Forums

Follow up question. "can we try and see how many horses that he has brought that have then gone on to be a Stallion?"   Excellent question. Tracking how many of David Ellis's yearling purchases become stallions is a great way to measure the success of his investment strategy, as creating a commercial stallion is one of the highest-return outcomes in the industry. Here is a detailed analysis, breaking down the process and listing known stallions sourced as yearlings by Ellis. ### **The Challenge & The Method** It's impossible to give a single definitive number because: 1.  **Volume:** He's bought well over 1,000 yearlings in his career. 2.  **Time Lag:** A yearling bought today may not retire to stud for 4-6 years, and its success as a stallion takes another 5+ years to judge. 3.  **Definition:** Do we count only successful, commercially viable stallions? Or any horse that stood a season? Therefore, the best approach is to identify the **notable, commercial stallions** that were **originally purchased as yearlings by David Ellis**. This highlights the "peak" of his strategy. ### **Key Stallions Sourced as Yearlings by David Ellis (Te Akau)** The following are stallions that began their careers as yearling purchases for Te Akau. Most were raced in the famous **Te Akau Shark/Diamond/Stars** silks. #### **Currently Active/Notable Stallions:** 1.  **Savabeel** (Redoute's Choice - Savannah Success)     *   **Purchase:** 2003 NZB Karaka Premier Sale, **Book 1** (Lot 143). Bought for **NZ$210,000**.     *   **Achievement:** Arguably **Ellis's greatest ever purchase and the cornerstone of his strategy.** Champion 3YO, multiple G1 winner. Now the **dominant sire in New Zealand** (leading sire by earnings for many seasons). Proves the model: buy a top colt, win G1s, create a sire dynasty. 2.  **Super Seth** (Dundeel - Super Strawberry)     *   **Purchase:** 2018 NZB Karaka Book 1. Bought for **NZ$130,000**.     *   **Achievement:** Champion 2YO, Caulfield Guineas (G1) winner. Now standing at Cambridge Stud in NZ. 3.  **Cool Aza Beel** (Savabeel - Miss Delighted)     *   **Purchase:** 2020 NZB Karaka Book 1. Bought for **NZ$400,000** (a joint-venture with Brendan and Jo Lindsay).     *   **Achievement:** Won the New Zealand Derby (G1). Standing at **Waikato Stud**, his success is a direct product of Ellis buying a top Savabeel colt. 4.  **Noverre** (Savabeel - Imposingly)     *   **Purchase:** 2019 NZB Karaka Book 1. Bought for **NZ$260,000**.     *   **Achievement:** G2 winner. Now standing at Hallmark Stud in NZ, another son of Savabeel purchased by Ellis. 5.  **Prowess** (Proisir - Donna Marie)     *   **Purchase:** 2021 NZB Karaka Book 1. Bought for **NZ$100,000**.     *   **Note:** A rare **filly** purchased with the clear intention of becoming a broodmare/possible stallion prospect. She won multiple G1s (NZ Oaks, Vinery Stud Stakes). While fillies don't become stallions, she represents the "broodmare" side of the same investment strategy and will be a hugely valuable breeding asset for the Te Akau/David Ellis breeding empire. #### **Important Historical/Former Stallions:** 6.  **Darci Brahma** (Danehill - Grand Echezeaux)     *   **Purchase:** 2004 NZB Karaka Premier Sale. Bought for **NZ$170,000**.     *   **Achievement:** Champion 2YO and 3YO, multiple G1 winner. Had a successful stud career at Waikato Stud, siring Group 1 winners. A classic Ellis success story. 7.  **King's Chapel** (Flying Spur - Floral Hall)     *   **Purchase:** 2004 Magic Millions Gold Coast. Bought for **A$160,000**.     *   **Achievement:** G1 winner in Australia. Stood at stud in NZ and Australia. 8.  **Mufhasa** (Pentire - Iguazu's Girl)     *   **Purchase:** 2007 NZB Karaka Festival Sale. Bought for **NZ$57,500**.     *   **Achievement:** An incredible bargain. 10-time G1 winner, champion miler. Stood at Rich Hill Stud. ### **Analysis: The "Stallion Creation" Success Rate** *   **From the list above, we can identify at least 7-8 clear, commercial stallion successes** (Savabeel, Darci Brahma, Super Seth, Cool Aza Beel, Noverre, King's Chapel, Mufhasa) that were yearling purchases. *   However, this list is **not exhaustive** and doesn't include:     *   Stallions who stood briefly with limited success.     *   **Current 3-4 year old colts** purchased by Ellis that are almost certain to become stallions. For example:         *   **Millane** (2021 Karaka purchase, NZ$400,000): Champion 2YO, by Savabeel. A certain future stallion.         *   **Molly Bloom** (2022 Karaka purchase, colt): By Savabeel, G1-placed. A likely stallion.         *   **Velocious** (2023 Magic Millions purchase, A$900,000): By I Am Invincible, a fast 2YO. High stallion potential if he wins a G1. ### **The "Syndication for Stallions" Model** Ellis's modern strategy often involves buying elite colts in partnership with a **Stud Farm**. For example: *   **Cool Aza Beel** was bought with Waikato Stud. *   Many top colts are now bought with the **Brendan & Jo Lindsay's Cambridge Stud**. This de-risks the purchase price and guarantees the colt a berth at a major stud, making the stallion outcome more likely and profitable. ### **Estimated "Success Rate"** *   **Annual Purchase:** ~60-80 yearlings (across NZ & AU). *   **Colts vs. Fillies:** Roughly half are colts/geldings (~30-40). *   **Stallion Prospects:** In a given year, maybe **5-10** of those colts are purchased with clear stallion potential (high pedigree, athleticism). *   **Ultimate Outcome:** From each annual crop, if **one** becomes a commercially viable stallion like Cool Aza Beel, it is a huge success. If one becomes a **generational sire like Savabeel**, it pays for a decade of spending. ### **How to Research This Further** 1.  Search for **"Te Akau bred Stallion"** or **"[Stallion Name] Te Akau yearling purchase"**. 2.  Use the **Pedigree Query** website or **Arion.co.nz** (NZ based). Look up a stallion like Savabeel; its "Sales History" will show David Ellis as buyer. 3.  Read **end-of-season reviews** from TDN or NZ Racing Desk, which often discuss the stud futures of retiring Te Akau stars. **Conclusion:** While the exact number is fluid, David Ellis has directly sourced and developed **at least 8 major commercial stallions** through his yearling purchases, with the **$210,000 purchase of Savabeel** standing as a transaction that reshaped the New Zealand breeding industry. His current model is systematically designed to repeat this success every few years.

