TDN Kentucky Derby Preview: And the Winner Is…

[Wandering Eyes]

The field for the GI Kentucky Derby, ranked in “likeliest winner” order.

1) JOURNALISM (c, Curlin–Mopotism, by Uncle Mo). O-Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Elayne Stables 5 LLC, LaPenta, Robert V., Magnier, Mrs. John, Smith, Derrick and Tabor, Michael B.; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Michael W. McCarthy. Sales history: $825,000 Ylg '23 FTSAUG. Lifetime record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $638,880. Last start: WON Apr. 5 GI Santa Anita Derby.

Journalism is the legitimate and deserving favorite. He checks many of the Derby desirability boxes by being a big, long-striding colt who has won three straight two-turn graded stakes with a confident, powerful way of going and fast speed figures. Through only five starts, Journalism has honed a level of gravitas unmatched by his peers.

This athletic $825,000 FTSAUG colt by Curlin from trainer Michael McCarthy's stable drew the eight post outside the Derby's two main speed threats, which will give Umberto Rispoli the chance to position him advantageously within the first flight, playing to Journalism's stalk-and-throttle style.

Journalism comes into the Derby after having run the two most visually impressive races on the sophomore portion of the Derby prep calendar.

His win in the GII San Felipe Stakes (108 Beyer Speed Figure) was punctuated by a prolonged, three-deep sweep on the far turn that he torqued to an emphatic stretch kick, and his 102-Beyer GI Santa Anita Derby score was accomplished despite significant momentum loss three-eighths from the wire when Journalism got trapped in tight quarters down near the fence.

Favorites are always a dicey proposition in the Derby, no matter how talented the horse. The public's choice has now lost the last six Derbies after winning six straight between 2013 and 2018.

There are some knocks against Journalism, but you have to reach to come up with them.

With four races against only four other rivals (and one start against nine others), he's inexperienced against large fields.

Journalism (like four other entrants in this year's race) will also be trying to buck an 0-for-49 streak that has beset every Derby entrant between 2017 and 2024 who has attempted to win the Derby with only two prior starts at age three.

And it's an open question as to how much that dominant Santa Anita Derby took out of this colt four weeks ago. Journalism basically got stopped on the far turn, had to shoulder aside a rival, then ran hard all the way to the wire.

Sovereignty gallops under the spires Tuesday morning | Renee Torbit/Coady Media

2) SOVEREIGNTY (c, Into Mischief–Crowned, by Bernardini). O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-William I. Mott; Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-2-2-0, $572,800. Last start: 2nd Mar. 29 GI Florida Derby.

This Into Mischief-sired homebred for Godolphin is the Derby's most dangerous deep closer. The “how he did it” aspects of Sovereignty's best races exceed the “how fast” metrics of the speed figures he was assigned for those efforts.

Sure, all winter and spring long, this column has warned of the dangers of falling in love with an off-the-tailgate type in a 20-horse race. Too often, late runners like Sovereignty are at the mercy of the pace and/or traffic.

But there's something to be said for being able to reliably fire with one sustained run, and Sovereignty's last-to-first clock-cleanings of talented fields in both the GII Street Sense Stakes in October and the GII Fountain of Youth Stakes in March attest to his ability to finish races with exclamation points.

In the Derby, trainer Bill Mott will go back to regular rider Junior Alvarado, who had missed Sovereignty's not-fully-cranked second in the GI Florida Derby because of a shoulder blade fracture sustained in a March spill.

Yes, Sovereignty is a touch light in the speed figures department, with a lifetime Beyer progression of 79-89-87-95-92. Daily Racing Form lists 103 as the Derby's winning Beyer par.

But considering Sovereignty's pedigree resonates with Triple Crown race-winning royalty (Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, A.P. Indy, Empire Maker and Bernardini, to name a few), it's reasonable to speculate he'll be a longer-the-better type of performer capable of producing faster figures at 10 furlongs and beyond.

3) CITIZEN BULL (c, Into Mischief–No Joke, by Distorted Humor). O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Catherine Donovan; B-Robert Low & Lawana Low (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $675,000 Ylg '23 KEESEP. Lifetime record: MGISW, 6-4-0-1, $1,451,000. Last start: 4th Apr. 5 GI Santa Anita Derby.

At 20-1 on the morning line, the 2-year-old champ has really taken a hit from the public's pricing perspective over the past month.

