Levin Classic downgraded in latest Pattern Committee review

[Wandering Eyes]

The New Zealand Pattern Committee have recently released a report outlining their review of the 2023/24 racing season.

The committee, chaired by former New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing chairman Matthew Goodson, plays an important role in keeping New Zealand’s Group and Listed races to an international standard.

“The committee is a group of representatives, half are New Zealand Thoroughbred Racing appointed (Bruce Sherwin, Mark Freeman and Gus Wigley) and half are New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association appointed (Michelle Saba, Scott Calder and Nick Hewson), and one New Zealand Bloodstock nominee (Kane Jones),” Goodson said.

“It is our role to grade the best races in New Zealand in the year just gone according to global norms, using the handicapping ratings put together by the New Zealand handicapper, which in turn are moderated by the Asian handicapping group.

“All of our Listed races are assessed according to that. We then make decisions as to whether those races should still be Listed, and if so in what category, with the idea being that a Group One in New Zealand should be comparable to one in Australia, Japan, South Africa, UK etc. And likewise down to Listed level.

“It has considerable implications for the bloodstock industry in terms of pedigrees.”

The committee’s recent report has outlined a number of changes to the status of stakes races in the upcoming racing calendar, with the biggest announcement being the downgrade of the Levin Classic (1600m) from a Group One to a Group Two.

“The race has been struggling for quite some time,” Goodson said. “It had been moved back to mid-March. It was at risk of being downgraded last year, but the Asian Pattern Committee, to which our decisions are subject to moderation, decided to give it one last chance along with the move back to January.

“The race failed by a wee way to meet the required benchmark in terms of the best performance of the season by the top four starters and top four placegetters, so it has been downgraded to a Group Two.

“I think the Karaka Million three-year-old race has inevitably had some impact on it. It is an amazing event for the industry, but given the restricted entry, the race can only be a Restricted Listed race.”

The Avondale Cup (2400m) has also been downgraded from a Group Two to a Group Three, while the Mufhasa Stakes’ (1500m) status has changed from a Group Three to a Restricted Listed, given it will now be known as the NZB Kiwi (1500m) slot race.

“The Avondale Cup has been teetering for quite some time,” Goodson said. “The ratings were clearly below the required levels, so that has been moved down to a Group Three.”

Goodson said the downward ratings trend of staying races is particularly concerning, not only in New Zealand, but around the world.

“It has been gradual but possibly reflects the evolution of the breed,” he said.

While there have been a couple of downgrades to stakes races on the New Zealand racing calendar, there have been a couple of additions as well, with both the Aotearoa Classic (1600m) and Lisa Chittick Champagne Stakes (1400m) given Listed status.

“The Aotearoa Classic was one of the highest rating races of the season,” Goodson said. “It would be our expectation that it will go from strength-to-strength in the coming years. It is a $1 million four-year-old race that is well placed in the calendar, so you would think it would have further upside in the years ahead.

“The Lisa Chittick Champagne Stakes has clearly well exceeded the required minimum benchmarks for elevation. It has been close in the past and we think its place in the calendar should ensure it gets a good, solid field in the years ahead. We think it should easily be able to hold its new status.”

The committee has also placed warnings and alerts on several races, with seven Group One races having been placed under warning in the recent review.

“As soon as a race missed the required ratings, we put an alert on them, and if they miss it a couple of times we put a warning on them,” Goodson said. “After that, if it misses again then it may be downgraded, but we consider a whole range of circumstances about whether it is appropriate.”

The Gr.1 New Zealand Oaks (2400m) is one of the elite-level races that has been placed under warning, however, the committee believes additional prizemoney in this season’s race will incentivise a high quality line-up.

“The main concern looking forward is the fact we do have several Group One races under warning at the moment. I think most of them will stay up, but there is a risk to at least a couple of those in the next few years,” Goodson said.

“The New Zealand Oaks (Gr.1, 2400m) is of particular concern as a number of horses have elected to either target the (New Zealand) Derby (Gr.1, 2400m) or target the Sydney autumn races in preference to Trentham.

“We discussed a whole range of potential things that might be done and NZTR has pleasingly chosen to move some of the prizemoney that was attached to the Levin Classic to the Oaks and give it a $1 million stake.

“We would be very hopeful we will see a better outcome this season. It has really only been the last couple of years that it has deteriorated, so we are hoping that changes, particularly with the high stake.”

The Gr.1 New Zealand 1000 Guineas (1600m) is also under warning, with the Gr.1 New Zealand 2000 Guineas (1600m) placed on alert.

“The 1000 Guineas was a strange one in that it was an 18-horse field (last season) and every horse was a winner. Normally their (horses) ratings improve through the season, but it was an unusual season in that they didn’t kick on, so the race failed again.

“There is the perennial issue of travel to Christchurch, but I know a lot of thought has gone into travel arrangements so one would hope it can maintain its position.

“The 2000 Guineas had a warning placed against it at one point before it made its grade again, so that was removed. It continues to be a bit of a worry.”

Goodson said the committee has concerns about the conservative nature in the way three-year-olds are rated in New Zealand.

“It wasn’t such an issue in the season just gone, but we have been a bit concerned at the ratings assigned to New Zealand three-year-olds, because they do tend to be conservative unless that horse performs very well subsequently in Australia, which can prove to be difficult at the end of a long campaign,” he said. “Often, we will see some of the three-year-olds go on as four-year-olds in Australia and Hong Kong with higher ratings.

“I think those concerns are heard at the Asian Pattern Committee. It is certainly not something we can rest easily on in terms of out three-year-old races because we do feel our three-year-old racing generally matches up very well.”

Maintaining a healthy ratio of stakes races to overall races on the calendar is also a juggling act for the committee.

“We have had an issue with fewer races having been run in recent years, which means our percentage of (stakes) races has risen to well over six percent,” Goodson said.

“We chopped a number of Listed races out of the programme last year and removed any tolerance for Listed races failing to meet their required benchmark. We think that will keep the percentage under control, but it is still in the mid to high fives, which is a bit too high.

“It is going to be very difficult to add further races to the pattern, but we are encouraged that there will be slightly more races run this year. With the improving prizemoney we are hopeful that will continue to be the case in the future.”

While seven Group One races are currently under warning, Goodson said New Zealand Group Ones overall need to improve to keep up with other racing jurisdictions.

“In general, our Group One races are rating at the lower level of global norms,” he said. “Generally, our Group Two, Three and Listed races are fine, but is has always been a battle for our Group One races.

“As a pattern committee, we have to be very conscious, so we want them to be viewed as genuine Group One races in a global context. It is a real balancing act, as when you lose a Group One, you are not going to get it back again, but at the same time you have to be very conscious of that global view of them.”

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