Kentucky Value Sires For 2025–Part 3: The $10K Club

[Wandering Eyes]

If this seems a strangely specific category, that's because it is. There are two dozen sires standing in Kentucky at $10,000, a fee that attempts to preserve their dignity against a candid slide into the bargain basement. Though you're only a cent away from offering your stallion at four figures, you want him to look accessible without being low-rent.

Only a couple are newcomers, all of which were dealt with separately in opening this series. Otherwise this is chiefly the bracket of youngish stallions whose rookie vogue is spent, anxious for fresh momentum after launching either at the sales or on the racetrack. But there's also the occasional older sire, who has achieved an elusive viability through a record of understated accomplishment.

MIDNIGHT LUTE is one admirable example, with as many Grade I performers as he has crops, but most venerable of all is MINESHAFT who approaches his 25th birthday dignified by fourth place in the general sires' table. This, of course, has primarily been the work of Senor Buscador in the desert, but Mineshaft has had seven other Grade I winners across his career and another millionaire operating right now in Hoist the Gold. With those aristocratic genes, there can't be too many better options for affordably proving a mare.

One of his studmates had a similar outlier, Country Grammer, a couple of years ago. But TONALIST has never really been given much of a chance by commercial breeders despite actually delivering black-type and graded-stakes performers at a similar ratio to his neighbor Liam's Map, whose undoubted merit is reflected in a fee four times higher.

Another in the same barn, UNION RAGS, has meanwhile completed a dizzy fall from grace, having traded at $60,000 as recently as 2020, but has just come up with a sixth elite winner in Power Squeeze and surely rates as very good value now that he has reached this humbling level.

CONNECT is another Lane's End stallion down in price, having traded at $25,000 a couple of years ago, though his flagbearer Rattle N Roll has confirmed how well his stock matures by winning a graded stakes for the fourth year running.

It feels pretty remarkable that even siring the GI Kentucky Derby winner hasn't sufficed to elevate GOLDENCENTS from this fee. Admittedly his overall body of work remains more about quantity than quality, but those that look like runners have every right to prove so. Certainly Mystik Dan's breeders are glad that they used one of Into Mischief's first stars even at what has proved a career-high $25,000 (a fee Goldencents had earned through the endeavors of his own first crop, which included millionaires By My Standards and Mr. Money).

Goldencents was the most prolific freshman of 2018, but that brings no guarantees and last year's champion rookie MITOLE now finds himself trimmed from $15,000 (opened at $25,000) despite entertaining as many as 168 mares last spring! He has obviously always had volume behind him, and this year (as last) mustered a solitary graded stakes winner, but cumulatively Mitole boasts the highest ratio of winners to named foals among the principals of the intake.

Goldencents | Sarah Andrew

Among his peers AUDIBLE has taken a similar cut, his book having come right down this year, but he can point to sophomores like millionaire My Mane Squeeze moving him up the class rankings, from fifth as freshman to second this year.

Those to have launched their first juveniles this year include the sire of Grade II winner Minaret Station, INSTILLED REGARD, while HONOR A.P. is a horse I have always really admired. Vexingly underrated on the racetrack, he made a perfectly respectable start with his first runners for one that was never going to break out as champion freshman. Watch for his sophomores round two turns in 2025.

Standout performer at this fee at the weanling sales was DRAIN THE CLOCK ($55,038) who conspicuously sent hardly any foals home: 39 sold of 43 offered, an exceptional clearance rate. His speed has plainly made him of compelling interest to pinhookers. The trio that opened for business this year, meanwhile, all take a small clip from $12,500 despite successfully assembling a three-figure debut book: 159 mares for TWO PHIL'S, 158 for ZANDON and 102 for DR. SCHIVEL.

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze: TACITUS (Tapit–Close Hatches , by First Defence), $10,000, Taylor Made

In contrast to his days on the racetrack, where even a haul of $4.3 million could not wholly mask a win ratio that fell somewhat short of his ability, Tacitus appears to be making the most of his opportunities early in his second career.

Having covered 188 mares in his debut book, he was never going to leave buyers short of catalogue choice. But he processed 71 of 86 yearlings offered at an average $66,876, a striking advance on their weanling yield of $31,614.

That suggestion of auspicious physical development is matched by the progress of his page, featuring what is currently perhaps the most dynamic branch of a great dynasty (Best in Show is fifth dam). Full siblings Scylla and Batten Down have been doing their bit for their dam, herself of course a champion; and likewise Idiomatic (Curlin), whose mother is a sister to Close Hatches.

These genes might have earned Tacitus a place on a regional program even if he had never even made the track. As it is, he repeatedly demonstrated their functionality at the highest level, notably in outclassing the GII Suburban Handicap field by nearly nine lengths.

His juveniles seem unlikely to be early but whatever foundations he can lay in 2025, Tacitus retains greater potential than we would expect in most launched at this kind of fee.

Silver: CARACARO (Uncle Mo–Peace Time, by War Front), $10,000, Crestwood

Hats off to the team at Crestwood for doing what had begun to feel impossible. As a rule, the kind of below-the-radar success former 'TDN Rising Star' Caracaro has achieved with his first few juveniles tends to be smothered by the hundreds of mares sacrificed to launch what usually turn out to be mediocre sires on more industrial farms. Caracaro, however, has not only demanded attention but is now also receiving it.

Things started solidly, with the 26 members of his first crop through the ring as yearlings achieved an average of $41,745. Then a filly who reserved her sales dais for OBS in April topped the session at $775,000-all this, remember, off a $6,5000 conception fee!

