Jump to content

Leaderboard


Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation since 08/17/2019 in all areas

  1. 5 points
    SMEDLEY (D Danis) – Trainer C Stevenson was advised that a warning would be placed against the gelding and would be expected to be more competitive. 11 years old stone motherless last in four of its 5 last starts and 20 leghts behind the second last horse on Saturday in a rating 65 race and its had 119 starts . it would not be expected to be more competitive but the trainer should be warned not to be so cruel and expected to retire the poor old horse.
  2. 5 points
    I see JJ flush still pulling......(the chain) With all that has been going on in the last year, not appropriate for Mr house to be stirring the pot, I like the way he has traveled the big miles to small tracks to get wins etc......but he should stay off social media and just keep training winners...
  3. 5 points
    I get meet mature ladies or milfs, but funnily enough the ad underneath is usually for a funeral director!!
  4. 4 points
    Saville's CV needs checking - the guy is a fraud.
  5. 4 points
  6. 4 points
    Problem is social media is the toilet of the world, you have to be careful now as not everyone can take a "piss take" or see the lighter side of things, I certainly look at some of the things I say especially after getting a few beers on board and think, hope people see the funny side of that!
  7. 4 points
    Dead right it is a stupid comment by a licence holder. And then for another party, also a licence holder, to say "agreed", one just has to shake their head. Unbelievable, but not really at the same time. Newmarket, these private messages or posted within a Facebook group?
  8. 4 points
    A great funeral for Mrs B..marking the respect in which she was held, her style and graciousness. She was fondly termed ' Mrs Google ' and I remember Terry asking her one morning if she knew anything about ' the Hood' - the battleship that was, with the Prince of Wales, ordered to intercept the Bismarck. Oh, she said, I went to a cocktail party on the Hood the night before she sailed.
  9. 4 points
    Good stuff Westview thanks. It seemed like a bit of an overreaction from another Facebook group that took the video down from their page. I'm not sure what your reaction was to that overreaction, but please do not let that get you down (if it has), as you are doing a good job and giving the punters what they want. It's a credit to you, so keep up the good work.
  10. 4 points
  11. 4 points
    I see as per stipes McLellan was out injured. Nothing in the report re CG racing forward which is totally opposite of his normal racing pattern, i can maybe understand a one off showing a little gate speed but when he leads allowing the better backed stable mate a sweet trip in the trail all the way 1000000% a question needs to be asked of Craig Ferguson. Also a little surprised no question re Alexy's form reversal, but i guess that race was run to suit and he's done that a few times off a fast pace. Poor poor form in my opinion from a Mr V Munro and his 3 understudies. On a positive note great to see 2 old time trainers with cast off horses in Wayne Low and Dennis O'Connell getting winners,
  12. 4 points
    Dougie - I have some free advice for you with your lady friend; Do what I do, especially when the nags/jockeys/drivers/trainers/track conditions have let you down badly.... Make your good lady a card. Like the ones you made in primary school. Works whatever the occasion. Trust me she will love it. It's heartfelt, it's personal and the ladies love it. And you'll save good coin by not having to shell out money on a card from a shop. Why part with a fiver to buy a card, when you can make a card for free and then you can use that fiver that you saved, to go again, chase ya losses and invest it in the next at Snake Gully, Addington or like Happy says, Seoul! No need to thank me mate, just some friendly advice from one battling punter to another. Better Living everyone.
  13. 3 points
    Another nights racing at Cambridge concludes and once again the normal questionable tactics from the same drivers. In the last zac butcher seemed intent on softening up the leader allonblack for the stablemate who was sitting in the trail. Compare that to his drive in the previous race on grey stoke where he made no attempt whatsoever to pull out with 300m to go despite going easily. Maybe I give him too much credit for his ability, but just watch both races and you will see what I mean. . Same old same old,in my opinion.
  14. 3 points
    There have been so many short priced favorites winning everywhere lately. Its not just the all stars. Last week at winton they had 5 races in a row with the biggest dividend being $2.40. Then you get the whale giving out 3 every meeting with 90% of them paying under $2. I know he has a following and is a good selector but all you have to do is look at the tote and you could come up with the same tips. I see he did tip chase Auckland last night at $8, which was a big outsider by his normal standards. We don't have much idea of how these short priced favorites are effecting turnover as the betting figures seem to be a secret,i guess because they don't want the public knowing how poor they are. I find the southland approach to their maiden stakes interesting. They seem to want to attract Canterbury raiders to take the cash off the locals and to stifle the betting. I can't work that one out myself. Personally I think its a rather stupid strategy. Like it or not,what brodie says about the betting odds of the top 5 or 6 stables and how they dominate results, is a big turn off to the average punter, and is a major factor in turnover declining in my opinion.
