Journalists Wandering Eyes Posted 3 hours ago Journalists Share Posted 3 hours ago Later this week, breeding sheds across the Lexington region will open their doors to mares, but in the lead-up to the start of the 2025 mating season, there is an underlying feeling of unease in the Bluegrass. Several farms have already–and quite publicly–announced discounts off their initially posted stud fees, while others are either fighting hard to attract mares, or shopping private deals or fee reductions. The fear among many in town is that in 2025, the industry has reached some sort of tipping point–either due to the economy, a mare shortage, inflation, stud fees, or too many horses being exported abroad–that is leaving stallions dangerously exposed. But if the reasons attributed to the current situation are somewhat murky, most of the people interviewed for this story agreed on one thing: this is the hardest year farms have ever had in filling their stallion books. “I have heard the same things being said,” said Airdrie's Bret Jones. “Certainly, to me it's the hardest it's ever been for solid stallions.” Over at Spendthrift, General Manager Ned Toffey said they're seeing the same. In mid-January, the farm announced reduced fees for six of its stallions, citing breeders' rising production costs. “I would say that, yes, this is a tougher year than we've had,” he said. “Bottom line, I think everybody's bookings are down to some degree or another.” While most first-year stallions and the top echelon are faring well, many established stallions proven to get you a good runner–with a respectable number of black-type horses to named foals, for example–are finding the going a little bit tougher. Hard Spun has sired 15 Grade I winners, has four stallion sons in Kentucky, and has two three-year-olds on the Derby trail. His top yearling in 2024 realized $500,000. Despite that success, his fee was cut from $35,000 to $25,000 this year. “The fact that we reduced his fee by a third and given that he's got two colts right now at this stage with Derby aspirations, that's certainly something historically that has moved the needle for him,” said Darley Sales Manager Darren Fox. “And I do feel like if one of those wins a major Derby prep, that will spur him on. He's got 95 mares on his book right now. He bred 140 last year at $10,000 more. So he's probably trending 20% behind the same point last year, with a $10,000 fee reduction. He's getting a little older, sure. Does that explain the drop-off from year to year? I don't think so.” Hard Spun | Darley photo “This is definitely the first year that I've felt like there are great deals out there, and I don't know of any mares for them,” said Carrie Brogden. “It's a gut-wrenching industry. It's not for the faint of heart. I'm just getting the feeling that people are not expanding their mare population. I just got another message: `Hey Carrie, we decided we're getting out of Thoroughbreds. We're not going to breed. We need to sell these mares.' I'm getting more of that than people saying, `I want to breed the mares.'” What the Numbers Say Whatever it may feel like to breeders, there haven't been any huge shifts in the number of available mares, nor in the number of exported mares. In fact, the numbers are fairly stable. Some popular myths: 1) There are far fewer mares than just a few years ago. This is not true. In Kentucky, in 2022, 16,845 mares were bred to 212 stallions for an average book size of 79.5. In 2023, 17,058 mares were bred to 212 stallions for an average book of 80.5. And in 2024, 16,663 mares were bred to 196 stallions for an average book of 85. Over the past 20 years, there have been years where fewer mares were spread among far more stallions. In 2011 in Kentucky, for example, 15,636 mares were bred to 268 stallions, for an average book size of 58.3. The high-water mark over the past 20 years was the 21,594 mares bred in Kentucky in 2007. But while the mare population has fallen by 23 percent since that time, the number of Kentucky stallions has dropped almost in half–by 47%, from 368 stallions in 2007 to 196 last year. 2) More mares are being exported abroad. In fact, fewer mares are being exported now than they were in 2019, before the pandemic. In 2019, 915 mares of breeding age were exported, compared to 623 of breeding age in 2024, according to facts provided by The Jockey Club. 3) Mares are increasingly going to first-year stallions. This is false. The Jockey Club keeps track of how many first- to fifth-plus year stallions get mares. In 2005, 16.42% of the mares went to first-year stallions. In 2024, that number was 16.33%. And while it has ranged as high as 20 percent in 2023, it has remained fairly consistent for the past 20 years. (See table below). These numbers do drop off for second-through- fourth-year stallions, i.e., stallions without runners, but it's not as dramatic as you might think. Last year, while 16.33% of the mares went to a first-year stallion, 14.52% were bred to second-year stallions. This seems to vary slightly from year to year, depending upon the strength of each year's crop of stallions. Fifth-year-and-up stallions–established stallions–get a pretty fairly consistent 50% of the market share. While it's too early to say exactly what is going on in 2025 until the breeding statistics are published later this year, it would appear that a physical shortage of mares or a new obsession with first-crop stallions does not explain this year's difficulties. PERCENTAGE OF MARES BRED TO STALLIONS BY YEAR OF SERVICE Year Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5+ 2005 16.42 13.45 9.98 9.42 50.73 2006 14.01 14.68 12.11 8.73 50.47 2007 13.31 12.58 13.03 11.42 49.66 2008 15.03 12.2 10.65 11.36 50.76 2009 13.34 12.84 10.16 9.68 53.98 2010 11.22 12.37 10.99 10.84 54.58 2011 12.24 9.84 10.98 10.88 56.06 2012 15.27 10.13 9.12 10.55 54.93 2013 13.93 14.57 9.29 8.42 53.79 2014 15.67 12.14 12.47 9.22 50.5 2015 14.45 14.97 10.81 11.66 48.11 2016 17 12.42 12.25 10.88 47.44 2017 14.98 13.94 10.72 10.67 49.7 2018 16.58 13.3 12.24 9.76 48.12 2019 17.82 12.49 10.38 10.86 48.45 2020 13.11 14.93 11.37 10.81 49.78 2021 19.19 10.4 11.2 10.64 48.58 2022 15.03 15.66 8.82 11.31 49.18 2023 20 10.84 12.3 7.96 48.9 2024 16.33 14.52 8.02 11.77 49.35 Source: The Jockey Club Fact Book Some Trends are Clear 1) Book size continues to grow. According to The Jockey Club Fact Book: In 2015, the average Kentucky stallion's book was 77.6. In 2024, it was 85. 