TDN Derby Top 12: Long-Awaited Spring Thaw on Horizon

[Wandering Eyes]

We've taken the plunge into the deeper end of the prep pool for the GI Kentucky Derby. Five nine-furlong stakes each awarding 100 qualifying points are scheduled over the next two Saturdays, after which this list will expand to the Top 20.

1) CITIZEN BULL (c, Into Mischief–No Joke, by Distorted Humor) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Catherine Donovan; B-Robert Low & Lawana Low (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $675,000 Ylg '23 KEESEP. Lifetime record: MGISW, 5-4-0-1, $1,421,000. Last start: WON Feb. 1 GIII Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

The Bob Baffert-trained juvenile champ will enjoy home-track advantage in the Apr. 5 GI Santa Anita Derby, which at this point is shaping up as a showdown between the Nos. 1 and 2 contenders on this list–a classic speed-versus-stalker confrontation.

As the dominant early-speed horse in his division, this big, strong $675,000 KEESEP colt has a locked-in, determined way of going, and we have yet to see Citizen Bull get knocked off-kilter by in-race pace pressure or minor trip trouble.

After an on-the-pace debut win sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs and a third-place try over seven-eighths in the GI Del Mar Futurity, Citizen Bull wired the GI American Pharoah Stakes and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile in succession.

If you thought (like I initially did) that his Juvenile win wasn't as impressive as it might seem (because he established an unchallenged lead after the favored pacesetter stumbled out of the gate), Citizen Bull delivered a not-so-subtle reminder of his relevance in his first start at age three by uncorking a front-running pummeling in the Feb. 1 GIII Robert B. Lewis Stakes, earning a 98 Beyer Speed Figure despite a bobble at the break and never at any point being roused for full run.

You'll hear quite a bit of “doesn't have to win his final prep” talk about both Citizen Bull and Journalism (Curlin) leading up to the Santa Anita Derby. It's true that qualifying points aren't an issue, and neither camp wants an overextended colt one month before the Kentucky Derby. But both are going to have to deliver some semblance of the real deal, because heading to Louisville without evidence of next-level mojo can also be a big risk.

2) JOURNALISM (c, Curlin–Mopotism, by Uncle Mo. O-Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Elayne Stables 5 LLC and Robert V. LaPenta; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Michael W. McCarthy. Sales history: $825,000 Ylg '23 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-1, $338,880. Last start: WON Mar. 1 GII San Felipe Stakes.

Journalism closed as the 5-1 favorite in last week's Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. This $825,000 FTSAUG colt is coming off a 108-Beyer victory in the GII San Felipe Stakes that was every bit as visually impressive as that lofty speed figure. Both his way of going and pedigree (by Curlin out of an Uncle Mo mare) project he'll benefit from longer-distance races.

Much like in the writeup of Citizen Bull, I needed a sophomore-debut convincer before climbing aboard the Journalism bandwagon. I hadn't been blown away by his season-ending 2-year-old win in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity. Journalism stalked outside, chased a trio while covering up another rival, then came five wide for the long Los Al drive to collar a wilted leader with no one else firing. The Beyer came back a so-so 87.

Different story in the San Felipe. This Michael McCarthy trainee broke running, then conceded the lead to the 2-5 favorite, Barnes (Into Mischief). Umberto Rispoli eased back Journalism to fourth at the fence, then cued him to slice through on the inside a half-mile out. On the far turn, Journalism launched into a relentless, three-deep sweep that had Barnes well within his striking sights at the head of the lane, but Barnes was not giving in.

This colt's long, purposeful stride enabled him to overcome what was still a 2 1/2-length deficit at the eighth pole, and Journalism wrested command a sixteenth out before extending assertively to a 1 3/4-length win.

It's a big gamble as to what to expect, speed-figure wise, in the Santa Anita Derby considering Journalism jumped his Beyer 21 points from age 2 to 3. His overall Beyer progression is 72-82-87-108 over just four starts.

