Value Kentucky Sires For 2025 Part 5: $30k-50k

[Wandering Eyes]

First let's salute two horses in this category just emerging from surely the most competitive freshman title race ever. The lead changed hands between both, as well as McKinzie (now $75,000), through the final hours of 2024, with VEKOMA ultimately seizing the crown–partly through belated processing of a son in Panama–by $22,939 from McKinzie, with TIZ THE LAW breathing down their necks $9,334 behind.

In fact, his “extra” winner gave Vekoma a share of the North American record of 39 first-crop juvenile winners. Admittedly he was working from corresponding volume, having started 84 of 151 named foals. In contrast, Tiz the Law fielded 50 (of 89) yet still matched Vekoma (as well as Complexity, another with a smaller arsenal) with five stakes winners, two at graded level.

Breeders could sense their momentum last spring, when Vekoma welcomed another 200 mares and Tiz the Law reached 158, and both earned fee hikes for 2025.

Vekoma in particular reaped rewards with his second crop of yearlings, advancing his yield to $141,841 for 65 sold of 73 ($98,432 for his first crop). He's now $35,000 from $15,000. But Tiz the Law, who last year stood at half his $40,000 opening fee, continues to be underrated. (Surely unlucky with those controversial changes to the 2020 Classic schedule.) He sold 90 of 109 at $79,902, actually down from $99,835 for his first crop. With his traffic increasing, however, he looks a strong medium-term play right now.

Overall this is quite a fluid tier, between stallions on the rise and others whose fees are eroding. Having tackled the rookies separately, we start with five that opened for business last year–covering 1,009 mares between them!

Nationally (and on his farm) only Practical Joke and Justify exceeded the 256 welcomed by GUNITE, yet he gets a trim from $35,000 to $30,000 to keep the door revolving. Who knew that so many people wanted a piece of that Cowboy Cal mare! Actually his first three dams are stakes winners–and who wouldn't like a Gun Runner precocious enough to win the GI Hopeful yet hardy enough to return at four and beat Elite Power in the GI Forego?

ELITE POWER himself remains at $50,000 after starting with 203 mares. Again, this was an especially fast horse by the standards of his sire: you wouldn't have expected Curlin to get a dual GI Breeders' Cup Sprint winner out of a GI Kentucky Oaks runner-up by Vindication.

TAIBA, who takes the same clip as Gunite, covered 200 mares having bookended his year on the track meeting the contrasting demands of the GI Santa Anita Derby (off a debut win) and GI Malibu. As a $170,000 yearling who multiplied his value by 10 five months later, he offers pinhookers a seductive template.

FORTE also takes a mild trim, to $45,000, after covering 196 mares. That streak between GI Hopeful and GI Florida Derby identified a brilliant talent, and we love a Blame mare (same family as Essential Quality). He's priced much higher than his own sire, but we'll come to him.

Forte | Sarah Andrew

ARCANGELO's 154 mares represented full subscription at one of few farms still limiting catalogue competition for their clients. He emulated Arrogate as a late developer but ended up crop champion and his third dam is Better Than Honour.

The trio who started the previous year, all now $35,000, have just tested the water with their first weanlings. The one holding his fee is OLYMPIAD, who averaged $108,980 for 26 of 27 sold, and welcomed back 162 mares after opening with 228 (163 live foals). No secret where he dug out eight triple-digit Beyers: dam is a half to five graded stakes winners or producers, third dam is Chic Shirine.

Taking a second $5,000 trim is EPICENTER, who sold 21 of 30 weanlings at $122,619. His enormous first book (262 mares/217 live foals) was behind only Golden Pal, so shoppers won't lack choice. But everyone understands the system by now and he secured another 182 mares last spring. He has some peak European staying blood, converted by Gun Runner into a sophomore championship.

JACKIE'S WARRIOR has slipped from an opening $50,000 despite processing 22 of 26 weanlings at $167,409, and a second book that held firm (183/182). He's not the only one in this bracket on a blue-collar cross, but his genes were uniquely functional as a Saratoga Grade I winner at two, three and four. We'd always prefer sustained speed over mere precocity as a signpost to class.

The previous intake's most expensive sires duly filled the top three places in its yearling averages. Not in order, though, with ESSENTIAL QUALITY third at $186,356 for 65 of 87 sold, conceived at a class-high $75,000. He's down to $50,000, without having had the slightest chance to show whether he can replicate his great talent. Neighbor MAXFIELD conversely holds his opening $40,000 after beating $200,000 with 79 of 96 yearlings sold. Both will have matched fine pages with a ton of quality mares.

