Victoria Derby 2024 betting strategy, tips & preview | 2/11/24

Wandering Eyes · October 30

What	2024 Victoria Derby
Where	Flemington Racecourse – Melbourne, Victoria
When	Saturday, November 2, 2024
Prizemoney	$2,000,000
Distance	2500m
Conditions	Set Weights \| Three-Year-Olds
2023 winner	Riff Rocket (5) \| T: Chris Waller \| J: James McDonald (57kg)
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The time-honoured Group 1 Victoria Derby (2500m) headlines the opening day of the 2024 Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington on Saturday, with a capacity field of 16 set to duke it out for the $2 million prize. Can El Castello complete the Spring Champion Stakes and VRC Derby double? Or will there be another three-year-old who claims Group 1 glory for the first time?

2024 VRC Derby odds

On the back of a smart win in the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes, the Anthony Cummings-trained El Castello has opened as the $3.60 favourite with horse racing bookmakers. On the quick backup after winning the Moonee Valley Vase (2040m) last weekend, Nick Ryan’s Red Aces ($6.50) holds the second line of betting, just in front of King Of Thunder ($7.50), who finished third in the same race. Outside of those three, $10 or better is available for every other runner in 2024 VRC Derby betting markets.

2024 Victoria Derby speed map

Traditionally in the VRC Derby, the speed is on early — especially for those drawn wide looking to hold a spot approaching the first turn — but then the race tends to be a real sit-and-sprint affair after the first 600m. This year should be no different, with runners like El Castello, Hot Too Go, Oxford Blue and West Indies all looking to hold a prominent position from a wide barrier. A horse like Red Aces may kick up from barrier four, but expect the likes of Politely Dun, King Of Thunder and Saint Emilion to be in the second half of the field before making their runs late.

Continue reading for HorseBetting’s top selections and $100 betting strategy for the 2024 VRC Derby.

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Victoria Derby 2024 preview & form

Politely Dun may have been beaten by three lengths in the Moonee Valley Vase a week ago, but that race was really set up for those up on speed. The son of Dundeel made a mess of maiden company the start prior over 2000m, and everything this bloke has shown in his career thus far suggests 2500m will be right up his alley. Damian Lane will need to navigate a few speed humps from the rear of the field when entering the home straight, but if the breaks go Politely Dun’s way, the $15 on offer with horse betting sites seems ludicrous.

King Of Thunder was massive in defeat in the Moonee Valley Vase, finishing third despite being forced to sustain a long run from about 600m out. From barrier one, James McDonald will need to be at his world-class best to avoid any of those vulnerable at the staying trip, considering this bloke likes to get back and run on in recent times. Should the gaps come, however, King Of Thunder cannot be taken lightly.

El Castello is obviously the one to beat, but he will need to do some work from barrier 18 to find the speed and could be vulnerable late. The three-year-old colt held out Henlein in last weekend’s Spring Champion Stakes to bring up a fourth straight win this campaign. Josh Parr makes the trip to ride the son on Castelvecchio, and if the pair are afforded any luck early, El Castello may just put a space on his rivals. At $3.60, however, he is a favourite punters can take on.

From there, pick your poison for the back end of your exotics. Red Aces draws to gain an economical run in transit, Saint Emilion was impressive when winning the Geelong Classic (2200m), and Keeneland cannot be dismissed — especially with Hugh Bowman on board.

VRC Derby 2024 selections & best bets

Selections: