WINX v Lys

[Thomass]

Some great analysis from Oz form guru Dan O'Sullivan...

The Queen will be reading this and laughing..

As impressive as the win of Lys Gracieux’s was, it wasn't in the same territory as Winx with the champion mare rating between one and 3.7 lengths superior across her four-year reign.

Lys Gracieux's Cox Plate win on Saturday returned a 108 WFA Performance Rating.

By comparison, here are Winx's four Cox Plate ratings:

2015: 113

2016: 115.5

2017: 110

2081: 111

It's easy to get carried away in the euphoria of a stunning victory like Lys Gracieux produced, but that's where a consistent and objective rating process can help to provide some context.

When I assess the speed performance of Saturday's Cox Plate in conjunction with the past form and ratings of key runners, there's no objective reason to rate Lys Gracieux any higher than 108.

The time and sectionals were strong, but they certainly weren't what I would call world class. 

The style of the win has some extra merit and it's likely that if Lys Gracieux found a position up near the lead in the early stages (like she did last start in Japan) then I'm sure she wins the Cox Plate by further and rates even higher, perhaps challenging that 110 mark or a touch better, but we can only assess what happened on the day. 

That's not to knock the win in any way, it was outstanding and a serious Group 1 quality performance, but it's important to keep some perspective.

The ratings based assessors like myself have had Winx well and truly established as one of the top horses in the world for a number of years. Few would argue with that.

Prior to Saturday Lys Gracieux didn't have that standing, so just because she was an impressive winner of the Cox Plate, it doesn't suddenly elevate her into the discussion with a mare like Winx.

While it's unreasonable to compare her to Winx, Saturday's 108 rating win is totally dominant over anything we can foresee an Australian trained middle distance WFA horses producing at the moment and that's why she was so impressive.

In the last four seasons, there has only been four Australian-trained horses outside of Winx produce a rating of 108 or better;

Hartnell: 111 in his 2016 Turnbull Stakes win

Humidor: 109.4 when 2nd to Winx in the 2017 Cox Plate (the lowest rating of her four wins)

Arcadia Queen: 108.5 winning the 2018 Kingston Town Stakes

Jameka: 108 when she won the 2017 2400m G1 WFA BMW in Sydney by 6.5 lengths (over Humidor)

Our middle distance WFA races over the past couple of seasons have typically been won in the 103 to 105 rating range, which is short of what I call genuine Group 1 standard, so commentary about our current crop of WFA horses being below par are very much accurate.

It's important to keep this in mind when interpreting the visual impressiveness of Lys Gracieux's win. She beat horses that aren't of genuine Group 1 WFA standard.

On the positive side for Australian and New Zealand racing, both Castelvecchio and Te Akau Shark are new kids on the block, so with the benefit of their new found peaks this Spring, they will hopefully return in the Autumn and add some much needed credibility to our WFA ranks.

 

Edited October 28, 2019 by Thomass