CHARLATAN also maintains his $50,000 opening fee after doing everything he was priced to do with 102 of 125 yearlings at $254,774. Some “autopilot” breeders evidently moved on last year, when he covered 138 mares after 445 across his first two books, but he could easily get involved in the freshman title after coupling the GI Arkansas Derby and GI Malibu inside five starts.

So where are all these young guns heading? Well, let's give them a target. Entering his 17th year at stud, here's Street Sense at $50,000: eighth among active sires, 89 stakes winners at eight percent including eight at Grade I level, his legacy already protected by McKinzie, Maxfield and Speaker's Corner.

Very few of these will end up with a resume anywhere near that. The single hesitation over Street Sense is that he's always been so closely shadowed by Hard Spun, who's half the fee. The one point of separation is market loyalty to Street Sense, last year still able to process 39 of 53 yearlings at $153,794. Those were admittedly conceived at $75,000, but slipping into this tier makes him look value next to everyone except his old buddy!

MACLEAN'S MUSIC is well established and maintaining reliable traction at the sales. His latest yearlings, who raised $135,739 for 87 of 110 sold, graduated from a book of 200 in 2022–a reward for his GI Woody Stephens exacta (Drain the Clock/Jackie's Warrior). He'll welcome this new wave, having blanked in graded stakes last year, but overall he's producing stakes winners at 6.5 percent and, now $40,000, kept the door revolving with 151 mares last spring.

LIAM'S MAP has settled at the same fee and continues to excel ringside. His latest crop averaged $168,072 for 88 of 95 sold, a striking advance on $124,024 in 2023. Stakes winners at 5.8 percent of named foals is steady enough, though he couldn't match that clip last year, but he's looking after breeders and was duly subscribed with 141 mares.

Liam's Map | Sarah Andrew

BOLT D'ORO bounces back to $30,000 from a giddy $60,000 last year, a fee that didn't discourage 132 mares but would have made his yield of $82,184 (76 of 96 sold) somewhat less gratifying than it was for those fortunate to have bred them at $20,000. Champion freshman in 2022 and behind only Justify and Good Magic in 2023, his half-dozen stakes winners last year came at a pedestrian rate so for now it's sensible just to steady the ship.

AMERICAN PHAROAH, clipped another $5,000 to $45,000, now inhabits a rather different world to his $200,000 introduction in 2016. But that helped him back to 158 mares last year, when his dozen stakes winners included three at graded level–besides two Group 1 scorers in Australia–and he hung in for a $156,371 average with his latest yearlings. Perhaps he warrants candid reinvention as a turf stallion; certainly Europeans should recognize him as very fairly priced now.

Elite in pedigree and performance, OMAHA BEACH needs monitoring at a seductive $35,000 (down from $40,000). He's served his purpose for the “autopilots,” who seemingly passed on his third crop–but his maturing stock on the racetrack will now be commending him to a different clientele. Fourth as a freshman, he dominated his peers once his first sophomores entered play: 11 stakes winners at 6.7 percent of starters, including in the GI La Brea and GI Natalma. With another 188 mares last year, moreover, he's one of many happily trading catalogue dilution for a loaded pipeline.

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze: OSCAR PERFORMANCE Kitten's Joy–Devine Actress (Theatrical {Ire})

$45,000 Mill Ridge

Can we keep calling him value after a third consecutive hike, the latest from $25,000? Yes, we can. For a stallion still getting established, Oscar has unequivocally volunteered himself for the vacancy left by his sire and English Channel.

In contrast with that pair, moreover, he's quickly achieved commercial traction. The fourth-crop yearlings Oscar Performance just sent to market were conceived at $12,500–but those who kept the faith through his “bubble” sold 19 of just 23 available at $145,894. His subsequent books have hit 160 and 169.

Hitherto Oscar Performance has a dozen stakes winners at 7.6 percent of named foals and five graded (notably GI Belmont Derby). He surely deserves European attention and, far from having reached his ceiling, will be soaring higher yet in years to come.

Silver: CITY OF LIGHT Quality Road–Paris Notion (Dehere)

$35,000 Lane's End

City of Light | Lane's End

Perhaps it's too early to pronounce him definitively back on track, but it certainly feels as though a nervy start–depending exorbitantly on one outstanding son–has bottomed out. Last year he was slashed from $60,000, despite producing a champion juvenile from his second crop, helping his book rally to 140 from 85. He subsequently came up with four graded stakes winners besides his standout Fierceness, including an additional Grade I winner in Formidable Man.

