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4 minutes ago, hesi said:

 

Barry is a good guy, gets a bit ropey at times, but I like him, 

Just fixed your spelling mistake for you.

"Barry is a good guy, gets a bit dopey at times, but I like him"

Dopey, yes, he doesn't factor in any track bias at all when it comes to punting. 

As to him now wanting to bring value into it.. well.....he tried to prove that he knew value by posting $20.00 bets but the thread where he tried to prove this went awol after showing close to a  $1000.00 loss.  Then his next attempt at a betting strategy has hit the wall after this time starting with a credit balance of $1000.00 which is now down close to $500.00 and after each losing bet the bet amount reducing in size.  Two strategy's and both showing the wrong side of the ledger. 

 

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The real issue ATA & Thomass (ignore all the smoke screen crap they put up) have yet to show how they use this so called bias information.

Pleae just answer the 2 questions below for us.

1) When do you start punting based on the bias? before the meeting even starts or when?.

2) Name the 2 most important factors you use to determine bets when you are factoring in the bias?.

No more other bullshit, please just answer the 2 questions.

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Posted (edited)

 

1.  Before and during. One must take note of both. (The former ie that's Before Barry) one only has to look at Te Rapa on Saturday and Wanganui yesterday. I made mention of the Wanganui bias the night before in response to a post by Weasel on another thread as advised  on the previous page. The winner was right against the outside fence and the runner he liked finished thirty lengths in arrears after racing centre track. 

2.  If there is going to be a fast strip and it is against the rail then I will look for a horse that can run right on or very close to the lead rather than one that is going to get back and then rely on luck to get through on that strip in the straight otherwise it will have to come wide in the slower part of the track.

All this was explained to you in the stuff I posted from the Australian website which you obviously have not taken in. I posted that as an independent view seeing that you continually refuse to believe Thomass or myself.

Perhaps if you take your biased thinking out of the equation (excuse the pun) and open your mind to the possibility that there are track biases then your punting bottom line could well improve. And that's VALUE!!  

Here endeth the lesson!!  

 

 

Edited by All The Aces
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29 minutes ago, All The Aces said:

 

Perhaps if you take your biased thinking out of the equation (excuse the pun) and open your mind to the possibility that there are track biases then your punting bottom line could well improve. And that's VALUE!!  

 

No thats not value, thats stupidity what you are suggesting, absolutely nowhere have you mentioned the price in the equation, all those leaders you could be backing could be horrific unders, good luck to you and Thomass as you are clearly going to need it.

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Posted (edited)

My god, Barry.

Just how thick are you?

Just because a runner taking advantage of the bias is paying unders, doesn't mean the track bias doesn't exist.

Also.... "value" is a term that differs from punter to punter. You could have a runner priced at $6 and it runs at $10 - that's value. Another punter could have the same horse priced at $14 - that's not value.

It's subjective and it's blurring your vision of being a knowledgeable punter - which you're clearly not.

 

Edited by SLB2.0
Needed more explanation for the brick wall
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3 minutes ago, SLB2.0 said:

My god, Barry.

Just how thick are you?

Just because a runner taking advantage of the bias is paying unders, doesn't mean the track bias doesn't exist.

 

Its not me who is thick, I am not disputing that a bias exists you dumb prick. I am disputing that its of any worth to a punter other than losers like the 3 of you, I cannot see any possible way to turn it to an advantage and as yet NO ONE here has shown how to either, plenty of looney theories but nothing you could use to advantage, so in my mind I dont look for a bias as other factors are far more important to consider.

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, SLB2.0 said:

Also.... "value" is a term that differs from punter to punter. You could have a runner priced at $6 and it runs at $10 - that's value. Another punter could have the same horse priced at $14 - that's not value.

It's subjective and it's blurring your vision of being a knowledgeable punter - which you're clearly not.

 

Of course it is you clown, value is entirely subjective, the issue is idiots like you and the other 2 are not even looking for it. You are too busy looking for imaginary bias that you can't demonstrate how to take advantage of.

The 3 of you don't even have a starting point reference to even begin to look for value, you are forecasting a bias before the day even starts, subjectively removing all inside barriers (wanganui yesterday) because of a tiny subset of data that shows outside draws winning or placing a massive emphasis on something that has a fractional weighting on the outcome.

 

I rest my case.

Edited by barryb
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Dumb prick and clown - ouchie.

FYI - this thread was started because I was bored with the continual "bias" of Te Rapa.

It had nothing to do with betting - or as you like to call it - value.

So fuck off please and stop hijacking every thread with your bullshit.

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20 minutes ago, SLB2.0 said:

So fuck off please and stop hijacking every thread with your bullshit.

Now thats not very nice, its no wonder you got the arse from Race Cafe.

The issue is you just don't like to be questioned on silly statements.