Since then, 21 of Caracaro's 43 named juveniles have so far made it to the starting gate–and his seven winners include three stakes performers, notably Kentucky Juvenile Stakes winner West Memorial. His Ocala auction sensation, meanwhile, has turned into 'TDN Rising Star' and dual graded stakes runner-up Casalu.

And, just for once, the market read below the fold of the newspaper. Caracaro became one of those rare down-table sires to maintain his sales yield between first and second crops. Still more unusually, moreover, his book last spring soared from 67 to 151.

After the devastating loss of his sire, a pronounced Uncle Mo stamp on these horses will be prized more than ever. Caracaro rose through the ranks fast enough to run second in the GI Travers Stakes on only his fourth (and sadly final) start, and that ability was consistent with his page: all three of his siblings either a stakes winner or graded stakes-placed; while the second dam is GI Kentucky Oaks runner-up Santa Catarina (Unbridled). Bravo Crestwood, bravo Caracaro.

Gold: COLLECTED (City Zip–Helena Bay {GB}, by Johannesburg), $10,000, Airdrie

What a tough class in which to make your name! Justify. Good Magic. Here's Oscar Performance, emerging almost overnight as the heir to his late sire. City of Light chips in with Fierceness. Horses like Girvin and Army Mule punching way above weight. The list goes on. Yet elbowing his way through them all is Collected, after three crops, behind only the big two (Justify at $250,000, Good Magic at $125,000) on 16 stakes winners–and meekly asking no more than $10,000.

Six of these black-type scorers have won at graded stakes level, including two juveniles on the same card at Santa Anita in October, one of whom went on to be denied by just a neck at the Breeders' Cup.

Collected is getting plenty of turf action, which should definitely commend him to European pinhookers, among others, but was of course himself top-class on dirt (shocked Arrogate in the GI Pacific Classic, and beaten only by Gun Runner in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic).

His class is rooted in a pedigree that replicates the dam of Blushing Groom (Fr) top and bottom, with classy horses proliferating through the family from Europe to Japan. That's the quality you would expect of a horse co-bred and raised by Runnymede Farm, and he has now finished his career in the best of hands, as well.

Actually a Collected filly from Runnymede made $240,000 deep in the September Sale this year. So while he has had to sweat out the usual 'bubble,' welcoming just 53 mares last spring, his results on the track have given Collected every chance now to confirm himself one of the outstanding bargains currently available at any level of the market.

Collected | Sarah Andrew

Value Sires: The Breeders Speak

 TANYA GUNTHER

   In the hunt for value, factors I have taken into consideration include progeny racetrack success, commerciality and the potential for upside. At the $10,000 fee level, I have landed on the following three stallions.

 BRONZE: Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit), Spendthrift Farm, $10,000 

Mo Donegal is untested as a sire with respect to progeny performance at the track so my pick here is based on the balance of other factors that may work in his favor. He was precocious enough to win the GII Remsen Stakes as a 2-year old and had the class to win multiple graded stakes races as a 3-year-old including the GII Wood Memorial Stakes in a speedy time and a Classic, the GI Belmont Stakes. If I were asked to take a punt on an unproven sire, a son of a prolific sire of sires would be high on my list. The tragic and much-too -soon passing of Uncle Mo brings with it a poignant reminder of the legacy he leaves behind and I think there is a reasonable chance that Mo Donegal could add to this legacy and prove value at the 10k level. His first foals sold well enough and he has solid mare numbers at sufficient quality to be in with a chance. His fee is half that of his starting fee, which I think is a reflection more of the plethora of newcomers than anything else and could present an opportunity.

SILVER: Caracaro (Uncle Mo–Peace Time, by War Front), Crestwood Farm, $10,000

Another son of Uncle Mo gets the nod for silver: Caracaro. While it takes a scroll to reach his name on the first-season sire list, Caracaro seems to have outperformed expectations. He has shown some commerciality through respectable median and average selling prices in addition to a 2-year old sale session topper purchased by one of the most astute horse judges in the industry. He is also making a strong case for becoming a stallion that improves his mares, a quality I love to see in a young stallion. Together with the solid support in terms of mare numbers, Caracaro is on a positive trajectory. If he can continue the positive momentum with his first three year olds and next batch of two year olds, his current fee (reflecting a modest increase from the prior year) could prove value.

GOLD: Mitole (Eskendereya–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie), Spendthrift, $10,000

Champion first-season sire last year and current #3 ranked second-crop sire, Mitole takes gold by a pole. In 2024, he has produced six black-type winners and 13 black-type horses. He has also produced a lot of winners (96, the highest on the TDN second-crop sire list) at a strong clip of 51.9% winners/starters. Commercially, he has generated numbers that show his progeny have a chance to pay the bills as well, a nice option. With sizable books of mares throughout his stud career to date, Mitole also has a chance to avoid the dip in headline action which can happen when a young stallion's third and fourth crops come online and he can build on his current momentum.

TIM HAMLIN

BRONZE: Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit), Spendthrift Farm, $10,000.

I'm impressed with his foals. They have lots of balance and lots of leg and they should sell well as yearlings.

SILVER: Dr. Schivel (Violence–Lil Nugget, by Mining for Money), Taylor Made Farm, $10,000

Dr. Schivel has all the right angles for me. He is also is a very athletic-looking horse who should have correct, athletic-looking babies.

GOLD: Drain the Clock (Maclean's Music–Manki, by Arch), Gainesway, $10,000

It's all about the athleticism for me. Drain the Clock's foals were so balanced, correct and smoothing-moving. They look like fast, early runners.

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