Moreover he enjoyed renewed sales momentum, $132,120 for 50 of 57 yearlings sold. His median, significantly, hit $120,000 from $75,000 in 2023, so a horse that arguably suffered from excessive expectations (granted the rare accolade of a fee hike simply for selling his first yearlings) is now looking solid value at this level.

His brilliance was underpinned by noble family and physique and, a fairly late developer himself, he'll eke fresh headlines from maturing stock. Even as things stand, 13.9 percent black-type performers to named foals stacks up respectably enough. Time for people to stop using Fierceness to knock him!

Gold: VIOLENCE Medaglia d'Oro–Violent Beauty (Gone West)

$30,000 Hill 'n' Dale

This horse might not work for everybody, as he may require some patience. But the fertility issues that have impeded his rise can now be turned to the advantage of any breeder prepared to adapt to his needs. Because there's no question that his reduced fee, in itself, represents terrific value.

Last year, in fact, he was initially announced at $60,000 before a revision to $40,000 as his farm sought the right balance for a book that would need careful management. The bigger number had looked fully justified by the caliber he was producing–most luminously champion Forte, himself meanwhile launched at $50,000. Last year Mullikin became Violence's fifth domestic Grade I winner, emulating Volatile the previous summer with an elite Saratoga sprint.

Only 72 mares rolled the dice last spring. But in a market inundated with routine commercial stock, Violence's needs–perfectly manageable as they seem to be–may result in greater demand than supply. Remember he has shown real crowd-pleasing qualities, as a physically flamboyant specimen whose latest yearlings again retailed at a six-figure average. While his track career was also frustratingly confined, an unbeaten Grade I winner at two never goes out of fashion. His good ones can be very good–and there are few sires at this kind of money so eligible to get you a real standout, whether at the sales or on the track.

VALUE SIRES: THE BREEDERS SPEAK

JOHN STUART

There are about 22 Kentucky stallions that fall in this price range and they are pretty much fully priced. Half of them have runners and of this small group, I see only four that could go up, creating value.

Gold: Vekoma (Candy Ride {Arg}) x Mona de Momma, by Speightstown) Spendthrift Farm, $35,000

The only question is whether they will run on and I believe they will. I bred nine in-house mares in year three and four and my suggestion is to breed mares with size and leg. He probably will stand for more as they run on.

Silver: Tiz the Law (Constitution x Tizfiz, by Tiznow) Ashford Stud, $30,000

I bet on his sire Constitution and always felt that this fellow could be good and he is. We didn't breed to him much but he is making it and you want to try to get on the bandwagon as soon as they show they can sire runners.

Bronze: Forte (Violence x Queen Caroline, by Blame) Spendthrift Farm, $45,000

Of the stallions with no runners (but not first-year stallions), Forte is my favorite. We sold him as a weanling so I'm not impartial here! I researched a set of parameters that I think great stallions must have in common and he's got all of them. He is also flashy, leggy and good-minded, out of a very classy Blame mare and he was expensive to buy.

Vekoma | Autry Graham

PETER O'CALLAGHAN

Gold: Vekoma (Candy Ride {Arg}) x Mona de Momma, by Speightstown) Spendthrift Farm, $35,000

An exciting young sire whose stock appear to be on the rise. If he continues his current trajectory, he's unlikely to be in this price bracket this time next year.

Silver: Violence (Medaglia d'Oro x Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Hill 'n' Dale, $30,000

A very solid horse who has sired Grade I winners or Grade I-caliber horses in every crop including a champion 2-year-old. Among his first sons to retire is Volatile, who is making a nice start to his stud career. That bodes well for Violence and he's now at a price point that breeders can make money using him.

Bronze: Maclean's Music (Distorted Humor x Forest Music, by Unbridled's Song) Hill 'n' Dale, $40,000

Another very solid horse who has sired some top runners including Jackie's Warrior, a champion whose first weanlings were very impressive. These horses were sired from a modest stud fee. He has done it the hard way and has crops in the pipeline that should serve him well on the track the next few years. At 40k, breeders can make money with him while having a good chance to breed a runner.

Honorable Mentions: Liam's Map ($40,000), City of Light ($35,000), Tiz the Law ($30,000), Taiba ($30,000) and the recently retired Muth ($35,000).

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