Journalism's limited sophomore experience does raise a recent-history red flag–although it's worth noting that after all the prep races are run, this stat will also apply to No. 1-ranked Citizen Bull as well as the next two contenders on this list: From 2017 through 2024, horses with only two sophomore starts prior to running in the Kentucky Derby are a collective 0-for-49.

3) SOVEREIGNTY (c, Into Mischief–Crowned, by Bernardini). O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-William I. Mott; Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-2-1-0, $388,800. Last start: WON Mar. 1 GII Fountain of Youth Stakes.

The big question about this Bill Mott-trained Godolphin homebred is whether Sovereignty has stamped himself as a stone-cold closer by rallying from last in three of his four career races, or whether he's capable/comfortable enough to take on more of a stalker's role.

His second career race, a Sept. 27 one-turn maiden mile at Aqueduct, in which this son of Into Mischief sat two lengths off the pace in third and bounded home with huge strides to just miss by a neck, displayed an adaptability that would be of benefit in this colt's already talented toolbox, which has produced two subsequent graded stakes wins at 1 1/16 miles.

It's dangerously easy to fall in love with a deep closer for your Derby horse, but not generally profitable. Speed-centric horses who raced either on the front end or just off it crossed the finish wire first (even though two were DQ'd) in every Derby between 2014 and 2021. Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 were off-the-pace winners. In 2024 Mystik Dan (Goldencents) won with an inside stalk.

Saturday's GI Florida Derby is next for Sovereignty. He'll break from the outermost 10 post as the 8-5 morning-line favorite.

Captain Cook | Sarah Andrew

4) CAPTAIN COOK (c, Practical Joke–Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie). 'TDN Rising Star'. O-St. Elias Stable; B-Marylou Whitney Stables, LLC (KY); T-Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. Sales history: $410,000 2yo '24 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-0-0, $188,256. Last start: WON Feb. 1 Withers Stakes.

Congrats if you locked in the 51-1 price on Captain Cook in the Derby Future pool that closed Mar. 16. It was difficult to discern worthwhile overlays among those 40 betting interests, but recency bias contributed to jacking the odds on this Rick Dutrow Jr. trainee. He hadn't raced in six weeks at the time of the bet, his lone stakes win was ungraded, and he's been training in New York all winter, far removed from most of the Derby attention and prep action.

This 'TDN Rising Star' by Practical Joke ($410,000 KEENOV) got bumped and crowded at the break and was hung out five wide on the turn in his Churchill sprint debut Oct. 27 for owner/breeder Marylou Whitney Stables and trainer Norm Casse. The colt was then entered in the Keeneland November Horses of Racing Age Sale, and brought $410,000 from bloodstock agent Steve Young on behalf of St. Elias Stable as the second-most-expensive lot of that sale.

Making his first start for new connections at 1-2 odds off a two-month break, Captain Cook detonated a 9 1/4-length, pace-pressing maiden blowout at Aqueduct over a sloppy seven furlongs Dec. 28.

In the Feb. 1 Withers Stakes, Captain Cook was bet down to 7-5 favoritism and delivered a measured victory despite breaking a touch slowly and giving up three paths of real estate on both turns.

Once set down for the drive, his stretch run was focused and efficient, and it included having to swat back a late challenge from a 33-1 closer who was outrunning those odds. The 2 1/4-length score translated to a 94 Beyer.

Dutrow has been aiming for the Apr. 5 GII Wood Memorial Stakes because he prefers longer spacing between races for Captain Cook, who now has two wins over the Aqueduct surface, including one at the Wood's nine-furlong distance.

5) BARNES (c, Into Mischief–All American Dream, by American Pharoah). O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Jeff Drown and Don Rachel, LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $3,200,000 Ylg '23 FTSAUG). Lifetime record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $249,000. Last start: 2nd Mar. 1 GII San Felipe Stakes.

