Kentucky Value Sires For 2025, Part 2: Stallions Under $10K

[Wandering Eyes]

Having dealt with the rookies separately, we now start our quest for value among those stallions already at stud. We'll be going through the pyramid by price band, and today kick off at the level most accessible to breeders on a budget.

But do not be deceived that we must be scraping the barrel here. If anything, candidly, there are more horses standing at four figures that one could trust–above all, for a breed-to-race program–than among far more expensive newcomers featured in the first instalment.

Whether one could also recommend them to a struggling commercial breeder is another story. But let's not forget that Into Mischief himself once spent a couple of seasons marooned on $7,500.

Stallions in this category broadly fall into opposite ends of the age spectrum. On the one hand, there are those that remain unproven, but whose books and fees are porous as everyone moves on to the next bunch of rookies. On the other, we find a few ageing stallions that have contrived a modest niche in the Bluegrass by a quiet accomplishment that will prove far beyond most new sires.

When you're operating tight margins, admittedly, these underrated types are seldom practical options. However low the fees, resources are required to see through a longer-term play against the nervous fads of the commercial market. But it is possible to turn these to your advantage.

Take highflying Oscar Performance as a template. He has been fully subscribed for the past two years. But those who stuck with him “on the bubble,” when cut to $12,500 for his third year, have just been able to offer yearlings from a crop of just 45 live foals–and were rewarded with an average yield of $145,894, up from $57,474 the year these foals were conceived. In other words, the time to double down is precisely when everyone else is getting cold feet.

Mystic Guide | Sarah Andrew

This fall, the market gave a cold reception to the first weanlings of several sires that will now find it very hard to gather support in 2025. But the reality is that they remain 18 months away from any meaningful test.

'TDN Rising Star' MYSTIC GUIDE actually achieved an excellent average–touching $60,000, off a $15,000 conception fee–from 11 weanlings sold, and no fewer than 154 mares had returned to him in the spring. Yet his fee has been consecutively trimmed to $12,500 and now $7,500. Anyone know if he can sire runners yet?

How much tougher, than, for others whose tentative toe into the market made fewer ripples. Yet some of these retain every right to replicate their racetrack prowess–and a couple, in particular, offer a ton of pedigree and talent at an unchanged $7,500.

GREATEST HONOUR, a grandson of Better Than Honour, never quite lived up to his brilliant emergence but has the usual Spendthrift pipeline behind him with 312 mares across his first two books. And HIGHLY MOTIVATED, whose page has been illuminated by two Grade I-winning siblings since his retirement, has received over 200 visitors and actually landed a six-figure score with one weanling.

My faith in both these horses is undiminished, and now is the time for people who talk about catching an unproven sire while still affordable to show that they really mean it.

As for those sires that just made their debut at the yearling sales, we can't deny that KNOWN AGENDA found it tough going. A lot of breeders are in flight: his debut book of 166 mares slumped to 47 for his third year and his fee has duly followed to $5,000. By the same token, however, nobody yet knows whether they can actually run and he will have a lot of juveniles trying to find out next year. He's still a GI Florida Derby winner out of a Grade I scorer, whose Curlin curve of improvement was arrested in its tracks.

Independence Hall | Louise Reinagel

BEAU LIAM made a much brighter start in the ring, processing 72 yearlings at $52,758 off a conception fee of just $6,000, including home runs of $270,000, $220,000 and $200,000. The 'TDN Rising Star' was a brilliantly fast horse, the quickest 6f maiden winner in Churchill's history on debut and author of 106 and 107 Beyers on his next two starts before derailing when second on his graded stakes bow. With numbers behind him, and a strong page to boot, he could easily get involved in the freshman title race next year. The kind of breeders who flock to a first-year speedball of this type have meanwhile largely moved on, and Beau Liam will have a couple of smaller books coming through. As we've said, however, that's exactly the kind of scenario where a bold and imaginative breeder will most want to get involved.

Another to have made a positive sales debut is INDEPENDENCE HALL, whose first yearlings averaged $64,185 (including a $350,000 colt) off a conception fee of $10,000–which has nonetheless now been clipped to $7,500. He covered 347 mares in his first two seasons before suffering the usual witless dip to 76 this year. That represents a significant footprint for an unbeaten juvenile (101 Beyer in the GIII Nashua Stakes) who held his form to wire the GII Fayette field at four, backed up by a very solid pedigree.

And what about the preceding intake, whose first juveniles have actually reached the starting gate? Some of these have laid down perfectly respectable markers but find themselves with their backs to the wall.

