Tonight's three year old Group 1 @ Addington. How will it unfold?

[Walt]

We know the well worn routine by now.

Regardless if it's Barry or Mark the first priority in these big races for the Purdon's is to control them one way or another, usually via a numerical advantage. 

Barry only has one starter. Cold Chisel who has shown he can win good races on his own merit. Mark has three runners. A victory from two of his runners would be an upset win but Catch A Dream is the real deal and can win from anywhere. I was there on NZ Cup Day when he came from well back on the turn to snatch victory on the line. A remarkable win. I've also seen him sit parked and still dominate. He can win this race without any favours. 

Robert and Jenna Dunn have two runners and both are drawn inside Catch A Dream. 

Who will lead? I can see one of the Dunn runners leading but that could result in Cold Chisel trailing or even being three back. Difficult to control the race from there so I wonder if Zac will hold the lead knowing the main danger Catch A Dream would be comfortable to sit outside him parked. If that unfolds, the name Purdon will be controlling another G1.

What are Vessem and Walk By Faith going to do? It would be game over for both if they take on the leader and I do believe Catch A Dream will have the parked position. 

Not an easy choice for Nathan and his quality three year old Dreams Are Free. The lead won't be there for him and I doubt the parked spot will be either. If he moves early he will likely get posted and game over. Perhaps his best option is to sit back and hope it's a truly run race where he can bomb them late with one run at them. Not confident there as the Purdon's control G1's for themselves, not their rivals. He has got speed off the arm to have a dig for the top like he did last week but different story here.

Will it be a truly run race? I hope so. Perhaps the Dunn horses may have a say in that. 

Barring accidents, I think the quinella is sorted. Catch A Dream and Cold Chisel. Third will be decided by the horse that had the best run behind them. I think that will be Dreams Are Free......but only if Nathan is patient. 

Will be a fascinating race...............but it may well be another predictable control and dominate affair. 

[TAB For Ever]

Greg O'Connor picks 6 ,2 , 8 & 3.

Mick Guerin seems to favour 6 over 2.

I'll go 6, 2, 8 & 9.

Mark Purdon stepping back so some of X-factor may decline in the months ahead !

[Gammalite]

3 hours ago, Walt said:

We know the well worn routine by now.

Regardless if it's Barry or Mark the first priority in these big races for the Purdon's is to control them one way or another, usually via a numerical advantage.

Well said Walt . A Purdon FIRST 4 one way or another lol. 😁 you're on the money like Brodster.

Great drive by Natalie.

She stopped Williamson getting up outside her on the last bend and used her stable-mate in front of her to incredible advantage as well. 

Cold Chisel had every chance to beat them trailing. he did work a bit early with the Dunn's firing out early as you predicted.

Great race for the Allstars with winning the 3 yearold Sires Stakes 9 or 10 times in a row now. Merlin stopped the NZ Derby Winning sequence last year , but that winner tonight (Chase A Dream) looks the Derby colt alright.   thought that last year with DSD too lol. 😆. (2nd)

[Walt]

13 hours ago, Gammalite said:

Well said Walt . A Purdon FIRST 4 one way or another lol. 😁 you're on the money like Brodster.

Great drive by Natalie.

She stopped Williamson getting up outside her on the last bend and used her stable-mate in front of her to incredible advantage as well. 

Cold Chisel had every chance to beat them trailing. he did work a bit early with the Dunn's firing out early as you predicted.

Great race for the Allstars with winning the 3 yearold Sires Stakes 9 or 10 times in a row now. Merlin stopped the NZ Derby Winning sequence last year , but that winner tonight (Chase A Dream) looks the Derby colt alright.   thought that last year with DSD too lol. 😆. (2nd)

Thanks Gamma. I enjoy trying to work out a way a race could or even should unfold. 

I think Nathan got a rush of blood to the head when he decided to rush around the field with Dreams Are Free. Had I been the owner I would have been livid. The lead was never there for him. He had zero hope of getting to the parked position occupied by the All Stars. His only hope was to sit wide for the duration and still be good enough to beat them. He would have needed to have been a far better horse than every other runner in the field. I believe with sincerity that even Cardigan Bay couldn't have traveled the trip Dreams Are Free took and still paid a dividend. Very poor drive in a G1.

The run of the race for me by panels was We Walk By Faith. Olivia Thornley drove Catch A Dream to win the G1 on NZ Cup Day in a Lord Module type performance. She knows better than most how good Catch A Dream is.

I was astonished to see her rush around the field from well back and sit parked for most of the race giving the best horse in the race cover. You wouldn't blame a punter for questioning if this musical chairs move was purely to do Nat a huge favour. It 100% certainly made the difference with Catch A Dream winning and not winning. The fact We Walk By Faith only went down a nose was truly remarkable. 

If you watch what unfolded immediately after the race Nat was seen going out of her way  communicating with Olivia in a manner that looked exactly like a big THANK YOU.

Olivia should be very happy. If her position with the All Stars was not secure prior to last night, it certainly is now. 

It was a true G1 race and the best horse won but the one that most deserved to win ran a magnificent second.

Edited May 10 by Walt