Royal Ascot Two-Year-Olds Under The Spotlight

[Wandering Eyes]

The furore surrounding the changes to the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes shows no signs of abating, but for this year at least the six two-year-old races at Royal Ascot remain much as they've always been, which is beneficial for trends followers studying the data in an attempt to find winners next week.

We lost one of the so-called bankers when Albert Einstein, last seen winning the G3 Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh, was ruled out of the meeting due to a sprained joint, but his absence shouldn't detract too much from the top-class action in store for us. After all, the son of Wootton Bassett is just one of 13 two-year-olds who have earned 'TDN Rising Star' status with their performances on European racecourses in 2025, with many of the others set to be in action in the coming days.

Here, we have a spin through the key members of that group, whilst pinpointing the trainers and sires you need to bear in mind when it comes to compiling a shortlist of potential Royal Ascot-winning juveniles in 2025.

O'Brien Runners The Obvious Place to Start

If you're on the hunt for a Royal Ascot-winning two-year-old, then those trained by Aidan O'Brien is an obvious place to start. In the last 10 years alone, O'Brien is responsible for 16 winners in this division, from a total of 60 races, which essentially means that horses from Ballydoyle are winning one in every four.

O'Brien has been even more dominant than that in the Listed Chesham Stakes, having won five of the last 10 renewals, while the only juvenile contest he hasn't won in that time is the G2 Queen Mary Stakes. His remaining tally is made up of three wins in each of the G2 Coventry Stakes, G3 Albany Stakes and Windsor Castle, plus a pair of victories in the G2 Norfolk Stakes.

Typically, O'Brien has assembled a strong team of two-year-olds to go to war with next week, even in the absence of the highly-touted Albert Einstein. The stable is responsible for four other 'TDN Rising Stars', headed by Charles Darwin who, with a Timeform rating of 109p, is tied with Albert Einstein as the highest-rated two-year-old colt in training.

Charles Darwin hasn't looked back since being beaten on his debut at the Curragh, winning both of his subsequent starts at Navan and Naas, and he looks a leading contender to follow in the footsteps of Caravaggio (2016), Arizona (2019) and River Tiber (2023), O'Brien's three winners of the Coventry in the last decade. In total, O'Brien has won that Group 2 on 10 occasions.

O'Brien has four other colts entered in the Coventry, including another 'TDN Rising Star' in Curragh debut scorer Brussels (89p), plus fellow once-raced winners Gstaad (98p), Flushing Meadows (95p) and Warsaw (89p).

All but Gstaad, a Starspangledbanner half-brother to dual Group 1-winning juvenile Vandeek, are by Coolmore's sire sensation Wootton Bassett, who is also responsible for the other pair of 'TDN Rising Stars' from Ballydoyle, namely Italy (94P) and Simply Astounding (90p).

Italy appears an unlikely runner at Royal Ascot–he was missing from the Coventry entries and isn't qualified for the Chesham–but Simply Astounding is worth looking out for when the Albany entries are published on Saturday. A daughter of the seven-time Group 1 winner Minding, she clearly wasn't herself when following a striking debut win at Naas with a poor effort in the G3 Fillies Sprint Stakes over the same course and distance.

Whatever happens next week, the fact that Wootton Bassett has already produced four 'TDN Rising Stars' from his second Irish-bred crop is a rare achievement. Indeed, No Nay Never is the only sire to have previously matched that tally pre-Royal Ascot, back in 2022, when his juveniles included the Windsor Castle hero Little Big Bear–one of his 'TDN Rising Stars'–and Albany winner Meditate.

This year those two Coolmore powerhouses will be pitted against one another in the Coventry, with No Nay Never's Charles Darwin–a full-brother to Blackbeard–set to come up against Military Code (93p), the son of Wootton Bassett who is unbeaten in two starts for Charlie Appleby.

Breeze-up Buys On The March

Karl Burke has sent out more Royal Ascot-winning two-year-olds in the last decade than every other trainer bar O'Brien, with his five-strong tally putting him one ahead of Wesley Ward, who is set to be without a runner at the meeting this year for the first time since 2012.

In the last 10 years, Burke has registered solitary wins in the Albany, Chesham and Norfolk, while next week he will bid for a third success in the Queen Mary with 'TDN Rising Star' Zelaina (90P). The Wathnan Racing-owned filly, a £650,000 purchase at the Goffs UK Doncaster Breeze-up Sale, created an excellent impression when making a successful start to her career at Nottingham earlier this month, skipping clear in the closing stages to come home unchallenged by two and three-quarter lengths.

Burke was winning that Nottingham contest with a breeze-up graduate for the third consecutive year, having struck in 2023 with Beautiful Diamond, who was subsequently third in the Queen Mary, and last year with Wathnan's Leovanni, before she went on to win the same Royal Ascot Group 2. Burke and Wathnan also teamed up 12 months ago to win the Norfolk with Shareholder, who was an expensive breeze-up buy himself when fetching €460,000 at Arqana.

