Rising Star Watch 2019: Improbable

[Wandering Eyes]

Members of the TDN staff reveal what TDN Rising Star they’re most excited to see race in 2019.

This is a fairly obvious choice, but what I liked most about Improbable (City Zip) was his clear development between each start of his three-race juvenile campaign. Though he got the job done at 2-5 first out at Santa Anita Sept. 29, I felt that he ran the second best race, laying off a sizzling speed duel and just getting up by a neck over one of the tiring pace actors. Shipped to Churchill for the Street Sense S. Nov. 2, he overcame some early traffic and left no doubt as to his potential when scampering away in the stretch to a 7 1/4-length romp. Given his initial two-turn test in the Dec. 8 GI Los Alamitos Futurity, the chestnut appeared to be struggling with the track pretty significantly, tugging at the bit and trying to bear out on the first turn. Once he found his footing, however, he strode clear powerfully, leaving his fellow ‘Rising Star’ stablemate Mucho Gusto (Mucho Macho Man) in the dust to the tune of a five-length score. The Beyers for his three races reflect his progression on the eye test, as he graduated from an 85 in his debut to a 93 in the Street Sense to a 96 at Los Alamitos.

With his copper color, white blaze and trademark Bob Baffert blue shadow roll, Improbable aesthetically evokes memories of Justify taking the racing world by storm over the winter and spring. I see similarities in their strides as well, with each colt looking like they’re jumping twice to their opponents’ once when they lengthen their gait. The main difference between the two, at least so far, is running style. Justify came right out of the box running, rattling off splits of :21.80 and :44.37 on debut, and he was never worse than second at any call in any of his six career races. Improbable, though far from slow early, does his best running from behind the speed and figures to be able to use that tractability to his advantage as we move into Derby season.

—Joe Bianca, Associate Editor

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