Yr.no use a particular computer model which would be more reliable over a large expanse of water e.g. the Tasman Sea.
But as you know weather over NZ's unique geography is harder to predict. Reefton is a classic case where the wider weather pattern gives a general picture but local knowledge refines that further.
Rotorua is similar to Reefton in that it is effectively in a basin and the weather is affected by the terrain that surrounds them.
It was a field of 16, of which 2 were emergency’s who would have been scratched the evening before (not late scratchings). And then there were 3 more late scratched the morning of and that’s where the confusion has come from.
Rosie Richter originally draws 6 the second row (number 15) and would move in for the standard scratchings of the emergency’s but not for the late ones.
It’s definitely a tricky one to follow.