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1 hour ago, barryb said:

Its not me who is thick, I am not disputing that a bias exists you dumb prick. I am disputing that its of any worth to a punter other than losers like the 3 of you, I cannot see any possible way to turn it to an advantage and as yet NO ONE here has shown how to either, plenty of looney theories but nothing you could use to advantage, so in my mind I dont look for a bias as other factors are far more important to consider.

The above post just confirms your thickness Barry. 

So you admit that a bias exists yet you can't find anyway to turn it to an advantage. No wonder your punting schemes show a loss. FYI identifying a bias is just one piece in the punting jigsaw and was the point being debated on, not the other many aspects to the puzzle. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, All The Aces said:

So you admit that a bias exists yet you can't find anyway to turn it to an advantage.

Please tell us what bias will exist tomorrow at Awapuni & Ruakaka?

Before the races tell us what we should look for? sepcifics please.

ie: dont back anything drawn inside barrier 8,back nothing carrying 57 and above, these jockeys never ride well at biased tracks, horses with blinkers normally go well here & so on.

Edited by barryb

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1 hour ago, barryb said:

Of course it is you clown, value is entirely subjective, the issue is idiots like you and the other 2 are not even looking for it. You are too busy looking for imaginary bias that you can't demonstrate how to take advantage of.

The 3 of you don't even have a starting point reference to even begin to look for value, you are forecasting a bias before the day even starts, subjectively removing all inside barriers (wanganui yesterday) because of a tiny subset of data that shows outside draws winning or placing a massive emphasis on something that has a fractional weighting on the outcome.

 

I rest my case.

Class clown you is bazz...and your Rangatira...Martymcflyface...

Whanganui has an absolute historical bias...confirmed yet again by the Track Man for yesterday...the hotty of the day was never travelling on the inner surface...entirely predictable...

" a fractional weighting" Hell no...it was MASSIVE

But get this massive load of crap from your leader...

"And in a case where the outside is supposedly faster, I'd expect there to be more chance of me backing a runner drawn the inside than the outside.

Punters will bring the price down of those drawn out and runners drawn in will have longer prices than otherwise.

The shift will be based on guesses and punters are inherently stupid when it comes to over reacting.

Making it more likely that a horse drawn near the inside is now at the best value.

If the outside was the place to be, I'd simply expect my jockey to end up being there if the horse I backed was good enough. Same as in any race."

So this from someone who very rarely bets here...no wonder....expecting he'll be on mainly inside horses with little chance in the worst ground...

Thinking his rider will helicopter itself over to the favoured ground...or paying him off to knock everything else over to get there...

...thinking he's investing on robots perhaps?

Its simply ludicrous looney stuff

and you're a BELIEVER!

Vini vidi vichi

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Yes - this website exists only if people agree with Barry.

The nerve of this guy. At least Thomas adds some flair. What do you add to this site apart from always being negative and spouting off about your friends at the other channel.

 

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5 minutes ago, SLB2.0 said:

Yes - this website exists only if people agree with Barry.

 

Not at all, Thomass bought all this nonsense to this forum & drove away all the intelligent people, you came along and filled 1% of the void. Its just unfortunate the intelligence didn't rise with you joining.

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2 hours ago, barryb said:

Please tell us what bias will exist tomorrow at Awapuni & Ruakaka?

Before the races tell us what we should look for? sepcifics please.

ie: dont back anything drawn inside barrier 8,back nothing carrying 57 and above, these jockeys never ride well at biased tracks, horses with blinkers normally go well here & so on.

Firstly Barry you have to find identify what the bias is if there is any bias at all. A lot of times there isn't, you have to identify them when there are. Again. The fresh strip of ground on the inner at Te Rapa last Saturday after three previous meetings further out from that strip in the preceding month showed the inside 3 metres to be the superior part of the track . At Wanganui when it is a heavy 11 there the winner consistently comes from a position close to the outside rail. The winning results of both those meetings illustrated these factors perfectly.

There is no change to the track at Ruakaka from the previous meeting, the rail is staying in the same true position and the track was a dead 5 which will be the same or close to it again tomorrow (currently a dead 5). With no significant factor to create anything different to it then the track should play pretty much as it usually does up there.

At Awapuni, where it is a heavy 11, four of the first five races are jumping races, two hurdles and two steeplechases. the hurdles run against the inside rail and the steeplechase fences are situated on the outside at Awapuni so I would imagine they will open up those sections of the track before the last three races of the programme. How that will affect the track is hard to say. However, the inside two and half metres has not been used since the meeting held on 30 March and they have had four meetings since. If the hurdlers don't make a mess of the inside then that section, if it is not waterlogged could well be the place to be. (this is where full disclosed pentrometer readings would make a significant help to punters) and if I lived in Palmerston North I would be walking the track today to find out for sure.  However as I am not I will be taking note of how R4 plays out which is the first of the four flat races and then decide.