2) The number and percentage of mares being bred to `big-book' stallions continues to grow. Ten years ago, in 2015, 2.44 percent of the mares were bred to stallions covering 201 mares or more. In 2018, it was 3.65%. In 2023, the last year on record, it was 11.06%. Among mares being bred, over 20 percent were bred to stallions covering 151 to 200 mares in 2023. In 2015, it was 11%. 3) The foal crop continues to decline. Ten years ago, it was 21,528. The estimated crop for 2023 is 17,200, marking eight straight years of declines. The Disappearance of Breed-to-Race Outfits Unable to fill books in Kentucky, Creative Cause is now standing in Texas | Equi-Sport photo Almost everyone approached on the subject agreed that the growing commercialization of the product, away from the breed-to-race model, has led to where we are today. “When I first got out of college and got back to the farm, we stood a horse named Slew City Slew,” said Jones. “And every year there was one certainty: that Slew City Slew would get a good book of mares from people who wanted to breed to race–people who wanted a good, sound horse that could earn money at the racetrack, pay their way, and give them a lot of fun along that way. And that breed-to-race breeder simply does not exist any more at that level. I think that has been one of the great tragedies in breeding of the last 10, 15 years. People are so risk-averse that they stick to the safety of those first-year stallions, which we all know will not have a high batting average in terms of who succeeds, with just a total blind eye to the stallions that have actually proven that they can get you a good percentage of stakes runners. I don't think that's any secret in the industry, but it's been amazing how quickly it has happened. In the grand scheme of things, 10 years is not a long period of time, but that's a dramatic departure over that time.” From their own farm, Jones cited the loss of a stallion like Creative Cause. “Creative Cause was a horse that was showing that he could get a good Saturday afternoon horse–horses that could pay their own way. And he's standing in Texas now because there was simply no market for him in Kentucky. People are concerned in the economic times that we're living in, and so they run to the shelter of first-year stallions or the uber-proven if you're playing at the higher end of the market.” Toffey said he agreed. “It's a continuing trend that the breed-to-race part of the market is going away,” he said. “There are fewer and fewer people that are just interested in a good, useful sire. It's breed for the market, and they feel like it's got to be something that is going to get them a really good return. And so then a horse like Goldencents, Jimmy Creed, horses that we have that stand for not a lot of money… Goldencents just got a Kentucky Derby winner. He's a good horse for just getting runners. He's a wonderful horse for starting out a young mare. But the market for those kinds of stallions just continues to dry up.” The General Economy, and the Ongoing Effects of Covid “The underlying contributor to breeding historically has been what the general health of the industry is–what the previous year's yearling sales were, and also what the general state of the U.S economy is,” said Chauncey Morris, the Executive Director of the Kentucky Thoroughbred Association and Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders. “And on the bloodstock sales, there are definitely motivators for wanting to either breed at the same rate or more when both Saratoga and Keeneland September posted phenomenal sales, record-breaking sales, sales that not only were good at the top end, but where demand for the horses continued on to the last sessions to where the clearance rate was even in the single digits, which is unbelievable and enviable.” Despite that, he said, “there's something that combines with those economic conditions in that there's a general negative feeling about the state of the industry. I mean, I would be a fool if I said that that wasn't the case. And, there is also uncertainty about the U.S. economy. The underlying economy is positive, but the Federal Reserve did not raise its interest rates because inflation is still an issue. I think that oftentimes in the Thoroughbred industry, we feel that we're in a bubble. I don't feel that's the case now.” Ned Toffey | Spendthrift But many aspects of the industry are healthy, he stressed, including Kentucky purses, and new tracks being built in Maryland and New York. “There is underlying strength in the Thoroughbred racing landscape, and not only in Kentucky,” he said. “When you have what has always been the most important racing product–New York–which is the driver of the American economy, when you have hundreds of millions of dollars being invested by the New York State government into Belmont, that is a real strength, and you can't say otherwise. But you couple it with some very visceral feeling of uncertainty in some prime historical markets of importance to racing, places like California and Florida, and I think that's probably why people are feeling a little