Part of that confidence drop is attributable to this Bob Baffert trainee running like a “short” horse when backpedaling to fourth in the Santa Anita Derby.

Other bettors will be scared off by Citizen Bull having drawn the dreaded inside post, a position that often results in good horses getting buried behind a crowded wall of rivals. Gate one has not delivered a Derby winner since 1986.

On the flip side, that narrative translates to significant value if you are willing to gamble that Baffert has sufficiently tightened Citizen Bull in the past month or so.

And if you further feel that this colt's natural speed won't make breaking from the rail too much of an issue, there is quite a bit of upside arguing in favor of Citizen Bull being the overlay of this year's Derby.

This $675,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief wired three graded stakes routes between October and February. Look to his sophomore debut in the GIII Robert B. Lewis Stakes as the race that showcased Citizen Bull at his best. He pummeled two capable stablemates at 9-10 odds despite a bobble at the break and never being roused for his full run.

If Citizen Bull scores on Saturday, he'll be only the third GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner in 41 years to also win the Derby, joining Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016.

4) RODRIGUEZ (c, Authentic–Cayala, by Cherokee Run). 'TDN Rising Star'. O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Catherine Donovan; B-Kingswood Farm & David Egan (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $485,000 Ylg KEESEP '23. Lifetime record: GSW, 5-2-2-1, $522,800. Last start: WON Apr. 5 GII Wood Memorial Stakes.

'TDN Rising Star' Rodriguez has breakout-race momentum on his side coming out of a wiring of the GII Wood Memorial Stakes. If you believe he is stamped after his sire, the later-developing 2020 3-year-old champ Authentic (who won the pandemic-shifted Derby in September), it's reasonable to expect this colt's best races are ahead of him.

But it's also fair to question whether Rodriguez, a May 20 foal who won't turn three until three days after the GI Preakness Stakes, is ready for prime time just yet.

Although he has caught the eye with two triple-digit Beyer performances (his Jan. 4 maiden win and the Apr. 5 Wood Memorial), he was cuffed around by the likes of Journalism and Citizen Bull in two other California stakes, and in both those efforts he looked out of his element when tasked with having to chase the pace while never settling between rivals.

Trainer Bob Baffert took the blinkers off this $485,000 KEESEP colt for the Wood because he and jockey Mike Smith believe Rodriguez is a more comfortable free-runner when allowed to see what's around him.

The result was a more professional, seize-the-lead performance. Rodriguez took heat from the favorite, shrugged him off, then swatted back a late challenger to win with his ears pricked by 3 1/2 lengths. His final time of 1:48.15 was the fastest nine-furlong clocking in any points-awarding Derby prep stakes since 2022.

Although I had Rodriguez at No. 2 and stablemate Citizen Bull at No. 5 in the last edition of these rankings, they're flip-flopped for the final version because of experience. Flashes of raw talent have been there, but Rodriguez has yet to put together back-to-back 'Don't mess with me' types of races.

And while Citizen Bull's post one gate placement gets a bad rap for not producing Derby winners (8-for-95 since the advent of the starting gate in 1930), Rodriguez's post four is even worse at 5-for-95.

Baeza, currently on the outside looking in | Stephen Ibanez/Coady Media

5) BAEZA (c, McKinzie–Puca, by Big Brown). O-C R K Stable LLC and Grandview Equine; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-John A. Shirreffs. Sales history: $1,200,000 Ylg '23 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GSP 4-1-2-0, $148,500. Last start: 2nd Apr. 5 GI Santa Anita Derby.

At No. 21, Baeza is currently outside looking in as an also-eligible. He would need one other Derby entrant to scratch prior to 9 a.m. Friday to gain the privilege of starting from the outermost gate.

Although he's only broken his maiden, Baeza is intriguing because he's a half-brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage and 2024 GI Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch.

Family ties aside, Baeza has held his own against strong company, finishing second to both Journalism and Rodriguez earlier this year.

In the Santa Anita Derby, this $1.2 million KEESEP colt by McKinzie stalked outside, then got first run at Citizen Bull on the far turn. He led between the three-sixteenths and sixteenth poles, and although he did lose focus for a few strides in deep stretch (that can be forgiven; Baeza is just a May 13 foal), he tried his best to run with the far-more-accomplished Journalism. Baeza reportedly lost his right front shoe at some point in that race.

