Merlin the one to beat in tonight’s Auckland Cup

[Wandering Eyes]

By Michael Guerin

In an Auckland Cup littered with question marks punters need to decide which doubt that can put up with the most.

The second $250,000 Trillian Trust Auckland Cup on 2024 will be run at Alexandra Park tonight, the Cup moving back to the New Year’s Eve date after being held on May 24.

The only thing certain about this Cup it the date move is a win, May was too late and too cold to be holding Group 1 open class pacing races, but after that this becomes a Cup with question marks over all the serious players.

Perhaps the one with the least doubt is Merlin, who is almost certainly our best pacer and back on his home track with a favourable draw.

His question mark lurks after a below par fourth in the New Zealand Cup over tonight’s 3200m in November, when race rivals tonight Don’t Stop Dreaming and Republican Party both outshone him.

Merlin is so brilliant and bold over shorter trips you can see how he may not quite enjoy the bare knuckle brawl of a NZ Cup at Addington. But an Alexandra Park 3200m is more forgiving than the NZ Cup, by far our most brutal race.

Merlin is a two-time Derby winner and they often go on to win Cups and the last time he raced over 2700m at home he smashed his opposition in the Holmes D G, rating a fast 1:58 and pacing his last 800m in 54.2 seconds, suggesting he can still sprint at the end of a staying race.

Perhaps more importantly there is no NZ Cup winner Swayzee in tonight’s Cup and if Merlin can work forward to the lead there also looks to be no real pressure, not the sort that would turn this 3200m in a 3:54 lung burner.

If he gets a nice sit handy or leads and gets one easy 800m sectionals this should be Merlin’s Cup to lose.

“We are happy with him, we took him to Pukekohe for a day out the other morning  and he worked great,” says co-trainer Scott Phelan.

“I’d say he would be as good now as when he won the Holmes D G. I am not saying he is better, but at least as good.”

Don’t Stop Dreaming’s question marks aren’t over his staying ability but more his winning record, or lack thereof, in 2024.

He has only won 3 of his 16 starts this year. Two of them were at Menangle, the other a free-for-all at Alexandra Park and he has found ways to lose races a horse of his reputation should win.

Even co-trainer Mark Purdon says Don’t Stop Dreaming’s desire has come into question at times and he was pleased rather than thrilled with his fast work last Friday morning.

“We all know how good he is but it is up to him to step up and prove it now,” says Purdon.

Don’t Stop Dreaming’s best chance of doing that may be driven cold and swooping but that is a strategy which rarely pays Auckland Cup dividends.

Better Eclipse has already proven he can win an Auckland Cup so his question is whether he can win a stronger one, as well as the standing start which driver Greg Sugars admits is a coin flip.

Last start Invercargill Cup winner Republican Party should the fittest of the favourites and his New Zealand Cup third has boosted his stocks.

His 17 wins from 45 starts is not the usual record of a true modern day Auckland Cup winner but he has more ticks than crosses in the “reasons he can win” column.

Jolimont looks the only other serious winning chance but his question is whether this Cup comes six or even 12 months too soon?

The answer is probably yes because New Zealand’s two great 3200m Cups are rarely the races a horse arrives in, more the ones that confirm a crown.

A crown Merlin looks more likely to be wearing than his rivals by 7.30pm tonight.

Oscar set to become  trotting millionaire 

By Michael Guerin

One of New Zealand’s great staying trots could turn into a 200m drag race at Alexandra Park tonight. And even if it does which of the two favourites wins is hard to predict.

Oscar Bonavena and Muscle Mountain continue their long-running rivalry in the $100,000 Peter Breckon Memorial National Trot over the 2700 mobile, finally a Group 1 where the pair can get away from all-conquering Aussie champion Just Believe. 

Both are wonderfully talented trotters who have had a rollercoaster 2024, with their ageing bodies meaning while the heart may be willing the legs don’t quite pump as fast.

In the last two months there have been glimpses of their best, particularly from Oscar Bonavena who even beat Just Believe in the NZ Trotting Free-For-All at Addington.

Muscle Mountain was also back in the winner’s circle at Invercargill last start and their gate speed coupled with respect earned makes it seem certain they will be the first two off the gate tonight with Muscle Mountain likely to lead and Oscar Bonevena trail.

In a race with no rivals good enough to pressure them the Group 1 could be decided by whether Oscar can outspring the Mountain up the Alexandra Park passing lane.

“It looks a bit that way,” admits Muscle Mountain’s driver Ben Hope.

“We will be going forward and trying to lead and while Oscar has had the better of us lately I really liked the feel of got from him [Muscle Mountain] last week.

“He flew up to Auckland last week and Dad said he worked well yesterday so he will get his chance.”

If Muscle Mountain gets a relaxed run in front and is in full flight when the pair hit the passing lane it will take some serious sprinting from Oscar Bonavena to get past him.

But serious sprinting is Oscar’s speciality when he is at his best and the punters have already spoken, backing him in $1.65 while Muscle Mountain is out to $2.

Regardless of who wins a milestone looks near certain as Oscar Bonavena needs to only earn $12,442 (a top two finish) to become New Zealand trotting’s latest millionaire.

Auckland Cup Twilight bets – first race 3.13pm

1: Invisible (R4, No.7): No luck lately in better fields but has fine sprint record so can overcome wide draw.

2: Oscar Bonavena (R7, No.3): Likely to trail Muscle Mountain and should beat him for speed on their recent clashes.

3: Merlin (R9, No.7): Willing to forgive his NZ Cup battling fourth as tonight’s 3200m unlikely to be less brutal. Back home and with an ideal draw he is the one to beat.

4: Mr Kaplan (R6, No.7): Pulled too hard last start but could blast to lead tonight and be allowed to roll over the sprint trip. Good bet with small cover on Dance Till Dawn.

5: Taylad To Use (R10, No.8): Hard to follow but won similar races two starts ago and never got a crack last time. On a hard night to find value he could be the smokey.

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