Wodonga to Cranbourne = Matamata to Ruakaka

[Chief Stipe]

@Joe Bloggs and @nomates I've been to Wodonga and Echuca.  Nice little towns.  Although Wodonga is a twin town with Albury with a bridge over the Murray River separating them.  One is in VIC and the other NSW.

Wodonga to Cranbourne is the same distance as Ruakaka to Matamata.  Wodonga raced for AUD$32k same race at Ruakaka NZD$18k.  

[Chief Stipe]

@Joe Bloggs Kurow has a population of less than 900.

Wodonga = 44,000

Albury = 59,000

Distance between Wodonga and Albury 6km.  

[Shab]

That's good info. I was driving home watching last on trackside and thought Brodie Loy might have been a good bet having crossed the border to ride in Victoria but if he only had to cross a bridge then not as good a pointer as I thought.

No point going to other site now that the Gruff guy left. See if Shad can get him to post some tips for us here. Seems a sensitive type sometimes so don't rough him up too much if he posts. 

[Chief Stipe]

Yes I have fond memories of Echuca and then Wodonga-Albury all three on the Murray River.  Hired a little boat and outboard at Albury and fishing gear.  Had visions of catching a Murray Cod but ended up drinking champagne and sandwiches drifting on the Murray amongst all the parrots in the dead trees.

Echuca had all the Paddle Steamers and a great little racecourse. Stayed in a cabin surrounded by wild kangaroos and a big sky.  Contrary to some opinions I found the roads much better than ours.  Easy drive back to Melbourne.

Driving back from Wodonga went through a place that had a facility for looking after handicapped people.  They had special road signs - Beware of Handicapped People.  Appealed to my sense of humour.

[Chief Stipe]

Simple question if it's 30 minutes further to Wodonga from Cranbourne than it is to Wangaratta but allegedly the class of horse is a lot easier to beat at Wodonga and the stake is the same at both ($32,000) - which do you race at?

Even the Lindsay Park Racing Stable send horses there.

I gather the road condition on the Hume Freeway is not much different to our State Highway 1.

[hesi]

Seems that some are a bit challenged about which direction to send their horse lol

[Chief Stipe]

1 hour ago, hesi said:

Seems that some are a bit challenged about which direction to send their horse lol

Well even Lindsay Park Racing - Ben, Will and JD Hayes had a starter at Wodonga yesterday.  Ran 16 lengths last unfortunately.

https://www.racing.com/form/2026-09-01/picklebet-park-wodonga/race/2

[hesi]

Just shows that anyone can cherry pick to suit whatever narrative they are pushing, and it happens so often on social media

The TA vendetta is a great example of that

[Chief Stipe]

13 minutes ago, hesi said:

Just shows that anyone can cherry pick to suit whatever narrative they are pushing, and it happens so often on social media

The TA vendetta is a great example of that

Well every stable has average horses.  At least in the Australian States, particularly NSW and VIC, you options to pick up a good stake.  Sure just as hard if not harder for a horse to return a profit due to the competition but you have options to optimise the return.  

A stable with 70 to 100 horses will find it harder to win big races when up against stables that have over 500 in work.  The average is about 3% winning black type so if you have 70 horses you may have 2 black type winners.  With 500 horses in work you will have 15.  Of course statistically the 70 horse stabel one year might have 2, the next year none and the year after 4.

We see Waller and Maher on the Trackside channel week in week out picking up the trophies but overall are they really doing as well as they look?  

[Turny]

5 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

Well every stable has average horses.  At least in the Australian States, particularly NSW and VIC, you options to pick up a good stake.  Sure just as hard if not harder for a horse to return a profit due to the competition but you have options to optimise the return.  

A stable with 70 to 100 horses will find it harder to win big races when up against stables that have over 500 in work.  The average is about 3% winning black type so if you have 70 horses you may have 2 black type winners.  With 500 horses in work you will have 15.  Of course statistically the 70 horse stabel one year might have 2, the next year none and the year after 4.

We see Waller and Maher on the Trackside channel week in week out picking up the trophies but overall are they really doing as well as they look?  

 

[Turny]

Where did you get the 3% from? What was the source?

Are you talking just Group races or all Black type including listed?

Not sure the numbers are correct

[Gammalite]

6 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

Well even Lindsay Park Racing - Ben, Will and JD Hayes had a starter at Wodonga yesterday.  Ran 16 lengths last unfortunately.

https://www.racing.com/form/2026-09-01/picklebet-park-wodonga/race/2

Ben Hayes was on TV Saturday talking about Mr Brightside for the Memsie. and Said they have 300 in work.

