How Will Amo Fare Out And Who Is The Nap Of The First-Season Sires? 10 Predictions For 2025

[Wandering Eyes]

What is in store for the bloodstock industry in 2025? From a shoo-in for the first-season sires' championship, market predictions, a word or two on Amo Racing and much more, TDN Europe's Brian Sheerin has come up with 10 predictions for the new year.

Yearling Sale Momentum Can Continue Into The Breeze-Up Market

It can be hard enough to predict how strong or weak trade will be on the eve of a sale, not to mention three or four months out, but there are a few good reasons to believe why this year could throw up more big-money lots at the breeze-up sales than ever before. 

For starters, the competition for the raw material was stronger than ever at the European yearling sales last year. That was largely down to Kia Joorabchian's involvement. Breeze-up handlers had to really stretch to secure the horses they wanted. As a result, many operators stated that, while their overall spend may have been up, the numbers that they are working with this season are down. 

That can only be a good thing for the breeze-up market. Lest we forget that it was only last July when the Breeze-Up Consignors Association (BUCA) called on Goffs and Goresbridge to reconsider plans to stage two new sales respectively, saying there is only a finite demand (roughly 1,200) for breeze-up horses. 

Goresbridge has already knocked its plans for a new sale on the head while the Goffs Derby Breeze-Up Sale is understood to be shaping up into a small but select offering of back-end types. So, in short, the supply does not appear to have exceeded the demand here and we should expect smaller books at the major breeze-up sales. 

On top of that, the market in Europe seems to have developed in such a way that the top horses have never been worth more while the middle to lower bracket has never been trickier.

The Goffs Orby Sale, Book 1 and 2 of the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale and even the October Yearling Sale at Arqana were very strong. If that sort of momentum was to continue into the breeze-ups, and there's no reason to suggest it won't, we could be in for another sale season where records are broken. 

Last year saw 12 horses make half a million or more at the Craven and at Arqana, including three millionaires. My money is on that number being bettered later this spring. 

Goffs To Try And Make Some Ground In The Online Sphere

This should be the year where Goffs tries to move in on the online sales space that Tattersalls has dominated so well in the past few years. What started as a necessity to continue trading through Covid has blossomed into a whole new arm of the company that continues to go from strength to strength with an online sale every month. 

Up until now, Tattersalls Online has been afforded an easy lead, while Arqana has made some inroads with its online platform. The world is getting smaller and given the large volume of horses that are changing hands these days, online sales are only going to go one way. Goffs can make a belated mark in this sphere. 

Advancement Of AI In Horse Racing – One Of The Greatest Certainties

Whether we like it or not, a tidal wave of change is coming to the horse racing industry as Artificial Technologies (AI) continue to advance. AI has the potential to revolutionise everything from breeding and training racehorses to betting and even racecourse operations. 

Through the use of machine learning algorithms, AI systems can analyse vast amounts of data-everything from genetics, historical ratings and biomechanical traits. By identifying patterns and correlations that breeders might overlook, AI can suggest the most promising stallion pairings for breeders. 

Such technologies are already in use with some buyers utilising similar data-driven models at the breeze-up and yearling sale markets in particular. But as the technology advances, so, too, do the possibilities. 

Aidan O'Brien and Charlie Appleby are two trainers who have embraced technology to maintain their competitive edge. In fact, O'Brien's wife Annemarie has gone one step further in setting up her own company, Equimetrics, which is essentially a FitBit or an Apple Watch for a racehorse. 

We live in the information era and knowledge has never been more sought after. The advancement of AI in a multi-million-dollar industry that is decided by marginal gains is one of the greatest certainties of all time. This particular race has only just begun. 

Count On Kia To Entertain Us – Win, Lose or Draw

Kia Joorabchian injected a lot of cash into the market last year and he clearly had a lot of fun doing so, with last-minute bidding and showboating becoming something of a routine of his. But it won't be a lot of fun if, for the many millions spent at the sales, Amo Racing fails to have its purple silks carried by a high-class runner in 2025. 

Only a fool would try to predict how that investment will translate to performances on the track. However, you can be sure that Joorabchian will provide us with lots of entertainment this year–win, lose or draw.

It is no secret that Joorabchian is not afraid of saying what he thinks, nor is he shy on severing ties with jockeys or trainers, which of course is his prerogative. It didn't go unnoticed, either, that on Christmas Day, he put a cryptic message on his Instagram timeline suggesting that Richard Hannon was the latest trainer on the Amo Racing roster to have been given the chop. 

It was during Book 2 of the October Yearling Sale at Tattersalls last year where ace bloodstock agent Alex Elliott, who has been entrusted with overseeing the heightened spend, acknowledged that there will be consequences if Amo does not come up with the goods on the track. He commented, “Some heads could roll next year if these don't work out!” And you get the sense he was only half-joking!

The stakes have become a whole lot higher this year for Amo Racing and, for the sake of the industry, it will be important that one or two of those well-bred yearlings can make a mark on the racecourse. 

Breeders To Spread The Love After Encouraging Trade For Yearlings 

The number of different stallions who had progeny make six figures or more in 2024 was encouraging. There may not have been much of a floor to the market last year but things seemed to be less polarised than in 2023. 

One of the standout results in the ring came at Book 2 of the October Yearling Sale when a son of Territories (Ire) sold for 750,000gns. The fact that the yearling in question was conceived off a covering fee of just £10,000 and that the stallion had just been shipped off to India proved no barrier to the horse making such an eye-watering sum.

That, along with the fact seven different stallions had progeny sell for 500,000gns or more during Book 2, might serve to remind breeders that there are more options out there going forward. 