In total, nine Royal Ascot-winning juveniles in the last decade were offered at a breeze-up sale, including five of the last 10 winners of the Norfolk, with Shareholder being joined on that roll of honour by Prince Of Lir (£170,000 at Doncaster) in 2016, Shang Shang Shang ($200,000 at Ocala) in 2018, A'Ali (£135,000 at Doncaster) in 2019 and Perfect Power (£110,000 at Doncaster) in 2021.

This year, Burke and Wathnan could again team up in the Norfolk with Naval Light, a 360,000gns buy at the Tattersalls Craven Breeze-up Sale, who caught the eye in second when making his debut in a conditions race at Beverley last month.

Big-Name Sires and the Freshman Looking for a Breakthrough

Two of the most notable absentees from the Coventry entries are trained by Appleby at Moulton Paddocks, namely Treanmor (95P) and Maximized (93p), both of whom are also 'TDN Rising Stars'. Frankel's Treanmor, who cost Godolphin €2 million as a yearling, is more than likely Chesham-bound, while Maximized, a £720,000 purchase at the Doncaster Breeze-up Sale, seems set to miss the meeting altogether after his Woodcote victory at Epsom.

Despite the absence of Maximized, leading two-year-old sire Mehmas is still blessed with plenty of strength in depth in this division as he tries to tick off a surprising omission on his CV, having failed to come up with a Royal Ascot-winning juvenile since he himself finished second in the 2016 Coventry won by Caravaggio.

Zelaina looks to be the Tally-Ho Stud stallion's most obvious chance of making the breakthrough next week, while Appleby's Wise Approach (93p), another 'TDN Rising Star' following his debut victory at Ascot, is one to look out for wherever he goes, having so far been given entries in the Coventry and the Windsor Castle, with the possible runners for the Norfolk not released until Friday. In total, Mehmas is responsible for four Coventry contenders, with the others including the Listed National Stakes runner-up First Legion (91p) and Ayr debut winner Underwriter (84p).

Havana Grey is another well-established sire for whom a Royal Ascot-winning two-year-old has thus far proved elusive, but he too will have plenty of chances to right that wrong next week. As well as Naval Light, he is the sire of Resolute Racing's big-money buy Rogue Legend (105p), who is ranked behind only Albert Einstein and Charles Darwin among Timeform's highest-rated juveniles, following back-to-back wins at Cork and Tipperary. Yarmouth scorer Staya (91p) deserves a mention, too, ahead of her potential appearance in the Queen Mary for George Scott and KHK Racing.

That Yarmouth card also witnessed a 'TDN Rising Star' performance from Wathnan's Postmodern (91p), who is challenging both Charles Darwin and Military Code for Coventry favouritism with the majority of bookmakers. He is by Too Darn Hot, one of the leading first-season stallions of 2023 but still on the hunt for a breakthrough with his juvenile runners at this meeting.

As for the 2025 crop of freshman sires, Starman has more than one good chance of opening his Royal Ascot account at the first opportunity, with Burke's Carlisle winner Venetian Sun (85p) likely to be joined in the Albany by the Joseph O'Brien-trained Green Sense (97p), who was last seen filling the runner-up spot in the Fillies Sprint Stakes won by Lady Iman (100p).

Incidentally, the unbeaten Lady Iman, also by Starman, is Timeform's highest-rated two-year-old filly in training, but trainer Ger Lyons has reported to her be an unlikely runner at Royal Ascot.

Space Blues is another first-season sire who has already come up with a black-type performer in Power Blue (103), runner-up to Albert Einstein in the Marble Hill. Beaten less than a length on that occasion, Power Blue looks potentially overpriced at 25/1 for the Coventry, where his potential rivals include St Mark's Basilica's first-crop son Rogue Supremacy (88p), a dominant debut winner at Wetherby.

US Sires Punching Above Their Weight

Another interesting angle at Royal Ascot in recent years has been the success of US-based sires with their two-year-old runners. All told, they have provided 10 of the 60 winners in that category in the last decade, consistently punching above their weight given the lesser representation they're always going to have compared to their European counterparts.

The much-missed Scat Daddy was responsible for four of those winners, identifying him as the joint-most successful stallion in the juvenile races at Royal Ascot in the last 10 years. He shares that title with the Tally-Ho stalwart Kodiac and another late Coolmore stallion in Zoffany, with the aforementioned No Nay Never best of the rest with three winners.

In a share of fifth with two winners is another US-based stallion in War Front, while Malibu Moon, Not This Time, Nyquist and Shanghai Bobby have all sired one Royal Ascot-winning juvenile apiece.

Interestingly, seven of those 10 victories for US sires were achieved in the races run over five furlongs, and yet, the progeny of all but Malibu Moon would be eligible to run in the new-look Windsor Castle from next year, when it will be restricted to juveniles whose sire won at least once over seven furlongs-plus at two, or a mile-plus at three and above.

That demonstrates the way these US sires seem able to produce fast and precocious juveniles, even when their own race record suggests they had more than a bit of staying power themselves.

As for this year, with no Wesley Ward runners, Lennilu could be the one to fly the American flag when she lines up in the Queen Mary, having earned her spot in the field with victory in last month's Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Gulfstream Park. A daughter of Leinster, she's following the same path to Ascot as Crimson Advocate, the daughter of Nyquist who won the Queen Mary two years ago.

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