TDN Derby Top 12: One More Big Weekend to Go

[Wandering Eyes]

We're on the cusp of the one-month mark to the GI Kentucky Derby and this Saturday marks the most important weekend of nine-furlong preps on the Triple Crown calendar, with significant stakes at Santa Anita, Keeneland, and Aqueduct. Next week the Top 12 expands to the Top 20 as the actual field begins to take shape.

1) CITIZEN BULL (c, Into Mischief-No Joke, by Distorted Humor) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Catherine Donovan; B-Robert Low & Lawana Low (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $675,000 Ylg '23 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, MGISW, 5-4-0-1, $1,421,000. Last start: WON Feb. 1 GIII Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

Citizen Bull, the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner and 2-year-old champion colt, will take a 4-for-5 record into Saturday's GI Santa Anita Derby. He's wired the field in three consecutive graded two-turn stakes and will break from post two in a field of five.

This $675,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief will be starting Saturday off a nine-week layoff. According to DRF's Formulator, over the past five years, trainer Bob Baffert has won at a 27-for-81 clip (33%) with starters at all levels returning from layoffs of 60-70 days. When you narrow the parameter to only include Grade I stakes for the same layoff range, Baffert's win ratio remains consistent at 6-for-19 (32%)

But Baffert's layoff approach to the Santa Anita Derby has always been different. He's had at least one starter in most Santa Anita Derbies since he first won that stakes with Cavonnier in 1996. Yet on only six occasions over the past three decades has Baffert sent out a Santa Anita Derby starter who didn't have his most recent race in March.

None of those half-dozen horses who made their last starts in February (or earlier) were considered Baffert's A-list contenders in those years. None of them were favored, and none of them won.

So what does that mean for Citizen Bull? Well, the colt already won this year coming off a 13-week layoff back on Feb. 1, so it might not matter much for him as an individual.

But Baffert taking the nine-weeks-off approach with the highest-ranked horse in his stable is a departure from the shorter-spaced schedules of his nine previous Santa Anita Derby winners, all of whom last raced between Mar. 1 and 20.

2) JOURNALISM (c, Curlin-Mopotism, by Uncle Mo) O-Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Elayne Stables 5 LLC, LaPenta, Robert V., Mrs, John Magnier, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Michael W. McCarthy. Sales history: $825,000 Ylg '23 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-1, $338,880. Last start: WON Mar. 1 GII San Felipe Stakes.

This $825,000 FTSAUG colt by Curlin is an athletic stalker who will attempt to capitalize on whatever pace materializes in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby.

But how fully cranked should we expect Journalism to be four weeks out from the Kentucky Derby, especially considering that this Michael McCarthy trainee has already locked up enough points to qualify and is coming off a best-in-division 108 Beyer Speed Figure in his previous win, the GII San Felipe Stakes?

The emphatic, commanding nature of Journalism's San Felipe score somewhat obscures the fact that this is still a colt with only four lifetime races who is unproven beyond 1 1/16 miles. And in three of those four career starts, Journalism faced only four other starters, so the bulk of his experience has been against short fields.

Although Journalism was a touch tardy in changing leads in his first two maiden races, he has since figured out what it takes to be effective in deep stretch. From the eighth pole home, he has always improved his position, and has either gained lengths on the leader (in his one defeat) or extended his winning margin (in three straight victories around two turns).

Journalism gets high marks for willingly responding to in-race cues to quicken with metronomic precision, and his far-turn torque and the way he targets and confronts horses ahead of him stands out against his peers.

3) TAPPAN STREET (c, Into Mischief-Virginia Key, by Distorted Humor) O-WinStar Farm LLC, CHC, Inc. and Cold Press Racing; B-Blue Heaven Farm (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $1,000,000 yrl '23 FTNAUG. Lifetime record: GISW, 3-2-1-0, $643,400. Last race: WON Mar. 29 GI Florida Derby.

Although he'll likely go into the Derby as the lightest-raced top contender with only three lifetime races, Tappan Street's 94-Beyer GI Florida Derby tally over nine furlongs stamps him as a capable stalker who has enough tactical speed to secure advantageous positioning in a 20-horse field.

He still needs to find about 10 Beyer points over the next 4 1/2 weeks in order to be considered a true win candidate, but as a $1-million FTSAUG colt by Into Mischief, improvement on that order of magnitude is not unrealistic considering the way this colt makes his own breaks and how much confidence jockey Luis Saez exhibits when riding him.

Bet down to the 2.4-1 second choice, this Brad Cox trainee broke alertly from post nine, backed off the pace while four deep through the first turn, then settled 3 1/2 lengths off the pacemakers down the backside.