That is a lot of training dollars coming in lol. But with that many horses, you would have to tolerate a LOT of slow ones. some that can't even win at Wodonga lol 😆

Probably something Chris Waller doesn't have to do with so many millionaire owners buying him race winning Stock . stock like Via Sistina and Ohope Wins , etc.   must be so nice to dodge the yearling sales.

GAI gets a lot of duds chasing those yearling sale horses. way more than Te Akau even. 

[Chief Stipe]

1 hour ago, Turny said:

Where did you get the 3% from? What was the source?

Are you talking just Group races or all Black type including listed?

Not sure the numbers are correct

A small subset of horses win Black Type races.  A horse that wins black type is more likely to win more than one black type race in a season hence the low percentage of horses that win black type.  Basically if the horse is elite it generally cleans up.  WINX and BLACK CAVIAR being extreme examples of that.

[Turny]

I didn’t ask that

Where is your authority or advice on the 3% you quoted? Where did that come from.

Have you made it up? 
 

I genuinely want to know as for the Waller stable I suspect they are beyond that, tho you factor in multiple gatherings

Not being obtuse, just want to conduct more research on what you quote, which I think is wrong

 

[Chief Stipe]

12 minutes ago, Turny said:

I genuinely want to know as for the Waller stable I suspect they are beyond that, tho you factor in multiple gatherings

Some stables do better than the average.  But on average of all the horses that race only 3 to 4% of horses win black type.

David Ellis has the best record of purchases from the Magic Millions sale that win black type.  At one stage it was 17%.

[Turny]

David’s is historical

You still haven’t told me where you got the 3%, where did that come from

If Waller has 500 horses, my calculation is he sits at 8.58%. Way beyond your 3%
 

Waller has 328 horses, so he sits at 12.49%
 

Just curious

 

[Chief Stipe]

47 minutes ago, Turny said:

David’s is historical

You still haven’t told me where you got the 3%, where did that come from

If Waller has 500 horses, my calculation is he sits at 8.58%. Way beyond your 3%
 

Waller has 328 horses, so he sits at 12.49%
 

Just curious

 

Waller has over 500 horses.  Recalculate.

[Gammalite]

4 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

Waller has over 500 horses.  Recalculate.

probably more than that even. Has 40 boxes and horses racing at Gold Coast alone. ones not even seen in NSW lol. 

Must be a luxury in life to train horses via computer ??😆  what a talent. 

 

[Turny]

13 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

Waller has over 500 horses.  Recalculate.

I did, you replied to it but still can’t tell me where your 3% comes from

Made up it seems to suit whatever

[Huey]

15 hours ago, Chief Stipe said:

 

David Ellis has the best record of purchases from the Magic Millions sale that win black type.  At one stage it was 17%.

Of course he does ,when the majority of the well bred Aus speedy juveniles head to the easiest jurisdiction for blacktype in NZ. 

[Chief Stipe]

27 minutes ago, Turny said:

I did, you replied to it but still can’t tell me where your 3% comes from

Made up it seems to suit whatever

I used AI for its most useful purpose - finding information.

Roughly 2% to 4.2% of global Thoroughbred racehorses achieve black-type status by winning a qualifying stakes race. [1, 2]

Race and Population Context

• Stakes Races Availability: Across major global racing jurisdictions, only about 2.9% of all scheduled races carry black-type status (listed or group/graded stakes). [1, 2]

• Runners Statistics: Broad database analyses tracking large populations of runners reveal an average baseline of roughly 4.17% Stakes Winners-to-Runners for top-tier sire progeny, and about 2.01% Group/Graded Stakes Winners-to-Runners. [1]

• Elite Equine Status: Industry overviews generally characterize any horse earning black type as falling into the elite top 5% (or fewer) of the total equine racing population. [1]

 

[Chief Stipe]

15 hours ago, Turny said:

If Waller has 500 horses, my calculation is he sits at 8.58%. Way beyond your 3%

Your calculation must be wrong.  If Waller's career win strike is 14% then according to you over half of his wins are black type.  That can't be mathematically correct.

Last season Waller had 59 black type wins out of 2,700 starts = 2.2%.

His season tally of 370 wins out of 2,700 starts equals 14% which is his career average.

[Chief Stipe]

I might add @Turny that Mark Walker's Australian winning average is the same as Wallers 14%.  Walker is sitting on 23% so far this season.

[Turny]

5 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

I might add @Turny that Mark Walker's Australian winning average is the same as Wallers 14%.  Walker is sitting on 23% so far this season.

 

5 minutes ago, Chief Stipe said:

I might add @Turny that Mark Walker's Australian winning average is the same as Wallers 14%.  Walker is sitting on 23% so far this season.

Walker has a current strike rate of 23% starters to winners?

Now you are dreamin surely

[Chief Stipe]

9 minutes ago, Turny said:

 

Walker has a current strike rate of 23% starters to winners?

Now you are dreamin surely