bit negative.” Many of these economic uncertainties were ushered in by Covid, and have never left. “Everything went up 20% across the board during Covid and never came back down,” said Fox. Toffey agrees. “Coming out of COVID, you saw everything getting much more expensive, right down to some of the minutiae involved with running a farm, buying supplies. But whether it's that or feed or the hay or labor or the ability to get labor, all those things are getting more expensive. It's getting more challenging to get labor. The costs have gone up dramatically.” For people who plan on keeping their Thoroughbred for a short time before selling it, rising costs puts immense pressure on the need to succeed at the sales. “I think that people have continued to refine their filters over the years,” he said. “And so I think that causes people to be that much more selective with what they are willing to breed to.” Discounts, and the Waiting Game While some farms, like Spendthrift and Taylor Made, announced new discounts, others are offering them privately. Everyone interviewed for this story said they felt that because they knew that books on mid-tier sires weren't full, breeders were taking their time in making their selections, hoping for some last-minute information or on-track performance that might change their perspective. “I think people just are reacting to their reality,” said Fox, “which is `it's difficult and the market is selective.' So they're being selective with the stallions they choose and recognize that some of these proven stallions are probably going to have room all year long and there's no rush. If they wait 'til April when the mare foals, they're six months wiser. Maybe that points you to a different horse, or maybe you catch a bubble horse on the rise. So I do think some people are not rushing in to book everything straight away to try to make last-minute decisions that are hopefully better decisions.” Toffey said he agreed. “I am optimistic that there's going to be kind of a little bit later surge in bookings this year,” he said. “Bookings are down, but I believe people are just playing the waiting game. And you've seen that farms–just as we've announced–are willing to come in their direction if they'll hold out. So I think there's some of that going on. But I do think that the big question is, `what percentage is that going to account for?'” Said SF Bloodstock's Tom Ryan, “With a relatively open-door policy, people feel they can afford to wait longer before committing to second and third-season stallions or horses in bubble years. They hold off for positive indicators, knowing there's still capacity in their book. I believe this lack of urgency contributes to the situation.” And while farms try to lock down those breeders with deals, too-deep discounts could come at a price to farms and breeders alike, warns Jones. “I think there are some that are playing the waiting game because they recognize the vulnerability amongst some of the stallion farms,” said Jones. “And another thing that worries me for breeders, sometimes there's a race to the bottom where we start giving away product to at no cost, which on the surface certainly appears to be in the breeder's best interest…except that everybody knows which of those stallions are being bred for free. And when you go to market with that resulting yearling, there is a stigma attached to that stallion. So while it may save you money up-front, and I underscore the importance of that, ultimately the real payoff is in the auction ring or on the racetrack. And when you're telling everyone that your stallion is worth $0, that has also factored into a reputation for your stallion amongst buyers. And so the return in their auction ring is so often not what those breeders were expecting when they felt like they were getting a supposedly great deal.” The Double-Edged Sword of the Commercial Marketplace But while some established breeding operations are still playing the long game, “most people are trying to hold their Thoroughbred a year or less,” said Mark Taylor. “Everybody has very short-term focus.” Mark Taylor | Fasig-Tipton photo The irony of it, said Taylor, is that if you're breeding to sell, a first-year stallion has less of a financial risk. If you're breeding to race, “that's the worst gamble. Those are the most high-risk horses because as we know, if there are 10 that come off the track and come to Kentucky every year, there's going to be maybe one, maybe two, very rarely three that make it. So there are definitely going to be seven of them that are going to be failures. You look at a horse like Upstart right now. Upstart's a very good stallion. He did a lot with not big books and not uber-quality mares. And you look at even last year–I think he had three or four two-year-old stakes winners and his good mares haven't even hit yet. I haven't called Airdrie, but I bet that he doesn't have a fraction of the mares that one of these horses that's just off the track has. But there's a 70% chance, at least, that they will never be as good as Upstart is.” But if you're holding a horse less than a year, it doesn't matter if he's good or not. And therein lies the basic irony of the situation in which the industry finds itself. Are we breeding racehorses with less of a chance to be good because it's economically advantageous to do so? “This stuff doesn't just happen in a vacuum,” said Toffey. “People make breeding decisions based on other people's buying decisions. And so people understand that it's a safer play to buy a first-year horse. If you breed in year two and the stallion didn't jump up immediately and set the world on fire, you are sitting there with a yearling that you can't sell. There aren't people to buy them.” Ironically, said Jones, bad decisions are often