Chief Stipe

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Which horse do you BACK - all of them that meet this criteria? Unless you want to go broke I doubt it. Which brings us to the point. Assuming that you don't back them all at the end of the day you differentiate what you back from what you don't by assessing the horse's performance relative to the field it is racing against. You also assess value in terms of relative price albeit in a rudimentary way. So to cut a long story short you take the long way to get to the point where someone like Mardi starts and finishes.

FFS Thomaas this post not only surpasses your normal level of illiteracy it is OLD NEWS and has been debated at length all ready.

How do you determine that a horse has "finally matured".....

Out of the hundreds of examples of this each year how do you choose which one's to back or do you back them all?

She's not competitive yet.

Maybe he should try them off in her next race in OZ after all when she races there with them on she doesn't seem to go that well. Of course she might be now suffering from one of your Pavlova dog theories and she only thinks it's race day when she has them on.

Yes the fact that a horse might be wearing blinkers for the first, third or umpteemth time bears little relationship to its ability RELATIVE to the field it is racing against.

This article has shyte analysis and this topic has been done to death. It appears you haven't read and or understood the article going by your Topic Title - "first time".....doesn't the article say third time? I'll give a couple of our more intelligent posters to reply then I'll close the thread because it is becoming boringly repetitive you going over and over and over your crap theories.

No you miss the point. Yes Yes Yes didn't wear blinkers Redzel did. As for first time wearers there is no statistical evidence to show that it makes a difference. So from a punting perspective it is a variable that is a WASTE of TIME including in your form assessments.

Rule Number(s): 638 (3) (b) (ii)Subsequent to the running of Race 6, the Valachi Downs 1400, an information was filed by Chief Stipendiary Steward, Mr J Oatham, against Licensed Class B Rider, Mr S Toolooa, alleging that as the rider of DANGEROUS PONY in the race, used his whip excessively prior to the 100 metres. Mr Toolooa was present ... (Feed generated with FetchRSS)View the full article

Rule Number(s): 638 (3) (b) (ii)Following the running of Race 6, the Valachi Downs 1400, an information was filed by Chief Stipendiary Steward, Mr J Oatham, against Licensed Class A Rider, Mr L Innes, alleging that as the rider of MAGNIFY in the race, used his whip excessively prior to the 100 metres. Mr Innes was present at the hearing ... (Feed generated with FetchRSS)View the full article

Well nearlyall my horses as young horses from foaling to breaking in were kept in groups. Secondly they were well educated early and trained well. They were never afraid of pushing through a gap and punched well above their weight. I see blinkers as a training option to modify behavior and only temporary. Maybe Redzel would have gone better in the Everest without them? Yes Yes Yes didn't need them.

I don't see your point. Alizee is in the Cox Plate and they didn't bother nominating Melody Belle for it. The race you refer to was a 3yr old fillies race over 1200m where she ran fifth. The next race The Surround she ran well down the track as did Alizee. Hardly a pointer to Melody Belle matching up to OZ form. As I said in an earlier post I do hope she pulls off a good win this trip as the ranking of the Livamol needs it.

A Queensland Grp 2 for two yr olds on a Heavy 8 track. Hardly a big form race. She raced next in the JJ Atkins finishing 10th - no Alizee in that race.

I forgot Bonneval - again the Murray Baker factor. Although her last good performances were outside the time I was looking at. Noted though that she showed that class factor that VE and Catalyst have shown before heading over the ditch. SLB - I'm not out to degrade Melody Belle's performance just because she hasn't won big in OZ - what I was pointing out was that her Triple Crown was soft compared to past editions. Sadly the quality of our Open, Grp races and WFA has been on a decline for over a decade now. Winning a Grp 1 in NZ was once a good indicator that you could compete in OZ. Not anymore.

The team at NZTR is sad to advise that long-time and much respected racing administrator Campbell Moncur died peacefully this morning after a lengthy battle with illness. Campbell had, since a cancer diagnosis 15 years ago, managed his health and family time while maintaining a tireless work ethic. Campbell’s career in racing goes back to the 1970’s when he was part of the team that developed and turned the key on the Jetbet tote system. His responsibilities grew over the years in a variety of roles through his years at the TAB, then with NZTR where he led the team as a General Manager or Acting-CEO. He also had periods of employment as CEO for Ticketek and for the TRAC group of racing clubs. The description of the roles he served are secondary to the person we knew, a natural and warm leader, a wealth of knowledge and judgement, who could easily laugh at himself or with others. His passion for our sport of racing was boundless. Our thoughts and those of all who know and admire Campbell are with his wife Mary, their children and grandchildren.

Because group racing is rated against a international standard.

Yes

Rule Number(s): Rule 869(4) and Rule 869(6)(b)&(c)Following the running of the GAVELHOUSE.COM ENTRIES DUE NEXT WED MBL TROT 2200m an Information was lodged by Senior Stipendiary Steward Mr S Mulcay against Junior Horseman Mr F Schumacher alleging that as the Driver of AS FREE AS AIR Mr Schumacher shifted his horse outwards from the two wide line passing ... (Feed generated with FetchRSS)View the full article

I haven't heard ANY trainer give a good reason for using blinkers. Without exception they don't know until they try them. As for your interpretation of my herd analogy I don't disagree. It's about early education. However what is apparent is blinkers application is too an inexact science to justify using in rating a horse's chance.

So based on that opinion you don't rate Melody Belle either. I would say that The Shark's run in the Epsom was full of merit - 3 wide the trip and ran the fastest sectionals. Kolding isn't a bad animal either. They ran 1.34 on a Soft 6 track.

I believe he is top line given how the way he has had to win and his sectionals. I like him as he seems to be a horse that can sprint twice and is tractable enough and robust enough to get out of trouble and not lose momentum. Even though the opposition wasn't much his Ruakaka performance was eye catching. BOAY made Verry Eleegant the video of the week when she won on the same track. I recall the same criticism about the class of opposition. Catalyst's Guineas win was a galloping lesson for the rest. I'm picking he will measure up in Ozzie in the Autumn just like his old man did.

What part of your response shows any constructive analytical rebuttal? I assume your Baldrick quote is self-analytical?

I don't take a positive approach to blinkers for a number of reasons: Every trainer that I have had anything to do with has never given a good reason for using them - it has always been "I might TRY using them" - none of them have known before hand if they will work or not work to achieve something they are not really that sure about. Often a horse will win with them on and then the trainer leaves them on in the belief that they made a difference; The stats I've seen published by Mardigras and others confirm that it is one variable not worth worrying about in your ratings. Except I tend to look at first time use as a negative; Why would a horse who is a herd animal want to be partially blinded from the rest of the herd? It doesn't make natural sense. The only thing that I've concluded over the years is that those horses that need them have an attitude issue or weren't adequately broken in or trained well in their first prep. The two best horses I've owned didn't race in head gear (they were tried and they didn't like it). They liked to see the field and where the winning post was. Neither of them were big strong horses but they were innately aggressive and smart thinkers. So when I'm looking at a field I get put off slightly by head gear especially for the first time and tend to focus on those who have clean heads and who eyeball their competitors. Of course though focussing on the other variables that help rate a horse's ability relative to the field it is racing in.