Winter Watch: Could Opera Ballo Be The One?

[Wandering Eyes]

“An eagle-eyed former Timeform employee, Adam guarantees that if the next Notable Speech is out there, about to make his debut on the all-weather this winter before marching on to Classic glory, then he will spot him. No pressure, then.”

Those were the words of TDN colleague Emma Berry when she penned her final Seven Days column of 2024, teeing up what was to come in the column introduced in its stead for the winter.

Now, in this 12th edition of Winter Watch, we've reached the stage where it's time to put some cards on the table and deliver on the task which was set back in November: that of spotting the next Notable Speech (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}), if such a thing existed.

Step forward Opera Ballo (Ire), the son of Ghaiyyath (Ire) who must now be considered the closest thing we've seen to a Classic contender this winter. That would certainly be the view of this scribe–one shared by bookmakers if ante-post odds of 8-1 for the 2,000 Guineas are anything to go by–following back-to-back wins at Kempton, by a cumulative margin of over 12 lengths.

If nailing my colours to the Opera Ballo mast really does bring any pressure with it, then thanks should go to Charlie Appleby and the Godolphin team for spelling out so clearly that this is the colt considered the heir apparent to last year's Guineas winner.

Perhaps we're guilty of putting two and two together and getting five, but it didn't escape anybody's attention that the one-mile maiden chosen for Opera Ballo's debut last month was the same race in which Notable Speech had kicked off his career 12 months earlier. The result was a bloodless victory by eight and a half lengths, not to mention 'TDN Rising Star' status.

Next up for Opera Ballo was Wednesday's “European Road To The Kentucky Derby” Conditions Stakes over the same course and distance, a race Appleby has now four times in five years, after this colt again emulated Notable Speech with a smooth defeat of some promising rivals as the 11-10 favourite.

A shade keener than ideal through the early stages, Opera Ballo eventually settled on the heels of stable-mate Olympus Point (Ire) (Earthlight {Ire}) in second, before moving up to challenge the leader early in the straight. Towering over the tiring Olympus Point approaching the two-furlong pole, the imposing Opera Ballo then dipped under 11 seconds for the penultimate furlong–just as he had on his debut–as he surged clear for a four-length win.

 

Opera Ballo – all class in the “European Road To The @KentuckyDerby” Conditions Stakes for team @godolphin

Two runs
Two wins
Smart prospect pic.twitter.com/cQi0kw86xX

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) February 26, 2025

 

They finished in a bit of a bunch behind the winner, but the runner-up, Hott Shott (GB) (Too Darn Hot {GB}), came into the race with a BHA mark of 94, while Saddadd (Ire) (Pinatubo {Ire}) and Quai De Bethune (Fr) (Persian King {Ire}) each arrived at Kempton having recorded impressive wins when last in action. They had to settle for third and fourth, respectively.

Certainly, there's some substance to the form, as you'd hope for a colt who now has only The Lion In Winter (Ire) (Sea The Stars {Ire}) categorically ahead of him in those ante-post lists for the Guineas. The majority of bookmakers now have him the same price as stable-mate Shadow Of Light (GB) (Lope De Vega {Ire}), a dual Group 1 winner as a two-year-old when landing the Middle Park Stakes and Dewhurst Stakes.

That suggests William Buick might have a decision to make come the first Saturday in May, especially if Opera Ballo can further enhance his reputation with another showstopping performance between now and then.

In 2024, Notable Speech completed his hat-trick in a conditions race at Kempton on Easter Monday, but this year that fixture falls just 12 days before the 2,000 Guineas. A provisional schedule for that card on the Kempton website also shows no such conditions race being held this year.

Perhaps the team at Kempton have made the decision to bring it forward in the calendar, so as not to deter any potential Classic contenders from taking up the option. Either way, Appleby will no doubt be keen to give Opera Ballo more experience, ahead of the big spring races which the son of Ghaiyyath looks like he belongs in.

No pressure, though.

A Taste of the Turf

Some might consider this outside of our remit, but we're still in February and this is Winter Watch, so there's no harm in sneaking in a bit of turf racing from Sunday's card at Cagnes-Sur-Mer. One of the feature events there was the Listed Prix de la Californie, another race which had a top-class winner last year in the shape of the subsequent G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest hero Lazzat (Fr) (Territories {Ire}).

Only time will tell whether Silius (Ire) can scale similar heights in 2025 after his authoritative victory on Sunday, but he's certainly bred to go to the top as a son of Dubawi (Ire) and the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac and G1 Prix Saint-Alary heroine Silasol (Ire) (Monsun {Ger}). He's the fourth winner from five runners out of Silasol, with the others including Fasol (GB) (Galileo {Ire}) and Silawi (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}), both of whom were placed at Group 3 level in France.