Barnes will still be looking for his first two-turn victory as he stretches to nine furlongs for his yet-to-be-disclosed final Kentucky Derby prep. But his runner-up try in the Mar. 1 San Felipe Stakes rates as a better performance in terms of experience when compared to some of the graded stakes victories earned by others so far this spring.

In that Santa Anita stakes, this $3.2 million FTSAUG colt by Into Mischief established command at the front, drew away on the far turn after taking internal pace pressure, then held off current Derby future-wager fave Journalism as best he could until the final sixteenth. In the final stages Barnes was tiring, but not quitting.

For perspective, the 105 Beyer that Barnes earned in defeat would be a higher Beyer than any other Kentucky Derby entrant except for one in the past four post-pandemic Derbies. That lone exception was 'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness (City of Light), who, prior to finishing 15th as last year's beaten Derby favorite, had run Beyers of 105 and 110.

Of course, as discussed in Journalism's writeup, it remains to be seen whether that's a speed rating that leaves room for numerical improvement in a final Derby prep.

6) RIVER THAMES (c, Maclean's Music–Proportionality, by Discreet Cat). 'TDN Rising Star'. O-CHC, Inc. and WinStar Farm LLC; B-CTR Stables, LLC (NY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $200,000 Ylg '23 SARAUG. Lifetime record: 3-2-1-0, $164,400. Last start: 2nd, Mar. 1 GII Fountain of Youth Stakes.

River Thames | Ryan Thompson

'TDN Rising Star' River Thames (Maclean's Music) will get a jockey switch from John Velazquez to Irad Ortiz Jr. for the Apr. 5 GI Blue Grass Stakes. Ortiz was aboard at Palm Beach Downs last Friday when this colt worked a bullet five-eighths in 1:00.51 (1/6) for trainer Todd Pletcher.

This New York-bred ($200,000 SARAUG) won his first two career starts at Gulfstream, a maiden sprint and a one-turn-mile allowance, by a combined 11 1/4 lengths. His first try around two turns was against stakes company in the Fountain of Youth, in which River Thames ran a very commendable second, beaten only a neck, by Sovereignty.

Although this colt didn't exactly have a troubled trip in the Fountain of Youth, there was still quite a bit going on in that race.

River Thames pressed the pace inside through the first turn, was edged off the action and switched outside for the backstretch run, then was hustled to re-engage with three furlongs left. Ridden along to pick up the tempo, River Thames seized the lead off the final turn, but once he got clear he momentarily lost focus for several strides in the stretch, which contributed to Sovereignty nailing him in the shadow of the wire.

That's the type of mental lapse you'd rather see on the first Saturday of March than on the first Saturday of May. The guess here is that River Thames will be a tighter fighter for the Blue Grass, a stakes that Pletcher has won four times.

7) RODRIGUEZ (c, Authentic–Cayala, by Cherokee Run). 'TDN Rising Star'. O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Catherine Donovan; B-Kingswood Farm & David Egan (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $485,000 Ylg KEESEP '23. Lifetime record: 4-1-2-1, $122,800. Last start: 3rd Mar. 1 GII San Felipe Stakes.

Rodriguez has tried to press the pace against difficult SoCal company in his last two starts with mixed results. If trainer Bob Baffert finds a final prep for this 'TDN Rising Star' by Authentic that allows him to motor to the front end and run freely, we could be looking at a very dangerous colt for the May 3 Kentucky Derby.

Keep in mind that Rodriguez is a May 20 foal, which means that if he were to advance through the first two legs of the Triple Crown, he won't turn 3 until three days after the GI Preakness Stakes. His late birthdate theoretically puts him behind his sophomore contemporaries, development-wise.

This $485,000 KEESEP colt's second lifetime start, a seven-length, front-end bust-out in a one-mile maiden special weight race at Santa Anita, was polished and professional and earned a 100 Beyer.