  15. 3 points
    First horse I part owned was franco czar, its form was 12211 I was telling jim dalgety how it was going and he said to me, my old mate they don't keep winning. How rite he was the bastard never won again, for all that I certainly hope this horse proves him wrong .
  16. 3 points
    too busy swatting them off with your friday flash to have an investment
  17. 3 points
    Well Newmarket you just upped your profile to get more of these ads by copying and pasting them. You will notice in the top right hand corner of each ad is a little i and an x. Click on the x and give a reason why these are not appropriate to you. They will then stop. As for why you are getting them - have you visited a porn site lately?
  18. 3 points
    You can't stop people having opinions, and its unrealistic for chat sites like this to censor someone expressing an opinion like brodie has. You don't agree he should be allowed too, but why is it so sensitive a subject? The main point is he has never suggested House,nor anyone else using this product has done anything illegal. He does seem to infer that blood spinning helps performance. Hell I thought that's what people who promote these type of products want people to think. If House does use the product and does so within the rules then why on earth should it upset him or his supporters what brodie has said? I don't know what world some live in,but why can't people accept the truth,and that is a lot of trainers will use products that they believe are performance enhancing and are legal, especially if the cost can be passed onto to owners or results justify the cost of its use. Globe derby, you may get annoyed when someone may suggest anything that implies anything other than training skills will help improve performances. Where do you draw the line?Do you get upset if someone suggests some trainers use vets that can help performance more than others?
  19. 2 points
    No , no counsel needed. As a Harness person It matters not what the answer is really. But looking at your posts and churlish comments , I might suggest shoving a rocket up your arse and lighting it. Denigrating another site and losing whatever integrity you may have built up, smacks of someone without a moral or ethical compass. No critizism of other posters on here , they are entitled to there own opinions, and some very informed opinions one can see. Thanks Doug/Thomo/ whoever. Regards (Real name) Rees
  20. 2 points
    Yip, Brodie took this photo last summer while she was at his stables.
  21. 2 points
    He likes that comparison for some reason. Not so much the one with FTM.
  22. 2 points
    Working bee at 3 wasn't needed, our good friends at Ashvagas had everything in tip top condition. Thanks again
  23. 2 points
    Thought that would brighten your day.😀 Seemingly not.
  24. 2 points
    great to hear the brodster is back investing and winning
  25. 2 points
    Oscar B Where are the figures held for comparison?
  26. 2 points
    Yes and the 3.13 time was the Pacers record for 2600 20 odd years ago, exciting times when all the rest of the good trotters return. Hope dark horse comes back better, untapped potential left in her
  27. 2 points
    JJ flush very much uses himself as a personal butt plug on r.c for the right people.. sounds familiar.......but it's far too much for me to comprehend!
  28. 2 points
    I can help him pack
  29. 2 points
    That shipment left in March and was not purchased by Mr Wolf. However he has purchased over 230 standardbreds from NZ between 2012 and 2018. They race under saddle, in hopples. Well looked after at a pristine, new farm and facility. Only issue is it is freezing cold in winter and steaming hot in summer. Its a huge show of wealth to own a horse in China and Wolf's business model is to source and import in bulk, then sell them for a profit and, I assume, provide the facilities for them to be looked after and/or trained. They only buy colts and fillies/mares because they want to breed their own.
  30. 2 points
    Hey now, Murray's not the only horseman to have indicated his concern/frustration/ call it what you will, in the public arena. Discussion has been to-ing and fro-ing for ages in the printed medium as well as the more recent social media forums, road shows from both NZTR and the RB have rolled around the country either trying to ease our concerns, or adding to them, depending upon one's stance...to what end?9 You're right about the COL....however there are differing opinions as to whether our industry deserves or warrants govt. support - however much it might ' expect' it. Previous govts have said, racing, get your house in order - and I think I would have to agree with some very enlightened thinkers, that throwing more money after a failed business model is really, really stupid. The funding that Winston HAS managed to procure is too little, too late....but he will dine out on it regardless.