Silius was kept busy as a two-year-old when he won two of his six starts–as well as finishing fourth in a pair of Listed contests at Deauville–and already this year he's rattled off a hat-trick of victories over the extended seven furlongs at Cagnes-Sur-Mer. The latest of them was achieved by three and a half lengths from Kaadi (Ire) (Soldier's Call {GB}), just needing to be kept up to his work by Maxime Guyon to justify short odds with the minimum of fuss.

Trained by Christophe Ferland, Silius holds an entry in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains and a trial for that Classic looks the obvious next step. At this stage he is one of five entries in the Poulains for his owner-breeder, Wertheimer et Frere, alongside the likes of Pacifiste (Fr) (Saxon Warrior {Jpn}), who created a big impression when making a winning debut on the Deauville polytrack back in November. He is out of the GI American Oaks and GI Del Mar Oaks winner Lady Of Shamrock (Scat Daddy).

 

C Ferland trained SILIUS (IRE) takes the Listed Prix de la Californie at Cagnes-Sur-Mer.

3yo son of @DarleyEurope sire Dubawi (IRE) bred & owned by Wertheimer & Frere. pic.twitter.com/AnklX0eFtY

— ITM (@IREthoroughbred) February 23, 2025

 

One for the Shakira Fans

It was back to our bread and butter on Tuesday when the all-weather action resumed at Cagnes-Sur-Mer, featuring another dominant front-running display from Prix du Jockey Club entrant Waka Waka (Fr) as he made it two wins from three career starts for the Jerome Reynier stable.

In a near carbon copy of his breakthrough success over the same course and distance last month, the son of Dabirsim (Fr) was in front for virtually every yard of the 10-furlong trip, ultimately winning by three lengths eased down, having gained a decisive advantage when kicking clear early in the straight.

The limitations of the placed pair are fairly well exposed at this stage–they came into the race having had a combined 15 starts between them–but Waka Waka did everything that was required of him in putting them to the sword in comprehensive fashion. He'll be well worth his place in better company when the time comes.

The second foal out of the Listed winner Watayouna (Fr) (Siyouni {Fr}), he sports the silks of Michael Motschmann, having been bought by Reynier for €28,000 at the Arqana October Yearling Sale.

 

Prix De Porquerolles @hippocotdazur
Cagnes Sur Mer – Classe 2 – 3 ans – 2000m – 6 Pts – 26 000 €

Waka Waka (m) (Fr) Antonio Orani
(Dabirsim (Fr) – Watayouna (Fr) par Siyouni (Fr) @AgaKhanStuds ))

Jérôme Reynier @EcurieReynier
M.Motschmann… pic.twitter.com/X5XsC5oWS7

— French and International Horse Racing (@Vincenzo0612) February 25, 2025

 

Amo Fillies to the Fore at Dundalk

Spicy Margarita (Ire) (Earthlight {Ire}), who earned a positive mention in this space last week, was ruled out of a quick return to action at Dundalk on Friday after she was found to be coughing, but Adrian Murray and Amo Racing were still responsible for the winner of the race she'd been due to contest in Carolina Jetstream (GB) (Pinatubo {Ire}).

Sent off the 4-5 favourite for what was a conditions event run over an extended 10 furlongs, Carolina Jetstream proved very well suited by the step up in trip as she followed up her maiden victory over a mile at the same track in November. At the line she was two and a quarter lengths clear of her closest pursuer, impressing with how quickly she asserted after moving up to lead entering the final furlong.

Bought for 110,000gns at Book 2 of the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale, Carolina Jetstream holds an Irish Oaks entry and it would seem that she takes more after the dam's side of her pedigree than her sire in terms of trip requirements. She is the second winner from three runners out of the Sea The Stars (Ire) mare Queen Of The Stars (GB), who gained her sole career win over 10 furlongs. Queen Of The Stars, in turn, is out of Queen Of Pentacles (Ire) (Selkirk), a Listed winner over the same trip and a half-sister to the classy stayer Caucus (GB) (Cape Cross {Ire}).

This filly still has plenty to find to achieve the level required to be a genuine Classic contender, but she's certainly going the right way for connections who also won the one-mile fillies' maiden on Friday's card with California Dreamer (GB) (Mehmas {Ire}). She was a 1-6 shot to finally get off the mark and duly obliged by five and a half lengths, matching her peak two-year-old form which included a runner-up finish in the G2 Airlie Stud Stakes at the Curragh.