Unwinding at will, Tappan Street snatched third under hand-urging five-sixteenths out, then gradually built momentum off the turn while targeting a dueling duo that offered little resistance when Tappan Street came over the top at the eighth pole.

With the on-rushing 1.7-1 favorite Sovereignty (Into Mischief) looming as the final danger, Tappan Street transitioned into a higher gear to hold that rival at bay without appearing fully extended.

“He was traveling professionally,” Saez said. “I saw [Sovereignty] and I let my horse go a little bit more, and he gave me a good turn of foot. When he came to the top of the stretch, I knew it was going to be tough to catch [us].”

Tappan Street | Lauren King

4) CAPTAIN COOK (c, Practical Joke-Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-St. Elias Stable; B-Marylou Whitney Stables, LLC (KY); T-Richard E. Dutrow, Jr. Sales history: $410,000 2yo '24 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-0-0, $188,256. Last start: WON Feb. 1 Withers Stakes.

Much like in the write-up for Citizen Bull, Captain Cook will be attempting this weekend's GII Wood Memorial Stakes off a nine-week break and a win in his last race, the Feb. 1 Withers Stakes. He drew post two in a 12-horse field that has no shortage of early speed on paper.

Since 2023, Rick Dutrow Jr. has compiled a 5-for-20 record with layoff returnees in the range of 60 to 70 days. During that time, he has only attempted a layoff of that length twice in graded stakes, with no wins.

Captain Cook has already won off a nine-week respite once in his three lifetime starts, with that victory coming in his first start for Dutrow Dec. 28 after being purchased for $410,000 at the Keeneland November Horses of Racing Age Sale.

This 'TDN Rising Star' by Practical Joke followed up that 9 1/4-length maiden blowout over a sloppy seven furlongs at Aqueduct with a no-nonsense, 94-Beyer two-turn debut over nine furlongs in the Withers.

Captain Cook is currently ranked 32nd on the Derby points leaderboard with 20 points.

5) SOVEREIGNTY (c, Into Mischief-Crowned, by Bernardini) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-William I. Mott. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-2-2-0, $572,800. Last start: 2nd Mar. 29 GI Florida Derby.

Going into the Florida Derby, the vibe around Sovereignty was that he didn't have to win to still be considered a major player for the Kentucky Derby. As a deep closer who had drawn the outermost post, it didn't seem imperative to push him for an over-the-top effort with the main goal five weeks down the road in Louisville.

This Into Mischief-sired homebred for Godolphin reliably closed from off the tailgate with a four-wide stretch bid to get second behind the rapidly improving Tappan Street. He was 2 3/4 lengths clear of the pacemakers who had dueled themselves into defeat, and there were no other closers making significant late moves.

Sovereignty's Beyer figure took a haircut from 95 to 92. He had won his previous two starts, the Mar. 1 GII Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Oct. 27 GIII Street Sense Stakes.

“He came with his run. He ran well,” trainer Bill Mott said. “He got a little wide going into the first turn, but he got in and got a pretty good trip. [Jockey Manny Franco] said the ground kind of broke away from him two different times, once at the three-eighths pole and once at the five-sixteenths pole. He said he kind of lost it and gathered himself up, and then he did it again…

“This doesn't have to be his best race. Sometimes you can look at it and say maybe that's a good thing. You don't want their best race before the big event,” Mott continued. “This is a very important race, but I think the fact that he ran very big last time and ran very well this time, maybe he'll continue to improve. I don't think the fact that he didn't win doesn't mean he didn't run a good race.”

6) BARNES (c, Into Mischief-All American Dream, by American Pharoah) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Jeff Drown and Don Rachel, LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $3,200,000 Ylg '23 FTSAUG. Lifetime record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $249,000. Last start: 2nd Mar. 1 GII San Felipe Stakes.

In order to make the cut for Louisville, this $3.2-million FTSAUG colt by Into Mischief needs qualifying points out of Saturday's Santa Anita Derby.

It also would boost his stock if those points were accrued via victory, because otherwise Barnes would be in the unusual position of trying to win the Kentucky Derby without having finished first in a two-turn race.

As far back as the start of the season, trainer Bob Baffert has been comparing Barnes favorably to the colt's maternal grandsire, the 2015 champ American Pharoah.

But superlatives only go so far until a horse proves he can thrive over added ground. American Pharoah, by contrast, won three graded two-turn stakes at ages two and three before sweeping the Triple Crown.

Coming off a 93-Beyer dismantling of the seven-furlong GII San Vicente Stakes field Jan. 4 and a pressure-taking, 105-Beyer runner-up effort in the San Felipe Stakes, Barnes drew post four for the Santa Anita Derby.

