Guineas Weekend Preview: Ruling Court The New “Now” Horse?

[Wandering Eyes]

It was the perceived wisdom of 2024 that the 2-year-old fillies were a level above the colts and as Newmarket's two mile Classics loom this weekend, we get a first measurement of whether that has carried over. On the face of it, the line-ups for the Betfred-sponsored 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas suggest that the fillies' monument is the one most anticipated among Suffolk's hardcore. There's a good old Godolphin-Ballydoyle stand-off between two unbeaten peer leaders and TDN Rising Stars in Desert Flower and Lake Victoria to come on Sunday and while it may be sacrilege to say this, the colts' equivalent for once feels like we're dealing with Best Supporting Actor honours.

That sentiment may partly be to do with the disappointment of losing Ballydoyle's buzz horse of the Spring, Twain, and it's always possible that the 2,000 will host a transformative shift. We have the leader of the juvenile colts' Classification, which should be a pre-requisite for an up-to-scratch Guineas, but William Buick isn't even riding him, so what does that say?

Godolphin's generation leader Shadow Of Light is the colt in question and while he completed the not inconsequential Middle Park-Dewhurst double, his mark of 120 is only a respectable one for a champion colt. At least the son of Lope De Vega has proven adept at handling this track, twice, but he had easy ground when accounting for Whistlejacket in the Middle Park and when upstaging the raw Expanded in the Dewhurst and he won't have that here. The upside is that the faster turf here may negate his obvious stamina limitations, but still it's not the greatest vote of confidence that Buick has opted for the race's big market mover Ruling Court.

Where Shadow Of Light has been through the standard European tests, his stablemate Ruling Court has had an eclectic 2,000 Guineas preparation to say the least. A son of Justify (who don't forget 12 months ago was all but certain to have his first Guineas winner) with a lot of upside, the Arqana May Breeze-Up-topping TDN Rising Star was readily brushed aside by another sadly absent Rosegreen standard-bearer in The Lion In Winter at York, went totally missing and then reappeared with a bang in the desert in the Jumeirah 2000 Guineas.

At this time of year and in this race, it often pays to follow the money and what we've been seeing in the betting probably reflects what they've been seeing since his return to town. Don't say you weren't warned.

Is All That Glitters Gold?

On the eye and on the clock, the 2,000 Guineas winner elect is undoubtedly Juddmonte's Field Of Gold, but is it that cut-and-dried? The son of Kingman has emerged from a family which specialises in its bountiful supply of class Thoroughbreds and unsurprisingly it took the transition from two to three for him to blossom, but you have to go back to 2004 for the last impressive winner of the Craven to follow suit here.

What was clear from that course-and-distance trial is that the Gosdens' grey is a generous giver, as many of the sire's progeny tend to be, so perhaps the only doubt is whether this colt that sits above the rest can provide again in what is a quick turnaround. Interestingly, it was Kingman himself who seemed poised for glory here after his Greenham domination only to throw it away to a horse he had annihilated in his trial.

Irish Posers…

Interestingly, Aidan O'Brien has opted for just one contender in each of the Classics this weekend, despite having several leading hopes and while Expanded was always the understudy to Twain, it is through circumstance that he alone flies the Wootton Bassett flag here. Fast-tracked to this having been steered towards the Tetrarch-Irish Guineas all Spring, it's a case of deja vu for the exciting colt after he was made to deputise for The Lion In Winter in the Dewhurst in October, just days after his debut.

Given the setback to the operation's number one (and possibly number two), the decision not to pitch Henri Matisse into the race is intriguing given his obvious form credentials. He is closely tied in with Scorthy Champ on the form of The Curragh's great staging post, the G1 Vincent O'Brien National Stakes, while another from the establishment in Camille Pissarro had Field Of Gold behind in the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere but is also not here, so what does it all mean?

Maybe it is simply a case of Expanded having been on the right work schedule for this, as the Tetrarch falls on Monday. Or maybe he is above that pair of fellow sons of Wootton Bassett. Did Ballydoyle really put all their eggs in one basket with Twain? One thing is for sure, Expanded's initial main target is three weeks away, so if he wins this he is some animal.

