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Dougie

NZ Met Friday

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A few early thoughts.

R1 - One Apollo 

R4 -Globe Trekker

R8 - Kendra

R9 - Winterfell/ Didjabringthebeers Exacta 

R10 - Global Domination

R11 - Baltimore Jack 

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After browsing the fields, my thoughts.

R1 Cheerful. All Stars again.

R2  Heisenberg.  Should lead from that draw, but needs cosy trip in front.

R3  Cullens Bet. Wide but 4 from 5 at this distance and on the up.

R4  Springbank Lauchie.   Should be ready to roll, and parochial Williamson fan.

R6  Tailored Ellegance. Like what i have seen so far, should be close, and AS will have her in it. 

R8  Best Western . A very gritty horse this one, and has the draw to work with. My BB

R10  Gran Chico.  Beaten fav last start and sure to have support again.

Should be a good night at the Met.

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Burlington would have won last week if it had got clear air at any point down the straight - the biggest tragedy beaten I've seen in a long time. Draws one tonight, might be able to throw the tow rope out and get onto the back of The Moonshadow. 

There's already been plenty of money ($17-$12) but that's still good e/w value IMO. 

Also think Havtime is a very good place bet tonight. She should be able to hold up and then give the lead to Belle Of Montana if they want. The $3.50 is very nice. 

If you're having a bet early - make the most of the TAB money back offer. Flying Mister Ideal is $4 in the Heisenberg race (Race 2). Think he will trail him and he might be able to get him up the lane - but as long as he runs second, third or fourth - you get your money back and it's hard not see him finishing in one of those positions if he doesn't win, which I think he will. Think you get up to $30 back. 

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Thank you, everyone.

I will pretend to be knowledgeable with the fields tonight....if you can't make it, fake it....

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10 minutes ago, Happy Sunrise said:

Thank you, everyone.

I will pretend to be knowledgeable with the fields tonight....if you can't make it, fake it....

Smooth deal or one-way tonight happy? Will it be a lead trail usual A.S yawn fest or will m.p hold the front and try for an all the way?

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Counter Punch said:

hBurlington would have won last week if it had got clear air at any point down the straight - the biggest tragedy beaten I've seen in a long time. Draws one tonight, might be able to throw the tow rope out and get onto the back of The Moonshadow. 

There's already been plenty of money ($17-$12) but that's still good e/w value IMO. 

What is the definition of tragedy beaten. I think that implies the horse had no luck.  

I was on it last week, but thought it had several chances in the running to be positioned where the gaps were. I think a more apt description should be it was an extremely poor drive. I don't think luck was a factor last week.

i see it has drawn 1 tonight in a preferential barrier draw race,maybe that was a factor?.. 

I have it rated about 4th,but won't be on because of the driver. That's my opinion.

Edited by the galah

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Posted (edited)

 Re reading what I wrote , I think I should say I always enjoy reading what you select (c.p.)as they are always worth watching. My point really was to say why not call a sub standard drive what it was. No one in the media ever seems too, for fear of upsetting someone.

Edited by the galah
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2 minutes ago, the galah said:

My point really was to say why not call a sub standard drive what it was. No one in the media ever seems too, for fear of upsetting someone.

asked and answered i believe 

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1 hour ago, the galah said:

What is the definition of tragedy beaten. I think that implies the horse had no luck.  

I was on it last week, but thought it had several chances in the running to be positioned where the gaps were. I think a more apt description should be it was an extremely poor drive. 

I see it has drawn 1 tonight in a preferential barrier draw race,maybe that was a factor?.. 

I have it rated about 4th,but won't be on because of the driver

I guess you could take "tragedy beaten" as a sweeping comment. 

Sweeping in the fact that it doesn't imply either way whether it was driver error or just damn bad luck as to why the horse was beaten. 

In saying that, I've just watched the race again and am struggling to see many opportunities, if any, where he was supposed to get off the fence? 

There may have been some small opportunities down the back straight to forcefully get off the fence, but when a driver is parallel to the ground it can be hard to make those moves... 

 

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36 minutes ago, Counter Punch said:

I guess you could take "tragedy beaten" as a sweeping comment. 

Sweeping in the fact that it doesn't imply either way whether it was driver error or just damn bad luck as to why the horse was beaten. 

In saying that, I've just watched the race again and am struggling to see many opportunities, if any, where he was supposed to get off the fence? 

There may have been some small opportunities down the back straight to forcefully get off the fence, but when a driver is parallel to the ground it can be hard to make those moves... 

 

 Fair enough.  I was referring to early in the race when he was 4 back the fence,with no one outside him, and had The Kaik racing 1 length behind him looking for cover, He had a long opportunity  of about 300m to come off the fence.   At the time it looked a very poor tactical decision,and the run he got thereafter was his own making.  The better thinking drivers don't miss those opportunities.

I think its all a confidence slump for him,like you see in any sport.  

He will probably come out and drive a couple of wiinners tonight.