Barnes | Benoit

7) RIVER THAMES (c, Maclean's Music-Proportionality, by Discreet Cat) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-CHC, Inc. and WinStar Farm LLC; B-CTR Stables, LLC (NY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $200,000 Ylg '23 FTNAUG. Lifetime Record: GSP, 3-2-1-0, $164,400. Last start: 2nd, Mar. 1 GII Fountain of Youth Stakes.

'TDN Rising Star' River Thames is expected to be entered on Tuesday for Saturday's Apr. 5 GI Blue Grass Stakes. This Todd Pletcher trainee will be getting a jockey switch from John Velazquez to Irad Ortiz Jr.

This New York-bred delivered a decent second-place try, beaten only a neck by Sovereignty, in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.

After winning his first two starts at six furlongs and over a one-turn mile at Gulfstream, River Thames flashed speed in his first try around two turns. But after pressing the pace on the inside through the first bend, John Velazquez backed off and switched him outside of the leader on the backstretch.

Roused to re-engage with three furlongs left, River Thames wrested control of the race off the final turn. Once clear, he stayed on reasonably well despite a momentary stray from concentration which might have contributed to Sovereignty nailing him in the shadow of the wire.

8) RODRIGUEZ (c, Authentic-Cayala, by Cherokee Run) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Catherine Donovan; B-Kingswood Farm & David Egan (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $485,000 Ylg KEESEP '23. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $122,800. Last start: 3rd Mar. 1 GII San Felipe Stakes.

After Rodriguez finished second in his sprint debut, he delivered a professional, seven-length smackdown in a front-running, one-mile maiden win at Santa Anita Jan. 4.

Timed in 1:35.91, that 100-Beyer score was .24 seconds faster than a seasoned group of older allowance/optional claiming males covered the same distance five races later. That victory earned this $485,000 KEESEP colt 'TDN Rising Star' status.

In the Feb. 1. GIII Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Rodriguez chased favored Citizen Bull, lost momentum when switching off the inside mid-race, then re-rallied to get second behind his 2-year-old champion stablemate.

In the Mar. 1 San Felipe Stakes, Rodriguez was outclassed but not disgraced when third, 11 1/4 lengths behind Journalism and Barnes. He flashed speed from the gate to pressure Barnes, but looked out of his comfort zone when a keyed-up 45-1 shot ranged to his outside entering the backstretch, compelling Rodriguez to quicken stride to maintain position from between horses.

Getting back to freewheeling on the front end might be the key for Rodriguez to succeed over nine furlongs.

That was the most effective running style for his sire, Authentic, who wired both the Kentucky Derby and the GI Breeders' Cup Classic in 2020. Authentic was 5-for-5 in races where he seized the lead straight out of the gate, but only 1-for-3 in races in which he got headed at some point.

Rodriguez was entered for Saturday's Wood Memorial. He drew the rail with Mike Smith named to ride.

Trainer Bob Baffert has only made six starts at Aqueduct in the past five years. Two were with sophomores in the GIII Gotham Stakes in 2021 and 2022, and neither won.

It's conceivable that Rodriguez could also be entered on Tuesday for Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, giving Baffert the opportunity to pick the spot that appears most advantageous.

9) SANDMAN (c, Tapit-Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor) O-D. J. Stable LLC, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds and CJ Stables; B-Lothenbach Stables Inc (KY); T-Mark E. Casse. Sales History: $1,200,000 2yo '24 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 8-3-1-2, $1,254,595. Last start: WON Mar. 29 GI Arkansas Derby.

When the two pacemakers in Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby peeled off from the pack by 10 lengths down the backstretch in overzealous opening quarter-mile splits of :22.46 and :22.75, it was not a matter of if they would come back to the field, but which deep closer would reel them in.

This $1.2-million OBSMAR gray was up to the task after coming up short with his late runs when second and third earlier this winter in two Oaklawn prep stakes at 1 1/16 miles.

Off as the 3.7-1 third choice, Sandman rated from next-to-last in the nine-horse field, careened five wide into the lane, then inhaled the caving leaders.

His only competition in the run to the wire was a seven-start maiden, but the not-fully-focused Sandman made even that seemingly simple task appear fraught with risk, as he veered sharply outward at the eighth pole when jockey Jose Ortiz applied one stern left-handed crack of the crop.

Sandman then straightened out and ran well to the wire, winning by 2 1/2 lengths under steady handling (99 Beyer).

“He was a little shy from the whip from the left hand,” Ortiz said post-win. “I could see that from the replays the last time. I tried one time and didn't try it again. So he was rolling.”