TOM'S D'ETAT didn't even contest a graded stakes until he was six but ended up winning two Grade IIs and a Grade I. Was anyone expecting him to be champion freshman? As it is, 15 winners from 41 starters actually represents a superior strike rate to McKinzie! Yet he will be trading at just $5,000 in 2025, down from an opening $17,500. And studmate GLOBAL CAMPAIGN, who garnered a 'TDN Rising Star' badge and matured at four to finish his career with a Grade I win and third in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic, is clipped to $7,500 from $12,500 despite producing a couple of precocious stakes winners already.

Global Campaign | Sarah Andrew

As noted above, conversely some proven stalwarts also become so neglected that they too drift down to this level. 'TDN Rising Star' THE FACTOR, JIMMY CREED and 'TDN Rising Star' FIRST SAMURAI are very accomplished stallions to be available at four-figure fees, and likewise the wonderful veteran SKY MESA.

He doesn't get too many girlfriends these days, but there can't be many more affordable ways of proving a mare than with a $7,500 sire of 79 stakes winners. Sky Mesa stands in the top 15 of active stallions by lifetime earnings, and his first three dams offer you Storm Cat, Affirmed and Round Table. As the advertisers used to say: “Hurry while stocks last!”

As ever, you know best what stamp and style will complement your own mare. Here, however, are three that look value to this subjective eye.

 

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze: DIVISIDERO
Kitten's Joy–Madame du Lac, by Lemon Drop Kid
Airdrie Stud, $5,000

Divisidero | EquiSport

This horse breaks my heart. His profile was so uncommercially “worthy”–a graded stakes winner five years running–that he has been confined to 25 starters from 38 named foals across two crops. But 11 are winners, two at stakes level, and his average earnings per named foal (four black-type performers include one at Grade II level) outrank every Kentucky sire in his intake, his closest pursuer being its top gun Omaha Beach.

It's not hard to explain why that should be. Divisidero is a dual Grade I winner (also beaten under a length in the Breeders' Cup Mile) whose family is just about the best in the book, featuring none other than Cosmah as fifth dam. He posted 13 triple-digit Beyers, including a track record at Belmont, and displayed all the teak and acceleration that you could seek for an expanding U.S. turf calendar.

While Divisidero might appeal most obviously to a breed-to-race program, he has actually registered a series of six-figure sales. (By the standards of his sire, he was himself a knockout as a $250,000 yearling deep in the September Sale.) Everything is in place except the volume, but that gives far-sighted breeders a princely horse at a pauper's fee.

Silver: CROSS TRAFFIC
Unbridled's Song–Stop Traffic, by Cure the Blues
Spendthrift Farm, $7,500

Cross Traffic | Sarah Andrew

We've charted the giddy ups and downs of this 'TDN Rising Star' for quite a while now and there's no reason to stop just because he's had so little ammunition over the past year or so.

As newly-crowned champion freshman, in 2019 Cross Traffic received 188 mares at $25,000, up from 60 at $7,500 the previous year. The resulting crop included Grade I winner Defining Purpose, a moral Grade I winner in the tragic Maple Leaf Mel, and lately Neecie Marie.

But the latter is Cross Traffic's only graded stakes winner of 2024. This dearth of action is explained by a 2020 book that shrank, preposterously given his trade the previous year, to 28 live foals. Some reinforcements are on the horizon, however: his last two books rallied into the 80s, and he can always hope for headliners among his maturing stock on the model of five-campaign millionaire Ny Traffic.

If his stud career is ever to stabilize, it is plainly not going to be in the elite tier, but Cross Traffic has delivered whenever he has been given the opportunity.

Gold: LOGGINS
Ghostzapper–Beyond Blame, by Blame
Hill 'n' Dale, $7,500

The 'TDN Rising Star' was my pick of the rookies last year and I see no reason to defect after he covered 137 mares in his first book. I had a similar feeling about Not This Time, when he started out, and they do have a striking amount in common.

Both ran the subsequent champion juvenile to a neck in what sadly proved to be their final start. Both also had the tougher trip in those races, Loggins having been exposed to a hot pace in the GI Breeders' Futurity before rallying bravely as Forte picked up the pieces (and jostled him in the process). That was a wild effort for a horse who can have learned little from his debut romp.

Loggins is out of a graded stakes winner whose own dam is a half-sister to two others; and the next dam was a multiple graded stakes-placed half-sister to Street Boss and the dam of Jack Christopher.

As our bronze pick demonstrates, ideally we'd prefer greater evidence of resilience. But you can't have everything at this fee, which is one-sixth of that commanded by his Futurity rival, and this horse evinced unmistakable Grade I caliber and has gone to a farm that excels with these brief meteors. In an era of such steep fees, Loggins is priced with remarkable generosity.

