TDN Belmont Stakes Preview: Showdown at the Spa

[Wandering Eyes]

The field for the GI Belmont Stakes, ranked in “likeliest winner” order.

1) JOURNALISM (c, Curlin–Mopotism, by Uncle Mo) O-Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Robert LaPenta, Elayne Stables 5 LLC, Mrs John Magnier, Michael Tabor & Derrick Smith; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Michael W. McCarthy. Sales history: $825,000 Ylg '23 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 7-5-1-1, $2,838,880. Last start: WON May 17 GI Preakness Stakes.

For most handicappers, the decision to bet on or against Journalism will come down to whether you think he's still riding an upward arc after three demanding Grade I races that yielded wins in the Santa Anita Derby and Preakness Stakes, plus a near-miss second in the Kentucky Derby.

But it's also reasonable to speculate whether those exerting efforts within a span of six weeks will make their toll evident in the third jewel of the Triple Crown, even after an additional three weeks of rest.

So which is it, still-evolving and dangerous or vulnerable as the 8-5 morning-line fave?

The bet here is that Journalism will be up to the task, and that on Saturday we will see a tough, rugged colt thriving under a steady workload at the highest level of the sport.

Momentum is the crux of the argument surrounding Journalism, who enters the 10-furlong Belmont-at-Saratoga after having left no doubts about his ability to fight for position and muscle his way out of tight spots.

As if that wasn't enough, the out-of-nowhere burst of acceleration this Michael McCarthy trainee uncorked in the final 100 yards of the Preakness–when he looked too far back to win–added another dimension to Journalism's well-developed skill set.

But jockey Umberto Rispoli will need to call upon every bit of tactical torque that this $825,000 FTSAUG colt by Curlin can muster if they are to win the Belmont Stakes, which stacks up as the most difficult field Journalism has ever encountered.

In the Santa Anita Derby, Journalism secured the rail, eased into fifth, ranged to within two lengths of dueling pacemakers, then got trapped on the fence on the far turn, with Rispoli needing to shoulder aside a rival before running hard through the lane to win by three-quarters of a length.

In the Kentucky Derby, Journalism was unfazed by minor crowding at the break, asserted himself inside, edged to the three path six furlongs out, then picked off most of the field before throttling into a higher drive 3 1/2 furlongs from the finish.

Five wide off the turn, he snatched he lead a furlong and a half out, then was immediately accosted by Sovereignty (Into Mischief). Journalism stayed on well under urging, outrun by 1 1/2 lengths behind a talented winner who executed a better-timed move.

By now the entire racing world has witnessed the smash-and-grab stretch run of the Preakness, which saw Journalism burst through a barely clearable hole amid rock 'em, sock 'em bumping.

Even though the post-Preakness focus has been on Journalism overcoming the rowdy stretch run, the most telling takeaway might be Rispoli admitting post-win that he had a difficult time getting his colt interested down the backstretch and around the far turn, and that he “just didn't have the horse” at the quarter pole.

Journalism did his best running in the final furlong and a half, when it counted. But he's going to have to mentally engage much earlier in the Belmont Stakes, which will feature faster and stronger waves of challengers.

2) SOVEREIGNTY (c, Into Mischief-Crowned, by Bernardini) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-William I. Mott; Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-2-0, $3,672,800. Last start: WON May 3 GI Kentucky Derby.

Sovereignty prevailed in the Derby after a minor shuffle at the start, settling fourth from last while in the clear and enjoying as clean a trip as was possible over the sealed/sloppy Churchill surface.

This Into Mischief-sired homebred for Godolphin worked his way up outside, aggressively shadowed Journalism's far-turn move while five deep, then angled to the seven path for the drive with dead aim on that favorite.

Sovereignty ranged up on even terms with Journalism three-sixteenths out, and when Journalism dug in and responded, that challenge emboldened Sovereignty, who levelled off with purposeful, powerful strides, relishing both the mud and being roused for full run.

Trainer Bill Mott said post-win that Sovereignty emerged from the Derby with a small pastern scrape, most likely inflicted by a rival when leaving the gate. But the primary decision for opting out of the Preakness had more to do with wanting this colt to be fully dialed in for the Belmont Stakes, with a five-week cushion between starts.

Mott's win percentage at all levels over the past five years is 16% from 3,142 starts. With horses racing back from layoffs between 33 and 37 days, he's won at a 15% clip from 391 starters.

He's made 31 Grade I starts with layoffs of that span over the past five years, winning with seven (23%).

The most recent was Sovereignty himself, who won the Kentucky Derby 35 days after running second in the GI Florida Derby.

There's no way of knowing if Sovereignty's 12-point Beyer Speed Figure jump between late March and early May was attributable to significant, next-level development or if he simply relished a wet track under favorable Derby pace circumstances. Maybe a bit of both.

But make no mistake: This colt can reliably be counted upon to uncoil with a long, sustained, well-focused run.