In the Lewis Stakes, Rodriguez broke running, chased favored Citizen Bull, then appeared to be falling out of contention with a half-mile to race. But jockey Juan Hernandez was trading a slight loss of mid-race momentum for better positioning outside instead of between horses for the far-turn run, and Rodriguez kicked again, finishing strongly for second behind his far-more-experienced stablemate.

In the San Felipe Stakes, Rodriguez flashed in-hand speed from the gate to pressure Barnes in the early stages, but once again had a rival to his outside forcing him to maintain a quick cadence to avoid losing position between rivals. He shadowed Barnes as best as he could, but looked out of his comfort zone by being relegated to “chase” mode. He ended up third behind Journalism and Barnes.

8) SANDMAN (c, Tapit–Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor). O-D. J. Stable LLC, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds and CJ Stables; B-Lothenbach Stables Inc (KY); T-Mark E. Casse. Sales History: $1,200,000 2yo '24 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSP, 7-2-1-2, $444,595. Last start: 3rd Feb. 23 GII Rebel Stakes.

Sandman, a $1.2 million OBSMAR colt by Tapit, is ranked as the second favorite at 3-1 on the morning line for Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby.

Trainer Mark Casse has replaced jockey Cristian Torres with Jose Ortiz. In back-to-back stakes at Oaklawn, Torres was faced with essentially the same decision aboard Sandman on the far turn.

In the Jan. 25 GIII Southwest Stakes, Sandman was asked to drive through a narrow gap at the rail after experiencing earlier trip trouble then weaving deftly through the pack. He closed with authority to run a sharp second against the grain of a speed-favoring surface.

In the Feb. 23 GII Rebel Stakes, Torres again cut his colt between horses while mounting a far-turn bid, but after Sandman briefly stalled three-eighths out, the colt was asked to go wide for the drive instead of taking another chance up the fence. He closed capably for third, but without the visual flourish from his previous start.

Casse lamented post-Rebel that Sandman was too far back, and that would he rather see him stalking from five or six lengths off the pace instead of spotting the field 15 lengths.

Ortiz on Saturday will likely be tasked with staying more in touch with the pacemakers. He's ridden Sandman twice previously at age 2 and both times finished fifth, in the colt's beaten-favorite sprint debut, and in the one-turn-mile GIII Iroquois Stakes.

Final Gambit | Coady Media

9) FINAL GAMBIT (c, Not This Time–Pachinko, by Tapit). O/B-Juddmonte (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-1, $520,639. Last start: WON Mar. 22 GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes.

Final Gambit (Not This Time) will be a true wild card heading into the Derby, and he's rated this highly simply on the basis that he could “freak out” in the best possible sense of that term.

This Brad Cox-trained homebred for Juddmonte has never even raced on dirt, let alone won over it. But his going-away victory in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes–which was not a fully polished performance–was his second straight off-the-tailgate win over Tapeta, and it left the impression that there could be enough raw talent to build a plausible case for him peaking over 10 furlongs in six weeks.

This gray absorbed a bump at the break that didn't really seem to faze him, and he was content to lag in last around the first turn. Edged off the inside and out to the five path for the backstretch run, jockey Luan Machado essentially built a six-furlong bid by letting this colt slowly unwind.

After initially weaving between rivals while still parked at the back, Machado took Final Gambit way outside for the far-turn run, explaining after the race that, “Sometimes, when he's between horses, he doesn't try as hard as when he's in the clear.”

Final Gambit came nine wide for the drive and briefly shied from rivals to his inside in both upper- and mid-stretch, but he kicked clear late to win by 3 1/2 lengths.

He earned a 90 Beyer over a racing surface that played to his running style. The 13 races at Turfway Mar. 22 yielded only one wire-to-wire winner, two speed-centric winners, three stalkers, and no fewer than seven deep-closing winners.