made when breeders are forced to make them too early in order to secure their nomination to the hot stallion. He said that farms do breeders a disservice by trying to get them to commit to a stallion in the summer. “Certainly one of our jobs is to fill our books, but we also have to recognize that the game doesn't work if our breeders can't be successful,” he said. “One of the things I really don't think we're doing right is forcing breeders to make their mating decisions before the fall yearling sales. There is such a panic out there of getting shut out on the hot stallion of the summer that breeders are having to make financial commitments before they really even know what their financial situation is. I know it's hard to put that genie back in the bottle, but if breeders can make more informed decisions, they are more likely to be successful, more likely to purchase and breed more mares, and ultimately that will benefit the stallion farms and the industry at large.” And, with rounds of X-rays and correctional surgeries, turning that mating to the trendy stallion into a marketable yearling has never been harder, nor more expensive, said Taylor, and that is reducing the number of mares people are willing to carry. “If you turn back the clock to when my dad was general manager of Gainesway in the '70s and '80s, you didn't have a repository at the sales,” said Taylor. “Nobody was X-raying these yearlings pre-sale.” Now, he said, screening for `all these little imperfections' starts with X-rays in February of their spring year. “What that triggers is all these surgeries–I mean thousands and thousands of surgeries–cleaning up these things that we never cleaned up before. I can't even fathom how much money that is, but it's going out of the breeders' pockets and it's fixing something that in some cases–I would argue in many cases–did not need to be fixed for the product to do its job.” The risk of spending that money and missing the mark has breeders afraid to take a chance with the one thing they can control–their choice of stallion. “It's so hard to hit that bullseye across at any of the sales,” said Fox. “You've got to have the sire, the physical, the X-ray, the scope, the walk, and your sire has to have been hot in the preceding 60 days before the sales. The expenses are going up and I feel like the bullseye is getting smaller. This has created a dynamic where breeders are being extra careful about the stallions they're choosing. Obviously, they go to first-year horses because of their commercial success. But after year one, it's like there's the mass exodus to the next batch of freshmen sires, or the expensive, proven, hot stallions. And everyone else in the middle is just, I don't know, part of the crowd.” Is There a Fix? For Toffey, it comes down to controlling the pricing you can control–stud fees. “I don't think there's any quick fix,” he said. “But if we can make it to where it's profitable for breeders, that means controlling expenses. Unfortunately, it's hard to control the economy, whether it's hay or hardware. But the other big part of that is stud fees. And so that's why I think you've seen every major stud farm in town, whether they've advertised it or not, making significant concessions.” Taylor said he thinks that there's room to control breeders' expenses by recreating a segment of the marketplace selling naturally raised yearlings purchased from people you trust–no X-rays, no surgeries–with the seller's word that what he's representing is true. “You would be trying to target buyers who just wanted a solid racehorse, and maybe they don't have a huge budget, but you'd probably have some people walking around there looking for a nice horse, and they'd probably find some nice horses in there. That section of breeders would say, `we're not going to do all these screening X-rays, and we're going to save a couple grand.' We're not going to do any surgeries because we don't know what's in there and unless it blows up or it's swollen, we're not doing it. Could you turn back time? There are certain people that I know who just raise a good horse, and I would go buy a horse off of them like that.” Jones points out that there are not only fewer mares–there are fewer mare owners, and nobody is out there recruiting new ones. In 2004, according to Equibase, there were 39,043 individual ownership entities who raced a horse. By 2024, that number had fallen by close to half, to 21,123. TOBA currently lists just over 1,500 members. In 2004, that number was around 2,500. “This is a different conversation, but I think it's as important a conversation as there is,” said Jones. “We have no national marketing as a major league sport. We're not out there promoting to potential racehorse owners–and specifically for this conversation, potential mare owners–about how great this game is. We've got to change that. The only way that you increase the number of mares being bred right now is to get people more excited about horse racing. “This is the greatest game in the world, and we continue to keep that a secret. And it's a political campaign that we need right now to inspire people. The Derby has never been bigger and horse racing has never been safer. Those two statements are facts and they are should be inspiring. That's not to turn a blind eye to all the issues we have. We all know the issues. But until our industry makes the investment of marketing our sport at the national level in a significant way, we can't be surprised when we feel the momentum is turning against us.” The post `The Hardest It’s Ever Been’: What’s Behind the Slow Start to the Breeding Season? appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions. View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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