  31. 2 points
  32. 2 points
    yes convinced me as well just cashed out of endless drama and put it all on allaluune instead.
  33. 2 points
    Silly prick he is, why make jokes that he has something better than blood spinning?? He is a goofball, no wonder he targets manawatu.
  34. 2 points
    You would have to think that they consider a trip with our top ranks being weak.Grand circuit horses being fit and race hard might have it over ours with a lack of racing opportunity's . We do it to them often enough at age group level, maybe its payback time.
  35. 2 points
    Good management. And unless I am misinformed, that didn't include the arbitrary closing of tracks.
  36. 2 points
    Do I get a tip from the Brodster since I just saved you a bill of several hundreds of dollars from the psychologist you would have ended up visiting if you didn't get all of that out of your system?
  37. 2 points
    I think you have to take the view that everyone can learn from this. The whole point of the system/prosecution is to promote safer workplace practices through education. And I thought thats what the thread has been discussing. Totally correct.I feel so sorry for the young lady as her life has been totally ruined by a very misfortunite accident,.I hope she can pick up the pieces and enjoy her life as good as she can.Lesson for all to be learned from this terrible incident. When i was younger and involved with the horses in Riccarton we used to get a lot of the pony club scene wanting to be involved with the race horses.My boss would sent me alongside them on the quiet ones around the shoot at a trot only to see if they could handle a racehorse and ask my opinion if they would be capable to ride sufficient trackwork.More often then not i would have them restricted to trotting only around the shoot for a few months.Whist most were very capable horse riders,the racehorse is a totally different scenario as can be very highly strung.
  38. 2 points
    On the contrary Tommo, the principle here is an over-riding one. I believe Stephen McKee did not contest the charge, which means that any legal argument about consequences were restricted to penalty. Where does responsibilty start and end ? Think about this : these ' LIME' scooters are available to hire without any personal oversight by the ' owners'. It seems that you, as the hirer, have to make certain representations about your age, driving experience ( licensed? ) and as long as you can pay for the hireage, your'e on your own. So what happens if an under-age person 'illegally' hires one and gets wiped out by a bus while on one of these things? Does the owner/s of the LIME machine then stand back and say' not my problem, he/she said that they were old enough/experienced enough'....would this be classed as an 'accident' or would the next of kin of the injured/deceased have a case against the proprietors of LIME's ? McKee's case sets a precedent which could have very far reaching consequences in all situations where injury/death occurs, it's a lot wider then the racing industry.
  39. 2 points
    Well aware of all that. My original statement was fines weren't covered and they aren't. One wonders though why McKee's people would not have bargained on that to get reparation imposed rather than fines. Reparation would possibly be tax deductible as well(depending on how a judgment was worded) where fines certainly aren't. At the end of the day obviously the fines go to the government - reparation direct to the injured Whatever the circumstances this is frightening for the NZ racing industry
  40. 2 points
    This the same "niller" that has said Consensus is the best 2000m horse in Aus/NZ and has convinced McKee to aim for the Cox Plate? Aren't we all still waiting for Felaar to live up to its "potential"?
  41. 2 points
    I have no financial interest in the race but for more reasons than one, I hope Helena Baby absolutely smashes them.
  42. 1 point
    have too keep her away from the Methven bull frog lol
  43. 1 point
    Her being entitled to race was all I was pointing out CS. She ran like the $80 shot she was. It's somewhat rich to have a go at connections for racing racehorses in horse races they are entitled to race in. You pay your money you take your chance. Aalaalune began well and faded early on in the striaght to faster / fitter / better racehorses. There are plently of horses going around in races they don't have a hope in every raceday. Nothing to see here.
  44. 1 point
    See the 8 year old Monbet is nominated for Friday night. A field of 6 for the mobile 1980 and ratings range from 57 to 125. Be great if he can hold up as the trotting ranks are interesting enough as they stand now.
  45. 1 point
    I like franco huntington as well.i see its $9 on fixed odds. Also like race 5.blind spot at $41 on ff .
