TwinSpires.com Triple Crown Throwdown: Lecomte

[Wandering Eyes]

Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires.com takes on TDN’s Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets–highest bankroll after Arkansas Derby/Lexington day wins.

DeRosa: GIII LeComte S. – As defending champion of the Triple Crown Throwdown, I’m already feeling the pressure to repeat, and that pressure intensified when staring down a 14-horse field in the Lecomte S. to kick things off Saturday at Fair Grounds.

The field is so competitive that the morning-line favorite is 9-2, and while an $11 winner is always welcome, the field is so competitive (you’re going to hear that a lot about this race) that it’s impossible for me to take one of the public choices in either GII Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up Plus Que Parfait or splashy maiden winner War of Will (6-1 on the morning-line, but could go favored).

The Lecomte is the final leg of a $100,000 all-stakes Pick 4 (as well as the second leg of the late Pick 4 that ends with race 14), and from a wagering perspective, I’d like to be live to several horses, including speed threats #11 Tight Ten and #13 Manny Wah, but the combination of speed inside (e.g. #2 Malpais) and their outside posts has me looking elsewhere for my on top (i.e. Throwdown) selection.

Tackett is the play. The West Virginia-bred gelding has shown versatility pressing the pace on debut going six furlongs before winning both two-turn efforts–gate-to-wire in the maiden breaker and then just off the pace against winners (including next-out winner Owendale). This one will need to improve, but 6-1 is an OK price based on pace ratings indicating that he can sit close to a fast pace and still have some kick late. Selection: #3 Tackett (6-1).

Sherack – GIII LeComte S. – Between the wide-open, full field, week-out draw and potential for an off track, I must have changed my mind about this race a good four of five times already. I finally decided on Tight Ten, who looked like a good one in his first three career starts last term before concluding the year with an eventful ninth-place finish after hitting the rail around the first turn in the Juvenile.

Although green at times throughout the campaign (he also bounced into the rail in the Churchill stretch while running away to win impressively at first asking), the speedy Winchell homebred was very game in defeat in both the GII Saratoga Special and GIII Iroquois. He particularly battled on nicely in his two-turn debut in the latter, dueling throughout and surviving an early pace that really fell apart late.

While it’s fair to question how far he wants to go, Tight Ten has more than enough early zip to get himself into a good position on or near the lead here, is battle-tested and comes in fresh from the always loaded Asmussen barn. That’s more than enough for me, especially if he’s near his morning-line quote of 8-1. Selection: #11 Tight Ten (8-1).

DiDonato – GIII LeComte S. – There’s some chance Hog Creek Hustle won’t love this two-turn trip (his half-brother Majestic Dunhill {Majesticperfection} is a late-running sprinter), but I think he might just be the most talented runner of the bunch and will give him one more chance to stretch out. His late rally on debut caught the eye back in August, and his non-effort in the GIII Iroquois was simply too dull to be believed–I won’t take that as a sign that he can’t go long. His Churchill allowance tally over seven furlongs off the bench was particularly impressive as he really inhaled his competition while far out in the track, and it was further flattered when three who finished behind him came back to score. He missed the break in the Sugar Bowl and was probably going to find the six panels a bit sharp anyway–plus that pace came back slow on figures. Selection: #6 Hog Creek Hustle (12-1).

Click for Lecomte Ultimate PPs from Brisnet.com.

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