(doing diligence, something that I recon is hard and harder to do in the Racing Industry..)  In a recent post is was mentioned about TA success as this sort of thing! I thought I would throw a couple of questions into Deep Seek. Q1:  David Ellis Yearling Buying Research Guide I need to research the buying of yearling thoroughbred horses brought at yearling sales in nz and au, I am interested to see how many horses and how much that David Ellis has spent?   Of course. Researching the spending of David Ellis, particularly at the Australasian Yearling Sales, is a fascinating topic given his dominance in the market. Here is a structured breakdown of how to approach this research, along with known data and trends. ### **Executive Summary: David Ellis (Te Akau Racing)** David Ellis, the principal of **Te Akau Racing** (NZ), is consistently the **single biggest buyer at New Zealand's premier yearling sales** (Karaka) and a major player at select Australian sales (notably Magic Millions Gold Coast). His spending is a barometer for the top end of the Australasian market. ### **Key Sources for Your Research** 1.  **New Zealand Bloodstock (NZB) Karaka Sales Results:** The primary source for NZ data. Their website has comprehensive archives. 2.  **Magic Millions Sales Results:** For his Australian purchases. 3.  **Inglis Sales Results:** (Australian Easter, Premier) – Ellis is active here, but typically less so than at Karaka and Magic Millions. 4.  **Racing Media:** Sites like **NZ Racing Desk**, **TDN (The Thoroughbred Daily News)**, **Racenet**, and **BloodHorse** publish annual sale wrap-ups that almost always feature Ellis's total spend and key purchases. ### **How to Find the Specific Data: A Step-by-Step Guide** *   **For Recent Sales (Last 5 Years):** Search for articles titled **"Te Akau Dominates Book 1 at Karaka"** or **"Ellis Again Top Buyer at Magic Millions."** These articles always quote his total spend and number of lots purchased. *   **For Historical Data:** You may need to compile data year-by-year from sale result archives or older news articles. ### **Quantifying David Ellis's Spending: Recent Trends & Figures** The numbers fluctuate yearly based on crop quality and racing goals, but the pattern is clear: **multi-million dollar annual investment.** #### **1. At New Zealand Bloodstock Karaka Sales (Auckland, NZ)** Ellis's spending is most concentrated here, primarily in the premier **Book 1** session. *   **Typannual Spend (Book 1):** **NZ$10 million - NZ$20 million+** *   **Typical Number of Horses:** **40 - 60+ yearlings** *   **Recent Benchmark Examples:**     *   **2024 Karaka Book 1:** Ellis was **Top Buyer**, spending **NZ$12,395,000** on **44 yearlings**. This included the sale-topper for NZ$1.3 million.     *   **2023 Karaka Book 1:** Spent over **NZ$14 million** on 50+ lots.     *   **2022 Karaka Book 1:** Spent **NZ$18.86 million** on 55 lots (a record-breaking year). *   **Context:** He often buys **~25-30% of the entire top lot (Session 1)** horses. His strategy is to secure the best-bred colts (potential stallions) and fillies for Te Akau's massive racing operation and to sell shares in to large syndicates. #### **2. At Magic Millions Gold Coast Sale (Australia)** This is his key Australian sale, where he targets ready-to-run types and commercial pedigrees. *   **Typical Annual Spend:** **AUD$5 million - AUD$15 million+** *   **Typical Number of Horses:** **15 - 30 yearlings** *   **Recent Example (2024):** Te Akau was the **2nd Leading Buyer** by aggregate, spending **AUD$13,055,000** on **22 yearlings**. This included the sale-topper for AUD$2.5 million. *   **Note:** He often buys in partnership here (e.g., with trainer **Ciaron Maher**). #### **3. At Inglis Australian Easter Sale (Sydney)** He is selective but targets elite, classic-winning prospects. *   **Spending:** More variable. Can be **AUD$2 million - AUD$8 million** on a handful of elite lots. *   **Example (2024):** Purchased 3 yearlings for **AUD$4,050,000**, including a Savabeel colt for AUD$1.7 million. ### **Strategic Analysis: Why He Spends This Much** 1.  **Vertical Integration:** Te Akau is a **racing powerhouse, a large syndication business, and a breeding operation**. Buying top yearlings fuels all three. 2.  **Syndication Model:** Ellis sells shares (often 40+ owners per horse) to fund purchases. The success of horses like **Melody Belle**, **Imperatriz**, and **Probabeel** drives demand for shares. 3.  **Stallion Creation:** Securing top-colts (e.g., **Cool Aza Beel**) aims to create future stallions for Te Akau Stud, creating a long-term revenue stream. 4.  **Sheer Scale of Operation:** Te Akau has stables in New Zealand (Matamata) and Australia (Cranbourne), requiring a large, constant influx of quality stock. ### **Estimated Aggregate Spend (Last Decade)** While a precise total is complex to calculate without compiling every sale, a conservative estimate: *   **Average Annual Spend (NZ & AU combined):** **NZ$25+ million** *   **Estimated Decade Total (2014-2024):** **Well over NZ$250 million** ### **Recommendations for Your Research** 1.  **Start with Media Summaries:** Search for "**Te Akau yearling sale spend 2024**" and work backwards year by year. 2.  **Use Sales Company Archives:** NZB and Magic Millions have "Sale Results" sections where you can search by buyer name ("Te Akau Racing" or "David Ellis"). 3.  **Look for Patterns:** His spending often spikes in years following major sales race successes (e.g., after winning the Magic Millions 2YO Classic). **In conclusion, David Ellis operates on an industrial scale unseen in the Southern Hemisphere. His annual yearling outlay consistently places him among the top 3 buyers across Australasia, with a clear strategic focus on the very top of the market at Karaka and the Gold Coast.** For the most accurate figures for a specific year, target the post-sale articles from the racing media outlets listed above.