Sovereignty has honed a commanding, visually appealing way of taking control of his stretch drives, exhibiting a touch of gravitas first evident in October of his juvenile season when he ran up the score against a very good field in the 1 1/16-miles GIII Street Sense Stakes.

Sovereignty | Sarah Andrew

3) BAEZA (c, McKinzie-Puca, by Big Brown) O-C R K Stable LLC and Grandview Equine; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-John A. Shirreffs. Sales history: $1,200,000 Ylg '23 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISP 5-2-1, $648,500. Last start: 3rd May 3 GI Kentucky Derby.

Baeza, who has yet to win beyond the maiden ranks, figured to be the “wiseguy” play in the Belmont Stakes from the moment he crossed the finish wire third in the Derby. He was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths by Sovereignty and Journalism, and was finishing with a flourish despite breaking from the far outside 19 post after having drawn into the race as an also-eligible.

This $1.2-million KEESEP colt by McKinzie was agitated in the walk-up and in the Churchill Downs paddock, but by no means did he come completely unraveled despite the huge crowd and chaotic surroundings.

Baeza was parked widest first time through the lane and cornered outside onto the backstretch. He was on the move trying to follow mid-race advances of Journalism and Sovereignty, but rather than chasing them out wide, Flavien Prat opted for the three path, which saved real estate but necessitated having to deal with far-turn hemming and bumping before Baeza cut loose with a five-wide swoop into the stretch.

Under left-handed urging, Baeza floated out a rival to claim the path he wanted, then locked into a determined drive for the final furlong as the only runner gaining ground on the Derby's top two. He galloped out on even terms with Sovereignty and Journalism.

In his previous race, the Santa Anita Derby, Baeza stalked outside, got first run at the pacemaker, then led between the three-sixteenths and sixteenth poles before losing focus for a few strides in deep stretch and getting collared by the more-seasoned Journalism. Reportedly, Baeza lost his right front shoe at some point in that race.

Baeza draws inevitable comparisons to his two older half-brothers, the 2023 Kentucky Derby champ Mage and the 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. As a May 13 foal, it's no surprise Baeza is poised to bloom a bit later than his siblings, especially considering trainer John Shirreffs is known for a patient, pragmatic approach.

As an imposing stalker who's just now figuring out the timing of his moves, Baeza is capable of blowing the Belmont Stakes wide open if he can make an aggressive first run at the pacemaker that affords him a few lengths of separation before the closers get rolling.

4) RODRIGUEZ (c, Authentic-Cayala, by Cherokee Run) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Tom J. Ryan, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Catherine Donovan; B-Kingswood Farm & David Egan (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $485,000 Ylg KEESEP '23. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-2-1, $522,800. Last start: WON Apr. 5 GII Wood Memorial Stakes.

Like Baeza above, Rodriguez, a May 20 foal, also hasn't come close to peaking yet at this stage of his career.

This 'TDN Rising Star' by Authentic is coming off a breakout-race wiring of the GII Wood Memorial Stakes in which trainer Bob Baffert removed blinkers and added jockey Mike Smith.

The result was the fastest nine-furlong clocking in any points-awarding Derby prep stakes since 2022, and the second time in his five-race career that Rodriguez has broken the triple-digit Beyer barrier (100 in his Jan. 4 maiden win and 101 in the Apr. 5 Wood).

Baffert and Smith believe that taking the blinkers off this $485,000 KEESEP colt allows him to be a more comfortable free-runner because he can better see what's around him.

A caveat from Wood Memorial day is that early speed was the prevailing winning profile at Aqueduct that afternoon: six of 13 main-track races were won wire to wire, plus four by forwardly placed horses who either dueled or forced the fractions.

Rodriguez drew post four, but had to scratch from the Kentucky Derby because of a foot bruise. The issue was minor, but lingered long enough to derail aspirations of running in the Preakness.

Having drawn post three for the Belmont Stakes with the only other projected speed of the race in gate five, the pace should be Smith's to control. Baffert has repeatedly said in the lead-up to the Belmont Stakes that Rodriguez will come out running.

Although flashes of brilliance have been there during his West Coast campaign, Rodriguez finished 11 3/4 lengths behind Journalism the only time they met back in March, and he has yet to put together back-to-back efforts that prove he belongs at the top of the crop.

But he does have upside at 6-1 on the morning line: A bet on this front-running colt is essentially a gamble that you believe previous efforts to try and rate Rodriguez can be safely discounted, and that, like his speed-centric, later-to-mature champion sire, his best races will be in the back half of his sophomore season.

5) HILL ROAD, (c, 3, Quality Road-Exotic Notion (Arg), by Lemon Drop Kid) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Amo Racing USA; B-Lynch Bages LTD & Camas Park Stud (KY); T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '23 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-0-2, $336,496. Last start: WON May 10 GIII Peter Pan Stakes.

