With Closers in Control of Division, Sophomore Crop’s Curious Lack of Early Speed Stands Out

[Wandering Eyes]

The late-striding Journalism (Curlin) is developing a knack for snatching Grade I victories from the jaws of defeat, but he has yet to be able to solve the riddle known as Sovereignty (Into Mischief).

On Saturday at Monmouth Park, this athletic colt did his part to edge us closer to a possible Round 3 rematch of the top two finishers of the GI Kentucky Derby and GI Belmont Stakes.

But on Sunday, with Journalism shipping back to California, the colt's connections made no commitment either way about renewing their rivalry with Sovereignty in the Aug. 23 GI Travers Stakes at Saratoga.

Journalism didn't have to shoulder a rival out of the way like he did when winning the GI Santa Anita Derby, or burst through a barely clearable hole like when capturing the rock 'em, sock 'em stretch run of the GI Preakness Stakes (in which Sovereignty didn't participate).

But Journalism's GI Haskell Stakes score still had that increasingly familiar “Too much work to do-he'll never get there!” sense of deep-stretch foreboding.

Then, right on cue, the Houdini-like closer sparked to life and uncoiled with shadow-of-the-wire precision to win yet another big sophomore stakes by a less-than-a-length margin (101 Beyer Speed Figure).

Sovereignty is indeed aiming for the Travers, prepping this Saturday at the Spa in the GII Jim Dandy Stakes (entries drawn Wednesday).

Sovereignty beat Journalism on the square the two times they raced against each other, stamping his victories in the first and third legs of the Triple Crown as “best horse won” performances that left little doubt that the Bill Mott trainee has now twice executed better-timed and longer-sustained late moves over his hard-trying rival going 10 furlongs.

If he does return East, the Travers projects to be Journalism's last shot to try and dislodge Sovereignty from the top of the divisional totem pole before the 3-year-olds start to take on older horses.

But even if he doesn't, there is one key element about the sophomore crop as a whole that stands out: The entire campaign has been dominated by off-the-pace closers who rate from far back, and the absence of legitimate, front-running pacemakers who stay on under pressure is striking compared to historical norms.

Dating back to last December, when late-season 2-year-olds were first tasked with a nine-furlong graded stakes in high-level races, there have been 18 juvenile/sophomore stakes at that distance or longer on dirt or Tapeta. Eleven were “Road to the Kentucky Derby” qualifying races; three were the Triple Crown series, plus the Haskell, the GIII Ohio Derby, the GIII Peter Pan Stakes, and the $200,000 Bath House Row Stakes.

Of those 18 Triple Crown-caliber divisional stakes at 1 1/8 miles or longer, 11 (61%) were won by deep closers. Only two (11%) were won in wire-to-wire fashion. Two went to horses flashing early speed who pressed just behind the leaders. Stalkers accounted for the other three.

I don't have an exact number that tells what the long-term winning pace profile is for non-turf route races on this continent, but I am confident in guessing the figure is nowhere close to being titled toward tailgate types as the nearly 6:1 ratio of closers to wire-to-wire horses suggests.

And yes, admittedly, 18 races is a small sample. But the trend has persisted across the division for more than eight months now, and it stands out considering that strong early speed is a defining characteristic of North American breeding and racing.

And it wasn't as if those closers were launching mid-pack runs that picked off only a few stragglers. Eight of those 11 route stakes were won by horses who closed from either last or next-to-last positions. The number increases to nine if you also count Sovereignty's win in the Derby, in which he rallied from 17th in a 19-horse field.

At the opposite end of the scale, scrutinizing the four sophomore stakes at nine furlongs that were either wired or won by pace-pressing threats, two of them subsequently seem suspect because of possible speed biases and one might be chalked up to an odd course configuration.

'TDN Rising Star' Rodriguez (Authentic), for example, wired the field in the GII Wood Memorial on an afternoon when 10 of 13 main-track races at Aqueduct were won by horses racing on the front or just off it. Rodriguez next ran in the Belmont Stakes, where he assumed an easy lead but caved under far-turn pressure, finishing fourth behind Sovereignty and Journalism by 8 1/4 lengths.

In the Ohio Derby, Mo Plex (Complexity) sat second behind a wilting favorite and took control in deep stretch to win. But the 12 races at Thistledown that afternoon were slanted toward horses who flashed early speed, with that pace profile accounting for nine winners. Mo Plex is an expected entrant in Saturday's Jim Dandy.

The speed-centric victory by American Promise (Justify), who forced the pace from second in the Mar. 15 Virginia Derby, also has to be viewed in the context of being aberrational. Nine-furlong races are seldomly run on the main track at Colonial Downs, and they are conducted over a one-turn configuration that theoretically aids frontrunners. After his track-record win in Virginia, American Promise couldn't come close to replicating his winning form, finishing 16th in the Kentucky Derby and eighth in the Preakness.

That leaves us with a single wire-to-wire winner of a graded dirt stakes for the sophomore class of '25 who could still be a dangerous divisional contender in the second half of the season: Magnitude (Not This Time).

We don't often see 43-1 shots winning graded stakes by 9 ¾ lengths while earning a 108 Beyer number, but that's exactly what this Steve Asmussen trainee managed to uncork when wiring the

GII Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds back on Feb. 15.

Sent straight to the lead from post 12, Magnitude established a brisk early pace, drew away from the odds-on favorite when confronted mid-race, then braced for and shrugged off a fresh challenge from the second fave. He increased his margin while soaring home solo for a 1:48.85 clocking that equated to the fastest Risen Star in seven runnings since that stakes was elongated to nine furlongs in 2020.

Randy Moss of NBC-TV, who makes speed figures for the Beyer team and is also a co-host of the TDN's Writers' Room podcast, wrote on the X social media platform at the time that Magnitude's final clocking for the Risen Star “is likely the fastest” 1 1/8-mile win ever by any 3-year-old at Fair Grounds. (The lone exception Moss found was the 1:48 4/5 win by Clev Er Tell in the 1977 Louisiana Derby, which predates the modern era of timing races in hundredths of seconds.) Moss also noted that Magnitude's 108 rating “equals the highest Beyer ever for a sophomore at Fair Grounds.”

Three days after his gaudy win, Magnitude was removed from Triple Crown consideration to have surgery to fix an ankle chip. After recovering, Asmussen gave the colt a relatively easy first race back, and Magnitude ran up the score in the 1 1/16-miles July 5 Iowa Derby, leading at every call, prevailing by 9 1/4 lengths, and earning a 105 Beyer.

This past Saturday, Magnitude had his first published workout since that Prairie Meadows victory, breezing a :51.68 half-mile at Saratoga (35/42), where he is training up to the Travers.

Magnitude will bring a 4-for-8 lifetime mark into the Spa's “Midsummer Derby.” He's now 4-for-4 in races where he's either led throughout or hit the front by the midpoint call, and 0-for-4 in races where he hasn't.

Magnitude's running style will be no secret to the connections of Sovereignty and (if he runs) Journalism. But the two divisional leaders are likely the ones who'll be tasked with making the most significant tactical adjustments to try and win the Travers by reeling in a potentially unpressured pacemaker.

It hasn't been a defining characteristic of the current sophomore crop so far this season, but proven early speed never really goes out of style at any level of American racing.

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