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I think Memphis tennesse ,gran chico and cast no shadow will be the trifecta in race 10. Don't know what order

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2 hours ago, the galah said:

I think Memphis tennesse ,gran chico and cast no shadow will be the trifecta in race 10. Don't know what order

Very unlucky cast no shadow last start. Tough field tonite, but one to watch

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I give up on Addington, just can't get a break their at the moment. Give me Oamaru on Sunday. 

The Guild in Race 3 for early players. 

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I can not be bothered having a go on Premier night when the iddd are so short and dominated by the same Stable.

Not earth the effort, give us a maiden anyway!

I am not too sure of the crowd size at Addington, but I am sure it won’t be very large, as punters are just not bothering to go out and back stinking hot favourites anymore!

Unfortunately Premier Racing to most punters has lost its gloss nowadays!

The Jewels will pull the people out due to it being during the day, and will be far better over the 1980m at Addington, but it will be dominated as usual!

 

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42 minutes ago, Brodie said:

I can not be bothered having a go on Premier night when the iddd are so short and dominated by the same Stable.

Not earth the effort, give us a maiden anyway!

I am not too sure of the crowd size at Addington, but I am sure it won’t be very large, as punters are just not bothering to go out and back stinking hot favourites anymore!

Unfortunately Premier Racing to most punters has lost its gloss nowadays!

The Jewels will pull the people out due to it being during the day, and will be far better over the 1980m at Addington, but it will be dominated as usual!

 

I usually love having a go at Premier nights, always some good money to be made.

Problem at the moment is I'm doing good form for Sunday meetings and expecting the same signs and types of performances to translate to premier meetings. 

My own fault. 

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8 hours ago, Brodie said:

I can not be bothered having a go on Premier night when the iddd are so short and dominated by the same Stable.

Not earth the effort, give us a maiden anyway!

I am not too sure of the crowd size at Addington, but I am sure it won’t be very large, as punters are just not bothering to go out and back stinking hot favourites anymore!

Unfortunately Premier Racing to most punters has lost its gloss nowadays!

The Jewels will pull the people out due to it being during the day, and will be far better over the 1980m at Addington, but it will be dominated as usual!

 

There was good money on offer. The Alister Black runners paid well, I put $10ew on both for Msoldwhitewoman... she is happy. The All Stars runner Virgil also a great price $4.80 for a well performed horse... I did alright. My good friend Brodie, I thought an astute punter like yourself would have backed all three of these runners?

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1 hour ago, OLDWHITEMAN said:

There was good money on offer. The Alister Black runners paid well, I put $10ew on both for Msoldwhitewoman... she is happy. The All Stars runner Virgil also a great price $4.80 for a well performed horse... I did alright. My good friend Brodie, I thought an astute punter like yourself would have backed all three of these runners?

Have to say that Vintage Cheddar is putting in some great runs, for Allister. Very talented horse in the making.

All around it last night,.couple of nice wins , a second and two running filthy fourths although Cullens Bet was a good run from out wide and comming from last. BB for me.

With Winterfell winning things will be hot come Jewels day.

 

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3 hours ago, OLDWHITEMAN said:

There was good money on offer. The Alister Black runners paid well, I put $10ew on both for Msoldwhitewoman... she is happy. The All Stars runner Virgil also a great price $4.80 for a well performed horse... I did alright. My good friend Brodie, I thought an astute punter like yourself would have backed all three of these runners?

I have basically got a policy nowadays of not investing on Premier meetings fullstop.

Too Much form, and most of the horses apart from the dominant stable are pretty close on ability.

Give me a maiden at Forbury anyday.

Great runs by the Alistair Black runners.

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13 hours ago, Newmarket said:

Very unlucky cast no shadow last start. Tough field tonite, but one to watch

I see cast a shadow ran the fastest last 800m in that race (54..98)so ran well especially given he was wide,but just got a bit far back mid race.

I thought last nights fields had reasonable betting races,but I  just seemed to be on a few that left their run a bit late.. Luckily I had dad n dave and betterfast in the 3 I boxed in the quinella in the last race. 

 

48 minutes ago, Brodie said:

I have basically got a policy nowadays of not investing on Premier meetings fullstop.

Too Much form, and most of the horses apart from the dominant stable are pretty close on ability.

Give me a maiden at Forbury anyday.

Great runs by the Alistair Black runners.

I agree with what you say, and  I prefer a maiden at forbury as well, however I still spend on the premier meetings unless you have races dominated by hot favorites and one stable. Youv'e got to speculate to accumulate type thinking.

The pools size is a bit of a negative,but you just have to ignore that.

My favorite place to bet on is southland, they have the same pool of horses so form is easier to read,they have a good group of drivers,who will nearly always give your horse a chance, their trainers know how to maintain their horses form, and they all seem very honest. I just think that is the southland way.

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On 17/05/2019 at 10:34 AM, Flagship uberalles said:

Smooth deal or one-way tonight happy?

Smooth Deal has lost his lustre. 

Mark Purdon or no Mark Purdon....

Will be interesting to see if Spellbound goes the same way.

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10 minutes ago, Flagship uberalles said:

They got his and preservation roads blood mixed up at the spinning factory!

damn the road is not in this weekend

i was looking forward to borrowing the brodsters armoured vehicle

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