Trainer Mark Casse noted the effort didn't appear to take much out of Sandman.

“Jose said he didn't take a deep breath when he pulled up,” Casse said.

Sandman | Coady Media

10) FINAL GAMBIT (c, Not This Time-Pachinko, by Tapit) O/B-Juddmonte (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-1, $520,639. Last start: WON Mar. 22 GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes.

Final Gambit made his debut in a Nov. 9 mile grass route at Churchill. Off at 3.7-1 odds, he got pinballed at the break, jostled in the back third of a tightly packed field, lost momentum, then re-bid again entering the far turn. By upper stretch this gray was repeatedly hemmed atop the heels of horses. Yet Final Gambit sparked anew to make up five lengths inside the eighth pole, finishing third before galloping out well (60 Beyer).

This Brad Cox-trained homebred for Juddmonte next ran Jan. 4 as the 1.25-1 favorite in a Tapeta mile at Turfway. He was forwardly placed from post 10 in a multi-horse scramble and assertively stalked a 44-1 pacemaker. Although Final Gambit had the leader at his mercy turning for home, he lacked a final thrust to seal the deal and spent a good portion of his stretch run gawking toward the grandstand (66 Beyer).

Third time out, on Feb. 15, this colt went off favored at 1.24-1 in a driving rainstorm in another Turfway mile. He broke running, detached himself way off the back, then circled the field six deep. Final Gambit again had his attention fixated to the outside, but he had built enough momentum to blow past three tiring speedsters for the win (64 Beyer).

Cast adrift at 15-1 in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes, Final Gambit absorbed a bump at the break and again took up residence at the back. Unhurried, he stoked a slow-burn, six-furlong move that combusted into a nine-wide stretch kick. Final Gambit did shy several times from rivals to his inside before blowing past them, opening up late to win by 3 1/2 lengths (90 Beyer).

This colt has some upside as a late-race threat, but to back him with full confidence, you'd have to be willing to bank that he'd be capable of figuring things out (in terms of stretch focus) in his first race over dirt in a 20-horse field.

11) TIZTASTIC (c, Tiz the Law-Keesha, by Tapit) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor and Derrick Smith; B-Capital Bloodstock (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales history: $80,000 Ylg '23 KEEJAN;  $335,000 Ylg '23 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GSW, 8-3-1-2, $1,549,800. Last start: WON Mar. 22 GII Louisiana Derby.

Tiztastic is a little light in the numbers department, taking eight career starts to finally crack the 90-Beyer barrier with a 95 in his GII Louisiana Derby win. But in his favor are decent showings in five straight two-turn graded dirt stakes, and in his overall eight-race body of work, he's never been worse than fifth or been beaten by more than 6 1/2 lengths.

He figures to sit off the pace and roll late, but Tiztastic is by no means a one-dimensional closer. His past performances suggest he can be effective stalking (like when third in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November), and he has a touch more experience than most Derby contenders with racing in larger fields (two 10-horse races, once each in fields of 12 and 13).

It's true that the Louisiana Derby came up light this year and that historically, winners of that stakes have only twice gone on to win the Kentucky Derby (Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996).

Yet Tiztastic ran respectably against some of the division's heavier Eastern-based hitters last autumn, and he could evolve into a wise-guy Derby selection as the race nears simply based on experience and versatility.

12) BURNHAM SQUARE (g, Liam's Map-Linda, by Scat Daddy) O/B-Whitham Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY); T-Ian R. Wilkes. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-1-1, $222,130. Last start: 4th Mar. 1 GII Fountain of Youth Stakes.

Burnham Square is an expected entrant for Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes. He's currently ranked 24th with 30 Derby qualifying points.

He was most recently fourth as the 1.9-1 favorite, beaten three lengths by Sovereignty in the Mar. 1 Fountain of Youth Stakes.

Two starts back, in the Feb. 1 GIII Holy Bull Stakes, this Whitham Thoroughbreds homebred by Liam's Map dropped back to last in the early going, then marched up at the fence with little coaxing.

When one of the pacemakers dropped back, Burnham Square was briefly blocked, but he forged his own clear path, bumping lightly with a rival entering the far turn while coming free from cover in the four path.

Burnham Square put away the favored Tappan Street to win the Holy Bull, and that rival came back this past weekend to annex the Florida Derby.

This colt did previously orchestrate a nine-length maiden win around two turns at Gulfstream while leading for most of the trip, so he's not necessarily relegated to firing from off the tailgate.

The post TDN Derby Top 12: One More Big Weekend to Go appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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