After Baeza clocked the slowest five-eighths breeze out of 15 workers at that distance Monday at Churchill Downs, trainer John Shirreffs said he was okay with the 1:02 workout.

“I know 1:02 is a little on the slow side, but he's not an especially sharp work horse,” Shirreffs said. “We put a good work into him last week [seven furlongs in 1:28 at Santa Anita on Apr. 20]  and he's ready. We just need to get a little lucky and get him into the race.”

6) LUXOR CAFÉ (c, American Pharoah–Mary's Follies, by More Than Ready). O-Koichi Nishikawa; B-Orpendale/Chelston/Wynatt & Westerberg Ireland ULC (KY); T-Noriyuki Hori. Lifetime record: SW-Japan, 6-4-1-0, $377,323. Last start: WON Mar. 29 Fukuryu Stakes.

While neither of the two Japan-based contenders for this year's Derby are projected to be as tough or as talented as Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}), who last year landed third in a three-way photo for the win, this Kentucky-bred son of American Pharoah from Noriyuki Hori's stable rates in the top third of the 2025 field based on his ability to produce a startlingly quick turn of foot in the late stages of his races.

Luxor Café has now won four straight (twice over a metric nine furlongs), showing good rhythm and response while closing into paces that were not as robust as he's likely to encounter on Saturday.

This full brother to Japanese dirt champion Cafe Pharoah has twice beaten Admire Daytona (Jpn) (Drefong), who subsequently rebounded to win the G2 UAE Derby.

While jockey Joao “Magic Man” Moreira is not a household name to American-based bettors, the acclaimed overseas champion and top-notch Hong Kong-based rider brings several decades of international expertise to the Derby.

But as TDN colleague Alan Carasso pointed out earlier this week in an X posting, it's odd that Luxor Café will be Moreira's lone mount at Churchill during the entirety of Derby week, meaning he will not get a chance to get a feel for the track under race conditions while spending a very long day cooped up in the jockeys' room.

Sandman paddock schools Tuesday | Renee Torbit/Coady Media

7) SANDMAN (c, Tapit–Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor). O-D. J. Stable LLC, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds and CJ Stables; B-Lothenbach Stables Inc (KY); T-Mark E. Casse. Sales History: $1,200,000 2yo '24 OBSMAR. Lifetime record: GISW, 8-3-1-2, $1,254,595. Last start: WON Mar. 29 GI Arkansas Derby.

Sandman was rated as high as No. 2 on this list back in February. While I still believe he's built up capable credentials that put him in the hunt for an emphatic finish in the Derby, his two best races were three and four starts back, and he hasn't delivered enough deep-stretch detonation in two stakes since then to stand out as a top-tier threat.

In a Dec. 13 Oaklawn allowance over a short-stretch mile, this $1.2 million OBSMAR son of Tapit broke well from the rail, had a ground-saving go while covered up for most of his backstretch run, then overcame a positioning dilemma by slicing through at the fence to a shoot a narrow gap that easily could have closed and left him blocked. He won by 1 3/4 lengths.

Then in the Jan. 25 GIII Southwest Stakes, Sandman buckled at the ankle then leaped sideways at the start. Relegated to last, he started gathering true steam three-eighths out, uncoiled through the lane, then brushed aside a lugging-out rival to close on a speed-centric track and get second, beaten only a length.

Sandman's third in the Feb. 23 GII Rebel Stakes lacked the visual flourish he had unfurled in his previous start. And his 99-Beyer win in the GI Arkansas Derby came after a torrid pace setup undercut the front-runners, virtually handing the race to any closer who was up to the task of simply showing up.

This gray did arrive on the scene in the stretch, but Sandman shied from one left-handed crack of the crop and veered outward at the eighth pole. He only had to beat a maiden in the final stages to secure the 2 1/2-length victory, not multiple waves of closers like he might face on Saturday.

Having said that, the Arkansas Derby did not appear to take much out of Sandman, and trainer Mark Casse has had five weeks to tighten this colt for a more polished performance. Sandman has a decent foundation of six races at a mile or longer, and he's already raced three times at Churchill.

8) EAST AVENUE (c, Medaglia d'Oro–Dance Music, by Ghostzapper). 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan P. Walsh. Lifetime record: GISW 3-2-0-0, $654,395. Last start: 2nd Apr. 8 GI Blue Grass Stakes.