Ireland's challenge is completed by the likeable Scorthy Champ, who represents the formidable Mehmas and is still relatively unexposed, and another Wootton Bassett in Green Impact. The latter is probably more of a middle-distance prospect, as suggested in his defeat of Delacroix in Leopardstown's old Golden Fleece, the G2 Champions Juvenile Stakes, so a positive showing could see the inevitable early shifts in the Derby market.

Ready, Willing And Able…

This Spring, Lake Victoria had looked a doubtful runner for the 1,000 Guineas with O'Brien keen to avoid nudging the daughter of Frankel awake too soon. When discussing the ground-breaking filly at his initial Press Day, the master of Ballydoyle also hinted that when prompted she is all action and, voila, here she is. One of racing's true givers, her trademark will-to-conquer will carry her far in this showdown with her Godolphin counterpart even if lack of sharpness betrays her. As with Expanded, the stable have removed all back-up which can be read as either a vote of confidence in the sole runner or a case of the increased prioritisation of the ParisLongchamp Classics. Time will tell.

Luckily for the purists, Lake Victoria isn't entirely front and centre as Desert Flower's sensational Fillies' Mile performance over this course and distance marks her out as similarly elite. This is set up to be an epic and could be up there with the 2003 renewal, where Russian Rhythm, Six Perfections, Intercontinental and Soviet Song all faced off. Charlie Appleby has his best chance yet of landing this Classic with the daughter of Night Of Thunder, but she is one who will undoubtedly stay further and it could simply be a case of who is the quickest of the pair on this surface.

Red Letter Day?

Ireland's thinking man's trainer Ger Lyons has long promised to seize an English Classic, but it's safe to say that he's been admirably circumspect in his approach to the task so far. With that in mind, it could be a clear signal that he is willing to finally let fly with the race's other fascinating Frankel in Juddmonte's TDN Rising Star Red Letter. She should really have beaten Lake Victoria on debut when showing devastating acceleration and is way, way better than her fourth behind that rival again in the G1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. Make no mistake, this is a serious filly and her presence in such a hot renewal, when perhaps the more expected option would have been the Curragh equivalent later this month, says a lot.

Another trainer with Classic ambitions sure to be realised at some point is Archie Watson, whose flying filly Duty First produced an undoubtedly high-class performance to win Newbury's G3 Fred Darling Stakes. A daughter of speed influence Showcasing, she faces the age-old stamina poser even if ability is not a question, while Ollie Sangster is another young handler seeking an audacious breakthrough moment.

Daring to have a pair of runners in the proven Simmering and Flight, he'll need the daughters of Too Darn Hot and Siyouni to take a step up and for the main protagonists to run short of their peak, but hey, it's early May and in the last seven renewals of this there have been winners at 66-1, 14-1, 16-1 and 28-1. This is NOT a race for favourites. Minding was the last one to collect, nine years ago.

New Day, New Bays…

Also on Newmarket's Sunday card is the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes, where Shadwell's TDN Rising Star Falakeyah begins a possible Oaks odyssey. The way the daughter of New Bay and relative of Baaeed and Hukum went through her debut at Wolverhampton in November, she belongs in that discussion for now. That is the case for another New Bay, the wide-margin Doncaster maiden winner Janey Mackers who belongs to the David Menuisier stable. Cue lots of welcome banter from the French-born  Pulborough-based raconteur.

Elmalka Returns…

While form figures of 444 aren't what you expect to follow success in the 1,000 Guineas, particularly when it comes to such an unexposed and elite-bred one as Elmalka, here we are again at the start of a new campaign with the slate clean. Did the daughter of Kingman simply luck out when leading home Porta Fortuna, Ramatuelle and Tamfana on this card 12 months ago? It's time to find out, beginning with this G2 Dahlia Stakes, and her pedigree suggests she has more to give. Seventh in that Classic, Cinderella's Dream comes back to the Heath a different filly having indeed gone to the ball on several occasions in the USA.

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