Now perhaps you might like to tell us why your value bets demonstration created such a massive loss and you pulled pin.  ☺️     

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46 minutes ago, All The Aces said:

Now perhaps you might like to tell us why your value bets demonstration created such a massive loss and you pulled pin.  ☺️     


Absolutely no issues there, I select many VALUE runners every race day, trying to be selective and putting up the biggest and best value is always fraught with risk when your S/R is around 12%. Unlike you I am not obsessed with backing winners, anyone can do that and 99% still lose doing exactly that. My focus is in finding horses significantly above my assessed true chance of them winning & then I spend a significant amount of time ensuring I take the best possible price, for me that is usually on a Saturday between 8:45 and 9:30am as the markets haven't reacted to punters much at this stage, for instance grabbing No Loitering 6 times its starting price, I note its in tomorrow and its been backed in from $21-16 already, it was not a bet for me even at the $21. In that race I don't think I will have a bet, but 2 I will consider is Inanna at $61 & Creative Genius at $15.

One I am definately going to back at that meeting is Rocanto $12, I have it rated at $6.50, now thats called backing to value, something you just don't understand. Its the 2nd best horse in the race yet its priced 2nd to outsider, Memories Only is terrible unders and so is Lucyinrio. Now dont get me wrong here, I am not saying they can't win, for me they will be winning at unders, thats the difference between what I do and what you 3 do.

 

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When did I ever talk about not betting for value? I simply said there was a track bias....didnt mention betting at all. Weird.

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Posted (edited)

You are making assumptions Barry. How do you know how, why and when I bet. I certainly have made no mention of it anywhere here. So what makes you think I wouldn't back Rocanto?  Three starts ago ran in a G3 race and no luck when trapped three wide without cover last two. Has drawn 2 and racing at his best distance. 

All my discussion with you has been related to when bias occurs and factors surrounding that. Nothing further. 

Perhaps you might like to explain to us all how the pattern, tempo or running of a race is factored by what the horse you have backed is paying and how that helps the horse win the race.  🙄     

Edited by All The Aces

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Barry continues to make a fool of himself. Assuming we all don't bet for value,  as if he knows something about us. Quit while you're behind.

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13 minutes ago, All The Aces said:

Perhaps you might like to explain to us all how the pattern, tempo or running of a race is factored by what the horse you have backed is paying and how that helps the horse win the race.  🙄     

I will do even better, I will give you all the tempos I am working too for tomorrow at Ruakaka.

Race 1 slow/mid

Race 2 fast

Race 3 slow/mid

Race 4 mid

Race 5 slow/mid

Race 6 fast

Race 7 fast

Race 8 fast

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2 minutes ago, SLB2.0 said:

Barry continues to make a fool of himself. Assuming we all don't bet for value,  as if he knows something about us. Quit while you're behind.

Signed up many more losers have you, fingers crossed they lose this weekend so you have a winning one. 

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3 minutes ago, barryb said:

I will do even better, I will give you all the tempos I am working too for tomorrow at Ruakaka.

Race 1 slow/mid

Race 2 fast

Race 3 slow/mid

Race 4 mid

Race 5 slow/mid

Race 6 fast

Race 7 fast

Race 8 fast

So again how does the price the horse is paying relate to the tempo/speed  of the race. 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, All The Aces said:

So again how does the price the horse is paying relate to the tempo/speed  of the race. 

ok here we go, education process for you.

Lets look at Rocanto's race.

Tempo slow/mid

In running positions I have predicted

2,8,3,6,5,4,1

Rocanto rated $6.50 by me current fixed $12 significant overlay for me, slow pace predicted, sitting most likely behind the leader in either 2 or 8, has a quality jockey to give it every winning hope.

For me the most important factor in determining the outcome of the race is the tempo, now unlike your bias factoring which is pure guess work, I can predict with some certainty (around 65% accuracy) the likely tempo based on the last 10 runs of each runner in the race.

Under what I mentioned above, the 1 Seventh Up is terribly placed to win the race, it may well do so as its the class act of the field but its going to need every single favour going its way & at $4.40 it can go around without mine on it.

 

Edited by barryb

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Posted (edited)

To help you even further, I dont have a heck of a lot seperating Rikki Tikki Tavi & Rocanto, except ones paying $2.50 and the other $12.00, I am wrong about 88% of the time but at $2.50 I need to be right a bloody lot more than at $12.

I am happy to put up all my bets for NZ tomorrow & prices & where taken if you and Sunlineboy do the same before the races start.

My current stats are for the last 2 yrs

394 winners, 3367 bets (11.7%),  av divi $10.74, 25.7% POT

My current run of outs is 40.

 

Edited by barryb

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