'TDN Rising Star' East Avenue (Medaglia d'Oro) is a speed-oriented colt who has spent the better part of his winter and spring campaign trying to regain the relevancy that merited 9-5 favoritism in last November's Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

After wiring the GI Breeders' Futurity Stakes at Keeneland last October, this Godolphin homebred from Brendan Walsh's barn lost all chance when stumbling at the break of the Juvenile and finishing ninth.

Then, after a 3 1/2-month break, East Avenue ran tenth as the odds-on choice in the Risen Star Stakes, perplexing his connections (and bettors) because there was no obvious excuse for the poor outing.

Racing with blinkers on for the first time in the GI Blue Grass Stakes while desperate for qualifying points, East Avenue ran a valiant race on the lead despite getting caught in the final jumps.

He was headed and passed in upper stretch but clawed back the lead, and the effort stood out because speed was not staying on at Keeneland that afternoon. Out of seven main-track races on Blue Grass day, six were won by stalkers or closers.

9) BURNHAM SQUARE (g, Liam's Map–Linda, by Scat Daddy). O/B-Whitham Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY); T-Ian R. Wilkes. Lifetime record: GISW, 6-3-1-1, $977,755. Last start: WON Apr. 8 GI Blue Grass Stakes.

Burnham Square is a lighter-framed closer, and being agile and nimble can be advantageous in a 20-horse race like the Derby.

A winner of two of three stakes starts as a sophomore while closing from last in all of them, this Whitham Thoroughbreds homebred by Liam's Map showed in February how being light on his feet can be a plus in crowded conditions.

In the 1 1/16-miles GIII Holy Bull Stakes, Burnham Square marched up the rail on the backstretch, but was bottled up with nowhere to go approaching the far turn. He showed no hesitation while bumping aside a rival to make his own running room, then willingly took aim on the favorite. Even though it took the better part of the stretch to reel him in, this gelding responded to rousing before punching through over a short-stretch configuration.

This Ian Wilkes trainee then ran fourth, beaten only three lengths by Sovereignty in the GII Fountain of Youth Stakes.

His GI Blue Grass Stakes victory was aided by a hot first half mile that ensured slow closing fractions over a track that wasn't kind to speed all afternoon.

Tiztastic Tuesday morning at Churchill | Renee Torbit/Coady Media

10) TIZTASTIC (c, Tiz the Law–Keesha, by Tapit). O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor and Derrick Smith; B-Capital Bloodstock (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales history: $80,000 Ylg '23 KEEJAN;  $335,000 Ylg '23 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GSW, 8-3-1-2, $1,549,800. Last start: WON Mar. 22 GII Louisiana Derby.

Tiztastic (Tiz the Law), who celebrates his birthday Apr. 30, only has one lifetime win on dirt (the GII Louisiana Derby). But how often do you encounter a Thoroughbred who has managed to win million-dollar races on both turf and dirt prior to hitting age three? (In addition to his main-track score at Fair Grounds, the grass victory was the Juvenile Mile Stakes at Kentucky Downs last September).

True to form for most of Steve Asmussen's annual Derby contenders, Tiztastic ($80,000 KEEJAN, $335,000 KEESEP) sports a good foundation of five two-turn graded stakes dirt races between October and March.

Although this year's Louisiana Derby was weak on paper (at the time, it featured no contenders ranked within TDN's Derby Top 12 list), Tiztastic enjoyed a nicely settled trip before sparking into a quicker cadence about 2 1/2 furlongs out.

He swept widest for the drive in the five path, and came over the top with purpose at the eighth pole to draw away to a 2 1/4-length tally that translated to a career-best 95 Beyer.

Yet he was only passing spent horses and was not seriously challenged in the deep stages of that 1 3/16-miles prep.

Tiztastic has experience in larger fields, having twice competed in 10-horse races, and once each in fields of 12 and 13. In his overall eight-race body of work, he's never been worse than fifth or been beaten by more than 6 1/2 lengths.

11) FINAL GAMBIT (c, Not This Time–Pachinko, by Tapit). O/B-Juddmonte (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-1, $520,639. Last start: WON Mar. 22 GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes.

Final Gambit (Not This Time) has a big “ask” ahead of him on Derby day. Coming off a 26-point Beyer improvement in his GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes triumph, this Brad Cox-trained homebred for Juddmonte must again up his Beyer (from 90) by at least another dozen points in what will be his first lifetime race over dirt while breaking from post three, which has a 6-for-95 record in the Derby since 1930.