All the more reason they should get creative and have a whole range of food trucks on course.  Knowing how negative people are in racing, I'm sure they will find a reason not to. Imagine, Ellerslie could turn both Boxing Day and New Years Day infield into a race day food truck extravaganza.  Every gourmet food, different ethnic food you could think of. Might even be worth going, maybe not, might run into the Dog, that would spoil it lol  

The problem with many Clubs is they don't have commercial kitchens nor even a standard kitchen that meet Food standards.  Cost a lot to maintain a kitchen and keep it up to standard.

Better than a stale ham sandwich

The Horseracing Integrity and Welfare Unit alleges that Tamara tested positive for the controlled medication methocarbamol after her victory in the Oct. 4 Chilingworth Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park, a finding that jeopardizes that stakes win.View the full article

Ryan Moore returned from rehabbing a broken leg to compete in the Longines Hong Kong International Jockeys' Championship and won it in the final race of the series.View the full article

This is from @Thomass original example. It was repeated 4 times and on the first occasion the horse clearly reacted by shifting its head to the side. I don't see how you could possible argue that this is accidental.

The question needs to be asked about the improvement of The Mandalorian! The money came for The Mandalorian first up for Michael House yesterday at Oamaru. The Mandalorian had 42 starts for Brent Weaver and to be fair was a very poor performing horse and showed very little ability, hardly worth having in work! The Stipes asked the question yesterday wishy washy and accepted that it was due to a change of training routine, that enabled this poor performer to winning first up in short time from a previous trainer. Yes we know a change if trainer can improve a horse, but why not kindly explain to the betting public what this so called change of training routine is? Just a cop out answer that needs a proper answer! Either Michael House is an absolute genius or Brent Weaver is a hopeless trainer!! The betting public need to be better informed of how a horse goes from useless to a winner in short time, as we have a Racing Integrity Unit don’t we?