Week In Review: On Kentucky Derby Points System, It’s Not Producing Intended Results

[Wandering Eyes]

The goal of the Kentucky Derby points system should be to make sure the 20 best 3-year olds in the sport make it into the field. Churchill Downs has tweaked the system a couple of times over the years and the changes, for the most part, have been well received.

It's a different story this year. Churchill has tweaked the system so that in any race with five horses or fewer the horses receive fewer points than races with six or more horses. The rule is clearly aimed at Santa Anita, where getting fields of six horses or more in its Derby prep races has been a chore. And, who knows, might this be another way to penalize Bob Baffert, whose Derby hopefuls often wind up in races with short fields?

This year's GI Santa Anita Derby drew a field of only five, but many were calling it the best prep race run so far this year. Nonetheless, the points structure was reduced by 25%, with the winner getting 75 points for the victory and the runner-up 37.5 points.

That was not a problem for Journalism (Curlin), who had more than enough points to get into the Derby before winning the Santa Anita Derby. The horse that was penalized was Baeza (McKinzie). A half brother to 2023 GI Kentucky Derby winner Mage (Good Magic) and 2024 GI Belmont winner Dornoch (Good Magic), he ran a bang-up race in the Santa Anita Derby to finish just three-quarters of a length behind Journalism. With further improvement, he could be a major factor in the Derby, and he belongs in the race.

But because he got only 37.5 points for finishing second and not 50, he's on the outside looking when it comes to the Derby. With 50 points he'd be a shoo-in the make the race, but right now he sits in 23rd place. There will no doubt be a number of defections before the race, so he'll probably get in. But there's no reason why he should have to sweat things out. There are horse sitting ahead of him that are clearly inferior.

The other problem is that California trainers have been throwing horses into the stakes that, on paper, have no shot, but their presence contributes to the number of points awarded. John Shirreffs did just that when entering the maiden Westwood (Authentic), a stablemate of Baeza, in the Santa Anita Derby. He actually ran third, ahead of the disappointing Baffert due of Citizen Bull (Into Mischief) and Barnes (Into Mischief), who were last and next to last.

Small fields or not, the California preps, year after year, have turned out to include several Derby-worthy horses. Never was that more evident than on Saturday when Rodriguez (Authentic) shipped in from California for Baffert and won the GII Wood Memorial. This is the same Rodriguez who was third, beaten 11 1/4 lengths by Journalism, in the GII San Felipe S. His victory in the Wood proved how strong the California contingent is.

Awarding fewer points in the Santa Anita Derby than in races like the Wood Memorial and the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S., doesn't make any sense, and isn't fair.

Just go back to the old system, where field size didn't matter. Churchill broke what didn't need fixing.

Mike Smith is returning to the Kentucky Derby with a live shot in Rodriguez | Sarah Andrew

“Big Money” Mike Smith Has His Derby Horse

It will be good to see Mike Smith back in the Derby this year. He won Saturday's Wood Memorial aboard Rodriguez. Should that colt make the Derby, it will be Smith's 29th career Derby mount. He has won the race only twice. He had his first Derby mount 41 years ago when riding Pine Circle to a sixth-place finish in the 1984 Derby. Now 59, he was 18 at the time. No other jockey has come close to ring in the Derby over a span of 41 years. Bill Shoemaker is next with his Derby mounts coming over a period of 36 years

Smith has not had a Derby mount since Taiba (Gun Runner) in 2022.

Watch Out for Yedsit Hazlewood

Yedsit Hazlewood is still a 10-pound bug boy and is just starting out, but the 17-year-old is already being compared to some of the other top apprentices that have come out of Maryland. He failed to win with his first 12 mounts, but won two races on Friday's card at Laurel and two more on Saturday.

“This kid is from Panama,” said trainer and retired jockey Jose Corrales, who has been mentoring the teenager. “He's been in [jockey] school in Panama, and he's been at the racetrack since he was nine years old. He's got so much talent. I'm thinking he's going to be one of the Ortiz kids in the future. Now, he's ready. I'm putting him on all my horses. I got [him] an agent [John DiNatale], and he's got a chance to ride for everybody. He's got the perfect size, the weight, and that's the main thing.”

They Don't Make Them Like They Used To

While short fields continue to be a problem for the sport, it's not so much that we don't have enough horses–it's that we don't have enough horses that can run even six or seven times a year. According to the Jockey Club Fact Book, the average starts per runner in 2024 was 5.86. Go all the way back 50 years ago to 1975 and that number was 10.23. The average field size in 2024 was 7.39. In 1975 it was 8.82.

I've never bought into the premise that horses are more fragile than they used to be. The problem lies with the trainers, who are petrified to run their horses back within two or three weeks. How do we break this pattern? The only solution is to convince trainers that the more often they run their horses, the more money they can make for their owners and themselves. Too many, though, have drank the Kool-Aid.

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