  46. 1 point
    R6 Davey Mac will probably be my only bet.I believe best trotter in this field.Beat Majestic Man fair and square 5 starts ago before breaking in next few starts.Has had good break and trialled well .Take on trust but worth the risk,way over odds @ 12/3.60 fixed and if trots all way will win
  47. 1 point
    "Weight rise handicappers running in the same class have an advantage" Effect of Weight in Horse Racing Do you believe that weight is an effective tool for controlling the performance of a horse? Do you think a horse going up 10lbs in the weights has less chance of winning today than last time out? Weight is one of the great racing conundrums. How can a few pounds extra on the back of a 1000lb thoroughbred influence its performance? Weight is used to handicap a horses chance of winning. The more successful the horse, the more weight it carries and the less successful it should be in future races. At the other end of the scale poor horses are allowed to carry less weight and should thus be able to compete on a more level playing field. The following tables should shed some light on how much of an effect weight has on a horse. First we will look at the performance of horses carrying more or less weight than their last race, next the performance of the handicapper, and finally the effect on extra weight influences such as overweight, penalties and allowances. Changes In Weight All Turf Runners Win% 108,413 carried more weight, 11,083 won 10.22% 113,231 carried less weight, 9,768 won 8.63% index 1.19 The above table shows the results of 221,644 runners on the turf since 1993. Horses carrying more weight than their last race won 10.22%. Horses carrying less weight than their last race won 8.63%. This means a horse carrying more weight than last time is 1.19 times more likely to win than one that is carrying less. Obviously, this is looking at all turf races and does not take into account horses going up or down in class which will have a bearing on the allocated weight. Turf Runners in Same Class Win% 38,120 carried more weight, 3,925 won 10.30% 40,950 carried less weight, 3,630 won 8.86% index 1.16 The figures are pretty much the same as in all races. Horses carrying more weight than in their last race, which was of the same class, won more than those carrying less. Turf Runners Handicap Today, Handicap LTO Win% 55,031 carried more weight, 5,474 won 9.95% 57,085 carried less weight, 4,217 won 7.39% index 1.35 The above table examines handicap races where the last race was a handicap too. Although the strike rates are lower, the index is bigger indicating that a horse that is rising in the weights is progressing in the right direction. Turf Runners Handicap today, Handicap LTO, Same Class Win% 20,108 carried more weight, 2,092 won 10.40% 22,380 carried less weight, 1,658 won 7.41% index 1.40 Weight rise handicappers running in the same class have an advantage. Turf Runners in Stakes Races Win% 36,323 carried more weight, 4,268 won 11.75% 39,751 carried less weight, 4,665 won 11.74% index 1.00 Weight change in stakes races has no effect. Turf Runners Handicap Today, Stakes LTO Win% 10,155 carried more weight, 1,035 won 10.19% 11,093 carried less weight, 1,412 won 12.73% index 0.80 The above table is the only one where it is an advantage to be carrying less weight. Turf Runners Handicap Today, Handicap LTO, Same Going Win% 6,046 carried more weight, 713 won 11.79% 6,710 carried less weight, 511 won 7.62% index 1.5 In this table we are looking at horses running in handicaps that run on the same going as last time. As higher weighted horses win more on firm ground and less on soft ground we want to be sure that changes in going are not causing spurious results . The weight rise horses have a much bigger advantage when the going is the same. The Handicapper The handicapper has a tough task. He has to allocate a rating for every horse that runs. His task is to assign a rating such that all the runners in a handicap will finish in one big dead heat. This has never happened, and probably never will. The following tables examine his performance over the years and in different race conditions. Each table shows the average winning distance that the winner beat the second placed horse. If the handicapper were to be 100% accurate the figure should be 0 as we would expect to see a dead heat. We will look at all handicap races run on good ground only. This is to ensure the figures are not influenced by soft or firm ground. Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1.7L 1.6L 1.5L 1.3L 1.4L Over the past 5 years the average winning distance the winner beat the second horse has fallen steadily from 1.7 lengths to 1.4 lengths. This can mean one of two things. Either the quality of horses in this country are getting better, or the handicapper is becoming more accurate. We suspect the later. The handicapper is sure to be utilising the advances in technology which enable him to rate faster and more accurately. Like the world record for the 100m sprint, will the average winning distance ever reach zero? Race Class A B C D E F G 1.2L 1.3L 1.4L 1.4L 1.5L 2.0L 2.0L This table shows the average winning distances for each class of race. As the class lowers the winning distance goes up. This could indicate that it is harder for the handicapper to rate lower quality horses, or that at the best races the competition is better. Some speed rating experts say it is indeed harder to win with their ratings in the higher class races as the difference in speed points is minimal, yet in races such as sellers there is a wide difference in ratings. Race Distance Sprints Middle Long 1.3L 1.4L 1.9L The margin for error is greater in longer distances. Ratings experts use a scale to adjust ratings for different distances, e.g. 5lbs=1 length upto a mile, 5lbs=1.5 lengths a mile to 12f etc., It could be flawed. Horse Age 2yo 3yo 4yo 5yo 6yo 7yo+ 1.2L 1.6L 1.5L 1.4L 1.5L 1.6L It is always thought that the handicapper underestimates the rating for 2yo's. The above table shows this is clearly not the case. It is 3yo's where the handicapper has the most trouble trying to get an accurate rating. This could be because many horses don't race at 2. The same applies with older horses. They may not have won for a couple of years and their rating may have plummeted too far. Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 2.0L 1.8L 1.4L 1.4L 1.6L 1.5L 1.4L 1.3L The early part of the season could be affected by soft going which creates bigger winning margins. But there is no evidence of this at the end of the season when it is as likely to have softer going. What we think is happening here is the all weather effect. Horses that have run just before the start of the season hold an edge over horses that have not run since last season. The situation does not settle down until May. Many punters do not bet until then because they want to wait until the form settles down. The handicapper can't do this he has to rate every race. Other Weight Influences Why would a trainer use a jockey that would be overweight? The trainer may be disgruntled when the handicapper raises his horse too steeply but do you see him arguing with the jockey for being a pound or two overweight? Could it be that trainers like to run their horses overweight to disguise form? If the horse runs badly his rating should go down. He can then drop in class (and rise in absolute weight) and enjoy the extra pound or two gain from not being overweight. The following table shows the average distance behind the winner of horses carrying overweight. Overweight 0lbs 1lb 2lbs 3lbs 4lbs 5lbs 6lbs 7lbs 8lbs 9lbs+ 11.1L 13.0L 14.9L 15.5L 15.5L 16.0L 16.7L 17.2L 21.2L 21.5L It is clear the more overweight a jockey is the bigger distance it will lose by. Penalty 0lbs 1-4lbs 5lbs 6lbs 7lbs+ 11.3L 9.0L 7.2L 6.1L 5.6L It sure is an advantage for a trainer to turn out his recent winner quickly before the rating is reassessed. The bigger the penalty the closer the horse is to the winner. Allowance 0lbs 3lbs 4lbs 5lbs 6lbs 7lbs 8lbs 10lbs 11.0L 12.2L 14.8L 11.7L 12.3 12.3L 8.5L 10.3L Overall apprentices are a bad thing. In standard races the only allowances claimed are 3, 5 and 7lbs. Each of these riders lose a 1.2, 0.7, 1.3 lengths more respectively than a professional. We are not saying you should avoid apprentices. You need to spot the best races for them, and you need to catch them when they are 'riding the wave'. This is where they have outclassed their allowance band and are close to dropping down a level e.g. from a 5lb to a 3lb claimer. Note that 4, 6, 8, 10lbs are allowances in Apprentice only races. The apprentices that are claiming 8 and 10lbs (for having only won a few or no races) are good value for their claim. Summary Increasing the weight on a horse will not disadvantage it: it will not slow a horse down. Similarly decreasing a horses weight will not speed it up. Overall weight risers will mostly beat weight fallers. The handicapper is becoming more accurate as the years go by. This is going to make it harder for punters to win in handicap races. Take a close look at penalty carriers. Don't be put off by the weight rise as the bigger the penalty, the closer the horse will be to winners enclosure. Overweight horses should be avoided but taken note of for future races. Article created 10-Feb-01. Stats may have changed since.
  48. 1 point
    blood thing is no myth should be shut down by MPI
  49. 1 point
    Odd that the link provided was written EXATCLY 10 years ago. How much have things improved after ten years have past?
  50. 1 point
    Totally correct ATA, on an individual horse basis. Don't care if I get heaps way wrong. Or whether I back the winner. Only care that on average, the ones I rate at value return more than the market assessment.

Announcements



×
×
  • Create New...