Chief Stipe

You didn't look at the second metric - yes equal on wins but 10 less runners as of 9 December 2025.

Zero evidence for that accusation.

Not if that turnover contributes to negative revenue.

Does it matter? If turnover is UP then that is a positive and should be celebrated.

No that isn't how probability works.

However the forecast models are significantly more accurate than they were 40 years ago. Their accuracy increases the closer you get to the day or hour. My partner uses the YR weather forecasting model and often I get told that YR says it will be such and such on a specific race day in two months time. I invariably laugh and no matter how hard I try to explain that we have a maritime and very variable weather pattern I cannot move her. As I say to her two weeks out most weather forecasts reach 70% probability or higher. A week out and they are getting close to 90%. If you are deciding what to wear I suggest she waits until the last 48 hours. If she wants to choose earlier I suggest that she at least waits until two weeks out and if there are bargains before then buy a hot and a cold one.

An opinion is subjective. A quantifiable prediction based on data past and present with an estimate of probability is different. If I say that based on the data I have I predict in will rain within one hour and that prediction has a 90% chance of happening. Then I can measure the outcome against that prediction. I'm saying that 9 times out of 10 I'll be right. But if I say Gammalite will win the first at Addington but offer no data supporting my selection and probability of it happening then it's just a hunch i.e. a subjective opinion.

Damn so @Huey 's posts could still be counted!!

Yes and no - the intial algorithms to start AI - machine learning are designed by humans. However the computational power is being used by machines to rewrite those algorithms. No - if AI says there is a 90% chance that it will rain within an hour that isn't opinion it is a prediction based on past observations and recorded data i.e. facts. The worst thing about AI at the moment is that it is much of what is produced doesn't come with its own measure of accuracy and variance. So

Only if that data was consistently and accurately collected. Many punters do it programmatically. The advantage to them of AI is machine learning and the ability of higher performance computers to tweak the punters algorithm. I'm disappointed @hesi that someone of your science background would fall for observational bias. The fact your algorithm didn't pick it up in the first place would suggest that you have subjectively chosen a factor to justify the result. AI would probably work best when ALL data was available but in racing the data/information available is imperfect.

How does AI differentiate between fact and opinion?

80% accuracy means what exactly?

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