10) TIZTASTIC (c, Tiz the Law–Keesha, by Tapit). O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor and Derrick Smith; B-Capital Bloodstock (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales history: $80,000 Ylg '23 KEEJAN;  $335,000 Ylg '23 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GSW, 8-3-1-2, $1,549,800. Last start: WON Mar. 22 GII Louisiana Derby.

Tiztastic (Tiz the Law) picked an opportunistic time to notch his first lifetime dirt win in Saturday's GII Louisiana Derby. He had previously won two turf races in the span of 10 days late last summer at Kentucky Downs, but true to form for most of Steve Asmussen's  Kentucky Derby contenders, this colt sports a good foundation of five two-turn graded stakes dirt races between October and March that will serve him well moving forward.

This year's Louisiana Derby was by no means a “loaded” race, featuring no contenders previously ranked within TDN's Derby Top 12 list.

Tiztastic ($80,000 KEEJAN, $335,000 KEESEP) enjoyed a nicely settled trip under Joel Rosario, parked next to last until midway down the backstretch before exhibiting forward momentum over the course of a long, steady drive with clear sailing at the rail. He sparked into a noticeably quicker cadence about 2 1/2 furlongs out, then swept widest for the drive in the five path.

The long Fair Grounds stretch was most definitely Tiztastic's friend, and he came over the top with purpose after cresting the eighth pole to draw away to a 2 1/4-length tally that translated to a career-best 95 Beyer. But he was passing only spent horses in the final stages, and none of the horses in his wake were making legitimate late runs.

11) TAPPAN STREET (c, Into Mischief–Virginia Key, by Distorted Humor). O-WinStar Farm LLC, CHC, Inc. and Cold Press Racing. B-Blue Heaven Farm (KY). T-Brad H. Cox. Lifetime record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $73,000. Last race: 2nd Feb. 1 Holy Bull Stakes.

Tappan Street, a $1-million FTSAUG colt by Into Mischief, broke his maiden at first asking at Gulfstream in a seven-eighths sprint Dec. 28. That race yielded three next out winners, and Tappan Street himself came back to run a game second as the favorite in the Feb. 1 GIII Holy Bull Stakes.

Approaching the quarter pole, four different horses had already taken turns on the lead in the Holy Bull, and Tappan Street looked like he had timed it just right before Burnham Square (Liam's Map) zeroed in on him at the sixteenth pole. Given the circumstances (first time against winners, first time around two turns), the effort stood out.

This Brad Cox trainee drew post nine for Saturday's Florida Derby at 5-1 in the morning line. Luis Saez has the return call.

12) COAL BATTLE (c, Coal Front–Wolfblade, by Midshipman). O-Norman Stables LLC; B-Hume Wornall & Jay Adcock (KY); T-Lonnie Briley. Sales history: $70,000 Ylg '23 TTAYRL.  Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-5-0-0, $1,188,875. Last start: WON Feb. 23 GII Rebel stakes.

Since November, Coal Battle ($70,000 TTAYRL) has won four stakes in succession–the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs, the Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington, plus the Smarty Jones Stakes and the GII Rebel Stakes, both at Oaklawn.

A versatile overachiever, he's scored on the front end and from farther back, and he's also won twice over wet surfaces when you include his maiden tally at Evangeline Downs back in July. So he certainly isn't a one-dimensional colt who requires things his own way, pace- or surface-wise.

In his 91-Beyer effort in the Rebel, this son of Coal Front broke running from the rail, settled back to lead the second flight, tipped to the outside for his far-turn bid, then hit another gear under minimal urging between the five-sixteenths and quarter poles.

Accosting the pacemaker in upper stretch, this Lonnie Briley trainee raced unfocused for a few strides, then secured the lead for good under left-handed urging to win by 1 1/4 lengths.

The Rebel got a boost last Saturday when Tiztastic, its fifth-place finisher, upset the Louisiana Derby field.

Coal Battle is 7-2 on the morning line for Saturday's Arkansas Derby.

The post TDN Derby Top 12: Long-Awaited Spring Thaw on Horizon appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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