But Mystik Dan (Goldencents) managed to overcome post three last year by saving ground at a double-digit mutuel, and there's wild-card appeal in the way Final Gambit tears off into his stretch runs that lends believability to the notion that he might all of a sudden come up with a huge effort at an outsized price.

This is a work-in-progress colt who has only raced on grass and Tapeta, and it's true that he's been erratic and not fully focused through the lane while motoring past comparatively slower horses at Turfway all winter.

Yet Final Gambit has a visually appealing turn of foot that seems to materialize out of nowhere, and at a starting price that figures to drift north of his 30-1 morning-line ranking, it's tempting to take the gamble that 10 furlongs just might be his sweet spot, especially if you believe the Derby pace projects to be unsustainable.

12) COAL BATTLE (c, Coal Front–Wolfblade, by Midshipman). O-Norman Stables LLC; B-Hume Wornall & Jay Adcock (KY); T-Lonnie Briley. Sales history: $70,000 Ylg '23 TTAYRL. Lifetime record: GSW, 8-5-0-1, $1,188,875. Last start: 3rd Mar. 29 GI Arkansas Derby.

Sometimes consistency trumps sensationalism, and that about pinpoints the upside for Coal Battle, a $70,000 TTAYRL colt by Coal Front who won four stakes in succession earlier this campaign (Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs, Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington, plus the Smarty Jones Stakes and the Rebel Stakes, both at Oaklawn).

Coal Battle then turned in a premature middle move in the Arkansas Derby that he couldn't sustain beyond a third-place finish.

Trainer Lonnie Briley pointed to Coal Battle being uncharacteristically agitated and wound up prior to the Arkansas Derby, and the veteran conditioner blamed himself for not getting four (instead of three) works into this colt prior to that final prep.

Coal Battle has scored on the front end and from farther back, over four different dirt tracks, and has also won twice over wet surfaces, so he doesn't come off as a one-dimensional colt who requires things his own way, pace- or surface-wise.

American Promise Tuesday morning | Stephen Ibanez/Coady Media

13) AMERICAN PROMISE (c, Justify–Tapella, by Tapit). O-BC Stables LLC; B-Candy Meadows LLC (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Sales history: $750,000 Ylg '23 KEESEP. Lifetime record: SW, 9-2-1-1, $444,874. Last start: WON Mar. 15 Virginia Derby.

This $750,000 KEESEP colt by Justify is a May 1 foal who has been described by trainer D. Wayne Lukas as “just growing into his frame.”

After nine starts on roughly a once-a-month basis since last July, he'll go in the Kentucky Derby off a seven-week break coming off his win in the Virginia Derby.

Will that extra time between starts yield a big difference in this still-developing colt's career arc?

He earned a 95 Beyer in both his lone stakes win Mar. 15 at Colonial (over a one-turn configuration for nine-furlongs) and in his muddy, 1 1/16-miles maiden win Dec. 29 at Oaklawn.

But American Promise failed to hit the board in two graded stakes routes in between, and he has never finished ahead of any sophomore contenders of consequence.

Still, American Promise is a speed threat who does not require seizing the lead to win, which is a tactical plus.

And he has his 89-year-old trainer's Hall-of-Fame mojo going for him, which includes saddling four previous Derby champs: Winning Colors (1988), Thunder Gulch (1995), Grindstone (1996) and Charismatic (1999).

14) GRANDE (c, Curlin–Journey Home, by War Front). O-Repole Stable; B-KatieRich Farms (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $300,000 Ylg '23 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GSP, 3-2-1-0, $228,200. Last start: 2nd Apr. 5 GII Wood Memorial Stakes.

After saddling the beaten favorite in the Derby in 2024 and having to scratch the Derby favorite on the morning of the race in 2023, this year trainer Todd Pletcher will send out the lower-profile Grande, a $300,000 KEESEP colt who has two wins from three lifetime starts.

Grande won a one-turn-mile maiden and a nine-furlong allowance, both at Gulfstream, then secured Derby qualifying points with a promising runner-up effort behind Rodriguez in the Wood Memorial.

That try was notable for Grande being hooked wide on both turns while closing against the grain of a speed-favoring Aqueduct surface.

Grande will reunite with John Velazquez, who was in the saddle for his first two lifetime victories.

