Chief Stipe

John Messara intends wasting no time in acting on the mandate to head a wide-sweeping review of the … View the full article

A new partnership made the perfect start at Rotorua today. View the full article

The Canterbury Country Cups series is set for an intriguing finish at Methven on Sunday with the top… View the full article

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Kevin Gray is mindful of making the most of autumn opportunities for All In Vogue as the Pins mare s… View the full article

Little Avondale stallion Per Incanto’s fee for 2018 will remain at $15,000 plus GST. View the full article

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The stats that matter – Sydney Cup weights Article Author Greg Polson 12 April 2018 2 Comments What sort of a task does the 2016 Melbourne Cup Winner Almandin face in the $2 million Sydney Cup (3200m) with 57kg? At first glance Almandin looks well placed as a last start Tancred Stakes winner, we know Lloyd Williams and his team have won three of the last 20 Cups, Almandin is proven at the two miles so there are plenty of ticks. As always, it's back to the stats to evaluate the chances of the ruling favourite. A total of 276 horses have started in the Cup over the last twenty years. For the purpose of this article, I have categorised the weights into three categories, 57kg and above, 55-56.5Kg and less than 55kg and used a cut off starting price of $11 meaning we are only looking at horses the betting market perceives as having a strong winning chance. Of those 22 horses have carried 57kg and above of which 17 have started at $10 or less for two winners, that’s a strike rate of 11.7 percent. If we restrict the data to 57kg, the identical weight Almandin has been asked to carry on Saturday, the result is similar, nine runners carried 57kg with eight of the nine starting at $10 or less, (the remaining runner was a $12 chance). One win was recorded in this sample. Compare these figures to the other weight categories. Fifty horses were weighted in the 55-56.5kg weight range, 19 were at $10 or less producing six winners or 36 percent. The remaining 204 carrying 55kg or less had 61 starters at less than $10 and produced 12 winners at 19.67 percent. Make up your own mind but for me the 57kg is a significant test for Almandin. Here’s the Sydney Cup winners for the last 20 years to help you find a winner. Year Horse Trainer Jockey Barrier Weight SP Track Condition Start Prior 2017 POLARISATION Charlie Appleby Corey Brown 6 51.5kg $6.50 Heavy (8) 4th Doncaster UK 2016 GALLANTE Robert Hickmott Kerrin McEvoy 11 51.5kg $10 Soft (5) 3rd Manion Cup 2015 GRAND MARSHAL Chris Waller Mr Jim Cassidy 4 52kg $41 Soft (7) 3rd Chairman's Handicap 2014 THE OFFER Gai Waterhouse Tommy Berry 8 55kg $3.30 Soft (5) 1st Chairman's Handicap 2013 MOURAYAN Robert Hickmott Hugh Bowman 2 58kg $12 Good (3) 4th Chairman's Handicap 2012 NIWOT Michael, Wayne & John Hawkes Dwayne Dunn 2 55.5kg $4.20 Good (3) 4th Tancred Stakes 2011 STAND TO GAIN Chris Waller Rod Quinn 4 53.5kg $20 Heavy (8) 10th Chairman's Handicap 2010 JESSICABEEL John O'Shea Craig Newitt 10 52kg $5 Good (3) 1st Chairman's Handicap 2009 ISTA KAREEM Colin Little Craig Williams 6 52kg $6.50 Soft (7) 4th Chairman's Handicap 2008 NO WINE NO SONG Kevin Moses Damien Oliver 8 55.5kg $3.80 Soft (5) 1st Chairman's Handicap 2007 GALLIC Graeme Rogerson Steven Arnold 1 56kg $9 Soft (5) 1st Adelaide Cup 2006 COUNTY TYRONE Kris Lees Mr Jim Cassidy 8 55.5kg $15 Good (3) 8th Tancred Stakes 2005 MAHTOUM Kim Waugh Darren Beadman 10 52.5kg $3.80 Soft (5) 5th Tancred Stakes 2004 MAKYBE DIVA David Hall Glen Boss 8 55.5kg $3.50 Good (3) 3rd Tancred Stakes 2003 HONOR BABE Katrina Alexander Kerrin McEvoy 8 53kg $4 Soft (5) 2nd Chairman's Handicap 2002 HENDERSON BAY Neville McBurney Darryl McLellan 8 54kg $8.50 Good (3) 1st Chairman's Handicap 2001 MR. PRUDENT George Hanlon Corey Brown 7 50.5kg $8.50 Good (3) 3rd Easter Cup 2000 STREAK Robert Smerdon Steven King 1 53.5kg $9 Soft (7) 4th VRC St Leger 1999 TIE THE KNOT Guy Walter Shane Dye 3 50.5kg $3.70 Soft (7) 2nd Australian Derby 1998 TIE THE KNOT Guy Walter Shane Dye 3 57kg $1.85 Soft (5) 1st JRA Plate

Racing Minister Winston Peters has announced the government has appointed senior Australian racing e… View the full article

Local police have been called in to investigate the circumstances that led to a race meeting at Kilm… View the full article

Corey Brown is excited about his chances to win the Sydney Cup again - a race he had to win twice a … View the full article

Single Gaze will miss her scheduled swansong, with the Group One-winning mare withdrawn from the Syd… View the full article

As impressive as Hiyaam was in her front-running Vinery Stud Stakes win, it was what happened after … View the full article

Mighty Conqueror will took to make it two from two in the Nuggets Final before old bro Young Conquer… View the full article

He headlines a strong team for trainer Tony Herlihy on the night. View the full article

Sydney Cup winner Gallante won't run again till he strikes a wet track, Hamilton trainer Graeme Roge… View the full article

Gary Portelli has consigned She Will Reign's Oakleigh Plate run to the waste bin, but admits her mos… View the full article

Seen the result - maybe the winner was the omen bet!

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If it wins I'll make it video of the week!

Graeme Rogerson says talented filly Contessa Vanessa makes his job easy. View the full article

Well-bred youngster Lite My Cigar is in good order for his return to racing at Rotorua tomorrow. View the full article

Sydney’s weather is playing against Danzdanzdance’s bid for glory in Saturday’s A$1 million Gr. 1 Au… View the full article