Hill Road campaigned in Ireland as a juvenile, winning his debut in 'TDN Rising Star' fashion and finishing seventh in a Group 1 stakes before shipping to Del Mar and running a surprise third at 61-1 odds in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

This $350,000 KEESEP colt by Quality Road was later transferred from trainer Adrian Murray to Chad Brown. Hill Road was a best-of-the-rest third (84 Beyer) in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby, then spiked a fever that kept him out of further Kentucky Derby prep action.

Hill Road resurfaced with a well-timed, off-the-pace winning move into a softened-up speed duel to take the GIII Peter Pan Stakes (94 Beyer) May 10 at Aqueduct, scoring by three-quarters of a length and finishing up under a hand ride despite not switching leads.

Irad Ortiz, Jr. picks up the 10-1 mount from Flavien Prat, who has opted to retain the ride aboard Baeza.

6) CRUDO (c, Justify-Blossomed, by Deputy Minister) O-Bobby Flay and James Ventura; B-Orpendale/Chelston/Wynatt (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $350,000 Wlg '22 KEENOV; $520,000 RNA Ylg '23 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-0-0, $130,148. Last start: WON May 17 Sir Barton Stakes.

Crudo is talented but lightly raced, falling into the “taking a shot” category for the Belmont Stakes.

After leading late but capitulating to fourth as the 9-10 favorite in his Gulfstream six-furlong  debut Feb. 8, this Todd Pletcher trainee wired a seven-eighths MSW field by 7 1/4 lengths as the .44-1 fave at Keeneland Apr. 19.

Crudo then aimed for the Sir Barton Stakes on the Preakness undercard, and romped home by 7 1/2 lengths at 7-2 odds going 1 1/16 miles, leading at every call.

Crudo's Beyer Speed Figure pattern is 68-82-84. There is no published par figure for the 10-furlongs-at-Saratoga version of the Belmont Stakes, but half the field this year has already at least once topped 100.

As co-owner Jimmy Ventura quipped to TDN earlier in the week, “The good news is that Crudo can't read the numbers.”

John Velazquez has been aboard for all three of Crudo's starts and will ride again on Saturday. Post five gives him the option of pressuring likely leader Rodriguez from the outside.

Crudo | Sarah Andrew

7) HEART OF HONOR (GB) (c, Honor A. P.-Ruby Love (Chi), by Scat Daddy) O-Jim & Claire Ltd; B-David Redvers Bloodstock (GB); T-Jamie Osborne. Sales history: 35,000gns Wlg '22 TATNOV; €42,000 Ylg '23 GOFSEP; €160,000 2yo '24 ARQMAY. Lifetime Record: GSP, 7-2-4-0, $400,919. Last start: 5th May 17 GI Preakness Stakes.

Prior to shipping over for the Preakness, trainer Jamie Osborne indicated that Heart of Honor (GB) would likely remain stateside to also target the Belmont Stakes, simply because there are no major dirt races in Europe or the Middle East for this colt at this point in the season.

So if you view the Preakness as a tune-up try, it's reasonable to expect improvement from this son of Honor A.P.

On May 17 at Pimlico, Heart of Honor was fractious at the gate, broke slowly, raced in last for most of the 1 3/16-miles trip, then swung wide for the drive to pick off tiring horses.

The Preakness was also 23-year-old jockey Saffie Osborne's first ride in the United States. She is not booked on any Saratoga mounts leading up to the Belmont Stakes.

Heart of Honor won two one-mile dirt allowance races at Meydan Race Course earlier this year after debuting with a second-place finish in England at Southwell on an all-weather surface.

He was then second in three Dubai stakes: the UAE 2,000 Guineas, the Al Bastakiya Stakes, and the G2 UAE Derby, in which Heart of Honor was beaten a nose by Admire Daytona (Jpn) (Drefong), who came out of that race to run last in the 19-horse Kentucky Derby.

Heart of Honor | Sarah Andrew

8) UNCAGED (c, Curlin-Dark Nile, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-WinStar Farm LLC and Repole Stable; B-WinStar Farm, LLC; T- Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $450,000 Ylg '23 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-0-0, $105,450. Last start: 6th May 10 GIII Peter Pan Stakes.

Uncaged has the distinction of being the only Belmont Stakes entrant to have already won a race at Saratoga. He prevailed by 1 3/4 lengths in his Aug. 3 debut last summer, a six-furlong sprint over a sealed/muddy surface at 5-1 odds.

In fact, if the weather comes up wet on Saturday, note that both of this son of Curlin's lifetime victories have come over muddy tracks. His other score was a one-turn mile allowance/optional claimer at Aqueduct in April, a race that has yet to yield a next-out winner.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has explained this $450,000 KEESEP colt's uninspiring sixth in the May 10 Peter Pan Stakes as an instance of Uncaged not being able to handle kickback he endured with a rail-running trip.

Luis Saez rides Uncaged for the first time in the Belmont Stakes.

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