Incidentally, the victory of Carolina Jetstream also paid a compliment to the form of Giselle (Ire) (Frankel {GB}), who had this filly back in third when they met in a seven-furlong maiden at the Curragh in October. The winner is seemingly held in very high regard by the team at Ballydoyle, while the runner-up, The Palace Girl (Ger) (Areion {Ger}), subsequently sold for 1,550,000gns at the Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

 

Irishinjuredjockeys .com Rated Race @DundalkStadium
Dundalk – 3 ans – 2148m – 4 Pts – 15 499 €

Carolina Jetstream (f) (Gb) W J Lee @wjlee24786
(Pinatubo (Ire) @DarleyEurope – Queen Of The Stars (Gb) par Sea The Stars (Ire))

A Murray
AMO Racing… pic.twitter.com/22paTdOHbJ

— French and International Horse Racing (@Vincenzo0612) February 21, 2025

 

Hey Boo Springs a Surprise

Back on British soil, the crossbar has been taking a good battering from the Amo team in recent days, including at Southwell on Saturday where their Royal Ascot winner, Valiant Force (Malibu Moon), finished third in the Listed Hever Sprint Stakes.

Expensive breeze-up buy Too Sweet (GB) (King Of Change {GB}) went closer still when filling the runner-up spot in the seven-furlong fillies' maiden at Chelmsford on Saturday, a race won by the Jack Channon-trained newcomer Hey Boo (GB) (Iffraaj {GB}). The first two were separated by just three quarters of a length at the line, though 16-1 shot Hey Boo was arguably value for extra, having overcome a sluggish start and a wide draw to win going away.

Jonathan Mitchell's homebred winner is out of the Listed-placed Tricksy Spirit (GB) (Lethal Force {Ire}), who is now a perfect three from three since retiring to the paddocks, with the G3 Dick Poole Fillies' Stakes heroine Juniper Berries (GB) (Expert Eye {GB}) featuring among her two previous winners. Hey Boo was hooded for her debut but showed a likeable attitude and ought to do better still with this experience under her belt.

Similar comments apply to Hugo Palmer's Miami Matrix (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}), the winner of the seven-furlong maiden at Wolverhampton on Monday, at the expense of another Amo runner in Political Power (Ire) (Wooded {Ire}).

Beaten just a length and a half when finishing third on his debut at Newcastle last month, Miami Matrix still looked far from the finished article at Dunstall Park, but he was always going forward despite wandering right in the closing stages, hitting the line powerfully with nearly two lengths to spare over his closest pursuer. He should stay at least a mile on this evidence.

An 80,000gns purchase at the Tattersalls Craven Breeze-up Sale, having initially sold for €48,000 at Book 1 of the Goffs Orby Yearling Sale, Miami Matrix is the second winner from as many runners out of the Listed-placed Duchess Of Danzig (Ger) (Sea The Stars {Ire}). His second dam is the multiple Group 3 scorer and G1 Preis der Diana runner-up Djumama (Ire) (Aussie Rules), whose other notable progeny include the Listed winner and G3 Prix Cleopatre second Samahram (Fr) (Sea The Moon {Ger}).

 

Maiden Fillies' Stakes @ChelmsfordCRC
Chelmsford – Maiden – Femelles – 3 ans et plus – 1408m – 12 Pts

Hey Boo (f) George Bass
(Iffraaj (Gb) @DarleyEurope – Tricksy Spirit (Gb) par Lethal Force (Ire))

J Channon @ChannonRacing
M. J… pic.twitter.com/VfsRozZTEC

— French and International Horse Racing (@Vincenzo0612) February 22, 2025

 

Winners in Waiting

My Kinda Ghaiy (Ire)
Ghaiyyath (Ire)–Mamonta (GB), by Fantastic Light
The one-mile maiden on Saturday's card at Southwell had a promising winner in the Ralph Beckett-trained Run With It (Ire) (Blue Point {Ire}), while My Kinda Ghaiy also shaped with plenty of encouragement as the sole newcomer in the line-up. He was a never-nearer fourth, passing the post two lengths behind the winner, and it's worth watching a replay to see just how much ground he made up in the straight under a hands-and-heels ride. A 75,000gns purchase at Book 1 of the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale, he looks a useful middle-distance performer in the making, a half-brother to the G2 Lancashire Oaks winner and G1 Prix Vermeille and G1 Prix Royal-Oak runner-up Endless Time (Ire) (Sea The Stars {Ire}).

Dancing Teapot (Ire), runner-up at Dundalk (November 22) since publication
Padua (Ire), seventh at Kempton (December 4) since publication
Marhaba Ghaiyyath (Ire), winner at Lingfield (December 3) since publication
Safe Idea (GB), third at Wolverhampton (December 21) since publication
Indian Springs (Ire)
Spanish Voice (GB)
Noble Horizon (GB)
Dixieland Blues (GB)
City Of God (Ire), winner at Southwell (January 17) and runner-up at Wolverhampton (February 18) since publication
War And Love (GB), runner-up at Chelmsford (January 11) and fifth at Newcastle (February 4) since publication
Cupola (GB), seventh at Wolverhampton (February 18) since publication
Lady Lilac (Ire)

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