Look No Further Than Lucky Vega In First-Season Sires' Championship

The first-season sires' championship would appear to be Lucky Vega's to lose. A Group 1-winning two-year-old himself, he did not lack support when joining the Irish National Stud, the fruits of which have been advertised Down Under, where he is up and running with a Listed winner already.

According to Global Stallions, Lucky Vega (Ire) has 100 foals of racing age to represent him in his debut season in Europe. That is a strong number to be working from. 

Not only that, but his yearlings appeared to be more forward and precocious compared to the progeny of some of his first-season sires' championship rivals. It may only be January, but some of the reports back from trainers would back up that appraisal, which means that Lucky Vega can be expected to steal a march in the beginning of the season. 

As we saw with Sergei Prokofiev, who set an unrelenting pace from start to finish in 2024, an early lead can prove vital when it comes to securing first-season sire honours. Of the class of 2025, which also includes St Mark's Basilica (Fr) and Palace Pier (GB), it is Lucky Vega who looks best placed to make an impact this year. 

Ghaiyyath: could be a sleeping giant | Darley

Ghaiyyath Can Come Good

One thing you can be sure about in the bloodstock game is that a stallion is never going as well as the market makes out he is, nor is he going as badly. The reality is that it will be somewhere in the middle. 

Take Time Test (GB) for example. Breeding rights in the young stallion sold for six figures in 2022 following his promising start with his first crop of runners. His fee almost doubled to £15,000 in 2022 and 2023 and, while he remained a perfectly good sire capable of producing nice horses with good ratings, he never managed to catch up with those lofty expectations and he now stands in Turkey.

More recently, people appeared to crown Earthlight (Ire) as the champion first-season sire long before any of his runners hit the track. His first crop of yearlings were said to be that nice and many of the top pinhookers went out and paid top dollar for his foals in 2023. 

He ended up having a perfectly respectable start with his first runners, including a filly, Daylight (Fr), who mixed it at the highest level in France, yet last year's yearlings and foals sold for a fraction of what they would have cost 12 months previously. 

The point being, it can be difficult not to get caught up in the reactionary nature of the market at times, but the good breeders are the ones that are more than capable of thinking for themselves. 

Not one person would have predicted that Ghaiyyath (Ire) would rival Sergei Prokofiev when it came to producing two-year-old winners. In fact, six individual winners from 30 runners–including a Group performer in Stanhope Gardens (Ire)–might well have exceeded expectations from Ghaiyyath's first crop of runners. Yet, his yearlings were affordable in 2024, while demand for his foals definitely upsurge as the sale season continued. 

I for one expect him to take things to a new level in 2025 and for those who retained the faith in the one-time world-class older performer to be well-rewarded for their loyalty.

Keane To Get The Big Rides His Talent Commands

Ireland's six-time champion jockey Colin Keane proved yet again that he can shine on the world's biggest stage when delivering Magnum Force (Ire) (Mehmas {Ire}) with a perfectly-timed rattle to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint for his boss Ger Lyons at Del Mar last November.

Yet, Keane remains criminally underused by outside trainers, especially when it comes to the big races in Britain and Ireland.  

It will have come as a shock to many at the time to learn that it took Keane until 2023 to break his duck at Royal Ascot, where he delivered the Jessica Harrington-trained Villanova Queen (Ire) (Mastercraftsman {Ire}) from last to first to land the Kensington Palace. 

Keane's second and only other winner at the royal meeting came aboard his father Gerry's Crystal Black (Ire) (Teofilo {Ire}) in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes last year. There's something not right about that. 

It's not just the British trainers who have been ignoring Keane on the big stage in Britain, either. Take Willie Mullins, for example. When it comes to running his horses across the water, he has preferred to utilise the services of Ryan Moore, William Buick and Frankie Dettori. 

That's fair enough, as those jockeys are also top of the pops, but Jason Watson and Andrea Atzeni have been provided with a similar number of opportunities to Keane–who has ridden just two winners from seven rides for Mullins–in Britain. 

Perhaps this will be the year that Keane is recognised as one of the best practitioners of his craft. David Menuisier has already seen the light. When the ride aboard his stable star Tamfana (Ger) (Soldier Hollow {GB}) in the Sun Chariot became available, the trainer didn't hesitate in calling on Keane, who duly delivered. More people can come to their senses this year.

Ollie Sangster | Tattersalls

Ollie Sangster To Train A Group 1 Winner

Ollie Sangster has come desperately close to training a breakthrough Group 1 winner for the previous two seasons. But perhaps this could be the year where the impressive young trainer can make his mark at the highest level. 

After Shuwari (Ire) (New Bay {GB}) went down fighting in second to Ylang Ylang (GB) (Frankel {GB}) in the 2023 Fillies' Mile at Newmarket, Simmering (GB) (Too Darn Hot {GB}) found only Lake Victoria (Ire) (Frankel {GB}) too strong in last season's Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh. 

Sangster has been consistently knocking on that Group 1 door. It's only a matter of time before it opens.

Colts To Play Second Fiddle To The Fillies At Ballydoyle 

A quick scan through the ante-post markets for the Classics and it shows how top-heavy Ballydoyle is in the fillies' department compared to the colts this year. 

Whether you went along with the hype machine or not, City Of Troy confirmed himself the outstanding colt of his generation in 2024. There does not appear to be a colt even close to his calibre to get excited about this season. 

The same cannot be said of the fillies' division. Fairy Godmother (Ire) (Night Of Thunder {Ire}), who has not been seen since her brilliant performance in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Lake Victoria (Ire) (Frankel {GB}), Giselle (Ire) (Frankel {GB}) and Minnie Hauk (Ire) (Frankel {GB}) are just a handful of genuinely exciting Aidan O'Brien-trained fillies to look forward to this year. There does not appear to be the same star quality within the colts' barn.

 

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