Value Sires–The Big Guns: The Breeders Speak

[Wandering Eyes]

Peter Bradley, Bradley Thoroughbreds

Gold: MCKINZIE

Street Sense–Runway Model, by Petionville

Gainesway Farm, $75,000

Even though his stud fee more than doubled, McKinzie may be the best bang for the buck at $75,000 this season. A Grade I winner at two, three and four, he completed his racing career at five with a Grade II win. His precocity, soundness and class are all evident in his first crop to race.

Narrowly missing out on the Champion First-Crop Sire title, he has already produced four Grade I performers including Grade I winners Chancer McPatrick and Scottish Lassie. His yearling average topped $150,000 off a $30,000 stud fee and is certain to improve with the success of his first crop to race.

Silver: LIFE IS GOOD

Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor

WinStar Farm, $75,000

Life Is Good was one of the best racehorses of his generation, despite having to compete in the shadow of Flightline. This horse is an A+ physical and is stamping his foals with balance and quality.

With a weanling average of $325,625 and a median of $325,000 in 2024, Life Is Good offers plenty of value at a $75,000 stud fee. He bred 378 high-quality mares across his first two books, giving him every opportunity to succeed at stud. Two years from now, $75,000 could look very inexpensive.

Bronze: CANDY RIDE (ARG)

Ride the Rails–Candy Girl (Arg), by Candy Stripes

Lane's End Farm, $75,000

Candy Ride provides great value for the breeders whose focus is to produce top quality race horses at a reasonable fee. He is as underrated as they come and no other stallion at this price point can boast a resume with 19 Grade I winners and as a sire of sires, has a list that already includes Gun Runner, Twirling Candy and newly crowned Champion First-Crop Sire, Vekoma.

Candy Ride | Lane's End

Tanya Gunther

In the over $50,000 segment of the stallion market, particularly at the very top end of the market, the risk from a breeder perspective starts to become readily palpable if not capable of inducing periodic heart palpitations. Progeny racetrack and sales ring success ideally must both be present, the risk reward balance not too precarious, momentum sustainable, and the chance of producing a top-level horse relatively decent. After vacillating significantly, and adding age and versatility as further considerations, I arrived at the following choices.

Gold: NOT THIS TIME

Giant's Causeway–Miss Macy Sue, by Trippi

Taylor Made, $175,000

Arriving at Gold for Not This Time took less time from analysis to podium than the bronze and silver picks.  Ranked #13 on the 2024 general sires list (based on worldwide earnings), Not This Time produced 17 stakes winners (2nd highest after Into Mischief) at a rate of 7.4% stakes winners/starters and including two Grade I stakes winners in the mix. Not This Time has been a consistent producer of stakes horses at a relatively high percentage of starters throughout his career to date and is improving his mares. He also had one heckuva sales season in 2024 with his $45,000 stud fee sired crop, achieving a yearling sales median of $250,000 and siring four seven-figure yearlings. Not This Time has also managed to stay on the top ten general sires radar over the prior couple of years when he was relying on crops sired at fees of $15,000 or less, including a crop that dipped below 100 in terms of mares bred. The versatility of his runners is another nod in his favor–dirt, turf, short, long, boy, girl, Not This Time progeny can seemingly do it all. Three of his sons (Cogburn, Epicenter and Up To The Mark) have already joined the stallion ranks as well, which could further augment his CV. While Not This Time's 2025 fee of $175,000 is only slightly less eye-watering than my Silver selection, his career path appears to be on a clear upward trajectory. He has surpassed expectations and overcome the typical hurdles that can trip up many a young stallion and, while he still has something to prove, his best bred crops are still to come.

Silver: GUN RUNNER

Candy Ride (Arg)–Quiet Giant, by Giant's Causeway

Three Chimneys, $250,000

Deep breath, yes I am picking Gun Runner for silver. This is where the heart palpitations come into play! While his current fee of $250,000 does represent a reduction from the lofty height of $300,000 in 2023, a quarter of a million dollar stud fee would not be for the faint of heart nor for any breeder not supremely confident in their mare selection and with cash flow to spare. To make my case, Gun Runner is one of those few stallions who has truly hit the ground running so to speak and gone from strength to strength ever since. During his racing career, he won multiple Grade I races with career earnings of nearly $16 million.  In his stallion career, Gun Runner has achieved #1 ranked first season sire (2021), #1 ranked second season sire (2022), and #1 ranked third season sire (2023) when he simultaneously broke into the top ten on the general sires list. He also achieved the #1 position in terms of yearling sale prices for his first, second and third crop sale seasons. In 2024, Gun Runner was #2 ranked general sire behind only Into Mischief and I would hazard a guess that Gun Runner will be a leading contender to take up the mantle when Into Mischief gives up his record-breaking streak at the top. Incredibly, Gun Runner has achieved all of this since entering stud duties in 2018 and is only 12 years old. In 2024, he produced 16 stakes horses (at a 6.3% clip), four Grade I stakes winners (including Breeders' Cup Classic winner and Eclipse Award finalist Sierra Leone as well as Ballerina winner and Eclipse Award finalist Society), and his 2024 average earnings per starter was $87,868. With six new stallions at stud in Kentucky already, Gun Runner is also poised to become a sire of sires when first runners from these stallions come of racing age over the next few years. Gun Runner's popularity at the sales has also continued–2024 sales median for his yearlings was $435,000. While it is impossible to have complete confidence that any mating will result in a top-level horse, Gun Runner's consistent top notch performance across all key metrics could instill a cautious degree of optimism.

Constitution | Sarah Andrew

Bronze: CONSTITUTION

Tapit–Baffled, by Distorted Humor

WinStar, $110,000

Constitution gets the nod for bronze. A top five-ranked sire in 2024, Constitution has remained at the $110,000 fee level since 2023 (up from $85,000 in 2022/2021). While he did not sire a Grade I stakes winner in 2023 or 2024 (probably the main reason his fee remains at the current level), Constitution had, respectively, 2 and 3 Grade I stakes horses beside his name in those years. Courtesy of his son, Tiz The Law, achieving the #3 rank on the 2024 first season sire list (beaten only a whisker or two for the top spot), Constitution also has the chance to blossom into a sire of sires. He also brings progeny versatility of surface and an ability to produce a Derby/Classic contender to the table. Already popular in the sales arena as reflected by a 2024 yearling sales median of $300,000, further upside potential could be in store if he can manage to convert his stakes horses into Grade I stakes winners.

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