Since 1900, 29 horses have started in the Derby with exactly three lifetime starts. Only four have won: Regret in 1915, Big Brown in 2008, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. Of the remaining 25 also-rans, only one finished better than seventh: Grande's sire, Curlin, who was third in 2007.

15) CHUNK OF GOLD (c, Preservationist–Play for Gold, by Cairo Prince). O-Terry L. Stephens; B-Brereton C. Jones (KY); T-Ethan W. West. Sales history: $2,500 Ylg '23 FTKOCT. Lifetime record: GSP, 4-1-3-0, $348,818. Last start: 2nd, Mar. 22 GII Louisiana Derby.

Chunk of Gold (Preservationist), a May 11 foal who hammered for the bargain price of $2,500 as a FTKOCT yearling, is ranked here as the 15th-likeliest win candidate. But his off-the-tailgate style makes it quite likely he'll be passing horses late in the lane, putting this gray in play as a long-shot candidate for minor awards in exotics.

This Ethan West trainee ran second in both he the nine-furlong GII Risen Star Stakes and the 1 3/16-miles GII Louisiana Derby, pairing 92 Beyers in each of those efforts.

Yet he still has never won beyond six furlongs or on the dirt, with his only lifetime win occurring at 13-1 odds back in December over Tapeta at Turfway.

16) FLYING MOHAWK (c, Karakontie (Jpn)–Bonbons Fleur, by Twirling Candy). O-Two Eight Racing, Berry Family Racing LLC and Kaleta Racing; B-John O'Meara (KY); T-D. Whitworth Beckman. Sales history: $25,000 Wlg '22 KEENOV; $72,000 Ylg '23 KEESEP. Lifetime record: GSP, 6-2-2-0, $295,800. Last start: 2nd Mar. 22 Jeff Ruby Steaks Stakes.

Flying Mohawk (Karakontie {Jpn}) is the lone Derby entrant with a published equipment change. Trainer Whit Beckman will remove blinkers after this colt rallied late despite trouble at the break to gain second behind winner Final Gambit in the Jeff Ruby.

Like the winner of that Turfway stakes, Flying Mohawk has never attempted a race on dirt.

This colt ($25,000 KEENOV, $72,000 KEESEP) took four grass starts to break his maiden while racing in New York and Kentucky last year.

Then, off a three-month layoff, he took down a first-level turf allowance at Fair Grounds before his second-place try over Tapeta.

17) PUBLISHER (c, American Pharoah–Indian Pride, by Proud Citizen). O-Gus King and Estate of Brereton C. Jones; B-Brereton C. Jones (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales history: $600,000 Ylg '23 FTSAUG. Lifetime record GSP, 7-0-2-3, $407,756. Last start: 2nd Mar. 29 GI Arkansas Derby.

Steve Asmussen has a well-publicized 0-for-26 record in the Derby. But he runs a large outfit with a sophomore program geared toward earning Derby qualifying points, so a lot of the rank outsiders he's lost with over the years were in the “let's just take a shot” category.

Publisher, a $600,000 FTSAUG colt by American Pharoah who is still a maiden after seven starts, is most definitely among that group.

Publisher ran seventh, fourth and second in Oaklawn's series of graded stakes preps.

His 95-Beyer second when chasing Sandman home in the Arkansas Derby might have signaled a turnaround that was achieved with Asmussen adding blinkers for the first time.

Irad Ortiz, Jr. will also be getting aboard for the first time. Publisher's running style suggests he will be passing horses late.

Buchanan (1884), Sir Barton (1919) and Brokers Tip (1933) are the only maidens to win the

Kentucky Derby. Dating to 1937 (when more precise records started being kept), maidens in the Derby are 0-for-12, with the best finish among them an eighth.

Render Judgment | Renee Torbit/Coady Media

18) RENDER JUDGMENT (c, Blame–Barbara Gordon, by Commissioner). O-Baccari Racing Stable LLC, Dream Walkin Farms, Inc., MJM Racing, Rocket Ship Racing and Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek); B-Green Lantern Stables (KY); T-Kenneth McPeek. Sales history: $310,000 Ylg '23 FTKJUL. Lifetime record: SP, 7-1-2-1, $250,672., Last start: 5th Apr. 8 GI Blue Grass Stakes.

Render Judgment (Blame) hasn't won a race since breaking his maiden six months ago, but that lone victory was a two-turn race over the Churchill dirt.

Since then he's finished fifth, third, eighth, second and fifth in points-awarding Derby preps at Churchill, Fair Grounds (twice), Colonial and Keeneland.