 

Value Sires–New Sires: The Breeders Speak

George Adams, Housatonic Bloodstock
To my mind, “value” with respect to stallions almost has to be about their ability to get you a runner. Worrying about commercial considerations should not be the focus, especially for a fee under $10,000.

With that in mind and given the predominantly commercial nature of the Kentucky stallion market, I was excited to be allowed to identify some regional stallions in this price bracket. There are some that really do offer exceptional value to breeders in those markets.

Blofeld | Sarah Andrew

GOLD: Blofeld (Quality Road–Storm Minstrel, by Storm Cat), Murmur Farm, $5,000.
My gold medal choice would be Blofeld, who stands at Mrs. Murray's Murmur Farm in Maryland for an advertised fee of $5,000.

The sire of 94 foals of racing age (oldest runners now 5), 67 of those foals have run, and 56 of them are winners (84%). Eight of them are black-type winners (12%), and eight more are black-type placed (for 24% black-type horses to runners).

Although he doesn't yet have a graded winner, Blofeld does have a couple of graded-placed runners and four open company black-type winners. His average earnings per starter sits at $101,710, and his highest earner has just over $400,000 in the bank–meaning the average is not skewed by a single outlier, as further witnessed by his median earnings per runner of $76,535.

With at least 55 yearlings about to turn two for 2025, and given that he's been the most popular stallion in the region for three years running, Blofeld's future looks very bright.

SILVER: Honest Mischief (Into Mischief–Honest Lady, by Seattle Slew), Sequel New York, $7,500.
For the silver medal, I'd nominate Honest Mischief at Sequel New York. Although he has just one crop of racing age, and while folks might have expected him to have gotten a bit earlier start, Honest Mischief is now up to eleven first crop winners, none of those below the maiden special weight level.

He has a pair of black-type winners to his credit, with Stone Smuggler and Sacrosanct having achieved state-bred stakes doubles on two separate weekends so far–most recently on Dec. 14 at Aqueduct when each scored in a $500,000 division of the New York Stallion Series–Honest Mischief had three of the four fillies make up the superfecta in Stone Smuggler's race.

He also brings a touch of commerciality to the table, with 19 of his first-crop of 2-year-olds having averaged over $94,000, following on from a first-crop yearling average of over $40,000.

With this kind of start to his stallion career, Honest Mischief looks poised to battle Bucchero (by Kantharos)–whose stud fee just prices him out of this bracket, making my job here easier–at the top of the New York sire ranks for a long time.

BRONZE: Beren (Weigelea–Silmaril, by Diamond), WynOaks, $3,500.
Finally, one of the stalwarts of the Pennsylvania sire ranks who I'd have included here until pretty recently, as he's now a bit long in the tooth, is Weigelia.

Very much his father's son, Beren retires to stud alongside Weigelia at WynOaks for the 2025 breeding season. He will get my bronze medal on the basis of his $3,500 stud fee, which includes special consideration to PA-foaling mares.

Campaigned from two through six, Beren won 12 of 35 starts and earned just under a million dollars. Seven of his wins were in black-type events, from six to eight and a half furlongs.

In this day and age when a racehorse's durability is constantly questioned, Beren had it in spades and came by it honestly. He has every right to pass it along at the same farm that's already done this before.

Tommy Wente (left) with Ken McPeek | courtesy of Tommy Wente

Tommy Wente, St. Simon Place
GOLD: Mo Town (Uncle Mo–Grazie Mille, by Bernardini), Coolmore Ashford Stud, $5,000.
Mo Town at $5,000 is hands down my gold medal value stallion in this bracket. I really think that he's way underrated for what he's got on the track. His percentage of stakes horses is impressive, and he has six black-type winners. I don't know why he's not getting more love.

SILVER: Echo Town (Speightstown–Letgomyecho, by Menifee), Coolmore Ashford Stud, $5,000.
Breed to race, you can't go wrong with Echo Town at $5,000. He has lots of winners already with his first-crop and stakes horses too, although nothing graded yet. I can only see them getting better at three.

BRONZE: Global Campaign (Curlin–Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy), WinStar Farm, $7,500.
Global Campaign has made a solid start with 15 winners. He's by Curlin so they are doing enough with more to come. They will mature and get better with age, and $7,500 looks like good value to me.

Independence Hall (by Constitution) is my bubble horse. He's got a big shot to make, and I'm kinda all-in on that horse. At $7,500, for what we sold, how can you not make money at that fee. He's great value with his first 2-year-olds running next year.

The post Kentucky Value Sires For 2025, Part 2: Stallions Under $10K appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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