First-Season Sires: An Elite Pair

[Wandering Eyes]

Uncovering a new elite sire is always exciting. By definition it doesn’t happen very often: a sire that can produce stakes winners at a rate of 10% or higher is hard to find. The last time we got two in the same year was 2009, when Dubawi (Ire) and Shamardal made their debuts. Could 2018 be another of those special years?

It will be a tough act to follow, but a handful of sires have advanced their claims in no small way during 2018. The top-class miler Kingman (GB) was first to make his mark, siring the brilliant G2 Coventry S. hero Calyx (GB) at Royal Ascot. Then No Nay Never answered with Ten Sovereigns (Ire) in the G1 Middle Park S. Let’s take a look at a few different metrics and see how the class of 2018 measures up to their predecessors.

Getting the most winners on the board is not always a reliable indicator of future class as a sire. Since 2000, no fewer than 20 sires are beating No Nay Never–the current leader–who has amassed 27 winning juveniles in 2018. Iffraaj set the bar high in 2010 with 38 first-crop juvenile winners. And it is not insignificant that the next two on the list are Dubawi with 36 and Invincible Spirit on 35. So, top-class sires can also put plenty of winners on the board early on in their careers. Bungle Inthejungle (Ire) (25 winners) sits in joint 24th place alongside Charm Spirit (Ire). Kingman, meanwhile, with 23 winners, is in 33rd place among all first-season sires since 2000.

When we examine the same set of sires by the number of first-crop juvenile stakes winners we get a completely different– and more meaningful–picture about the future prospects of the latest new sires. By this measure, the 2015 intake has two–No Nay Never and Kingman–among the best five sires since 2000. No Nay Never has sired six stakes winners, level with Oasis Dream (GB) and Frankel (GB), while Kingman has five, alongside Zoffany (Ire). Also deserving of mention are Bungle Inthejungle, Sea The Moon (Ger) and Garswood (GB), who have all sired two stakes winners in 2018–a commendable feat when you consider that is as many as the likes of Dubawi, Dark Angel (Ire) and Pivotal (GB) managed, and more than the great Galileo (Ire). This particular metric is far less susceptible to imposters than the winners’ list, but it nevertheless still contains some sires that ultimately were found wanting. Even better is to examine the freshman set by the average rating of their best 10 2-year-olds. By this measure, No Nay Never scores 103.4 and he’s behind only Frankel (104.3) and Zoffany (103.7) among first-season sires this century. Kingman also makes the top 10 with an average of 101.6. Any sire that can surpass the 100 mark is truly exceptional–at least until this point in their career.

Another new sire who has made us all sit up and take note this year is Australia (GB). This son of Galileo has a best-10 average of 96.8, which is excellent for one whose stock should thrive as 3-year-olds. To put his achievements in perspective, his best 10 juveniles have the same average rating as New Approach (Ire)’s; and his included three Royal Ascot winners. Australia’s first youngsters include group winner Beyond Reason, plus three Group 1 colts all rated 110 or more by Timeform.

Scat Daddy was a huge loss to the industry in general and the Coolmore group in particular. In No Nay Never they have a potential successor and his fee increase to €100,000 for 2019 confirms Coolmore’s faith in the young sire. The fact that he’s already had great success with Danehill-line mares bodes well for his future as there is plenty of that blood at the County Tipperary farm. At this early stage, it looks very much like he’s a speed influence, but one that could get top-class milers with the right mares.

Kingman, on the other hand, should sire horses that stay further. His 2-year-olds already have a higher stamina index than those by No Nay Never. His best son, Calyx, earned a Timeform rating of 120 for his Coventry win, the same mark achieved by No Nay Never’s Ten Sovereigns later in the season. It’s not hard to imagine a different hierarchy among the top 2-year-olds had Calyx not sustained a season-ending injury. Calyx is backed up by many 2-year-olds with great potential for his sire, none more so than the G3 Autumn S. hero Persian King. With another season under their belts, it will be intriguing to see what sires among this group are still at the top.

 

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