Trainer Kenny McPeek won the Derby last year with Mystik Dan, but this $310,000 FTKJUL colt has been slower to establish himself.

Render Judgment appears most effective as a stalker, but his lifetime-best Beyer tops out at 90.

19) ADMIRE DAYTONA (JPN) (c, Drefong–Ice Pastel, by Shackleford). O-Junko Kondo; B-Northern Racing (JPN); T-Yukihiro Kato. Sales history: ¥66,000,000 Wlg '22 JRHAJUL. Lifetime record: GSW, 6-2-2-0, $672,047. Last start: WON Apr. 5 G2 UAE Derby.

Admire Daytona (Jpn), a son of 2016 champion American sprinter Drefong, was pressured by multiple challengers on the front end, lost the lead in a three-way stretch battle, then regained it in the final jump to prevail by a nose in the UAE Derby.

Trainer Yukihiro Kato will now ask this ¥66-million JRHAJUL weanling to break the 0-for-14 Dubai/Kentucky Derby double that has stood since the UAE Derby's inception.

Part of the difficulty this year for Admire Daytona will be having to get acclimated to another new country. He has endured two global shipping experiences this spring after making his first five starts in Tokyo.

Similar to the circumstances mentioned in Luxor Café's write-up, world-class jockey Christophe Lemaire will also be without a mount the entirety of Derby day, so he will have no opportunity to scope out the surface or get a feel for it until the horses hit the track for the post parade.

20) OWEN ALMIGHTY (c, Speightstown–Tempers Rising, by Bayern). O-Flying Dutchmen Breeding and Racing LLC; B-Mark Stanley (KY); T-Brian A. Lynch. Sales history: $360,000 Wlg '22 KEENOV; $350,000 Ylg '23 FTSAUG. Lifetime record GSW, 7-3-2-0, $499,935. Last start: 6th (DH), Apr. 8 GI Blue Grass Stakes.

Back in March, even before Owen Almighty ($360,000 KEENOV, $350,000 FTSAUG) wired the GIII Tampa Bay Derby in the second-fastest edition of that stakes in 44 years, trainer Brian Lynch was on record as saying that the spring goal for this son of 2004 champion sprinter Speightstown would be the GII Pat Day Mile, a one-turn stakes on the Derby undercard.

But the colt's owner, Flying Dutchmen Breeding and Racing, wanted to accrue more two-turn experience and race in the Derby. So Lynch relented and re-routed this compact, hard-trying speed threat to Keeneland's Apr. 8 Blue Grass Stakes, in which Owen Almighty dead-heated for last after prompting the pace and briefly leading in upper stretch.

After the race, Lynch again publicly declared that the Pat Day Mile was the target.

But by Apr. 16, he again bent to the wishes of the owner, so it was on to Louisville for Owen Almighty.

This wasn't the first, nor will it be the last, time a trainer makes a judgment call only to be overruled by owners brimming with Derby fever.

But even though Owen Almighty has very capably punched above his weight in shorter races, it's awfully tough to give any Derby entrant serious consideration at 10 furlongs when a reputable conditioner keeps indicating that a race at that class level and distance is probably beyond what the colt wants to do or is capable of doing.

Neoequos Tuesday morning | Stephen Ibanez/Coady Media

21) NEOEQUOS (c, Neolithic–Bold Birdie, by Birdstone). O-C2 Racing Stable LLC, Parsard, Ian, Shining Stables LLC, Stefania Farms LLC, Reimer, Ken T., Braverman, Paul, and Pinch, Timothy; B-Helen Barbazon, Joseph Barbazon & Matalona Thoroughbreds, LLC (FL); T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales history: $22,000 Ylg '23 OBSOCT. Lifetime record: 7-2-2-2, $291,050. Last start: 3rd Mar. 29 GI Florida Derby.

Neoequos ran third in both the Fountain of Youth Stakes and the Florida Derby after two wins and two seconds sprinting in races restricted to Florida-bred or -sired horses.

This son of Neolithic ($22,000 OBSOCT) is adept at getting out of the gate quickly, a skill that Flavien Prat, his new rider, will have to deploy from post position two.

Prat is also named on the also-eligible Baeza and would likely opt for that mount should Baeza draw into the Derby.

The post TDN Kentucky Derby Preview: And the Winner Is… appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

View the full article