A Small-Fee Sire With Big Potential

[Wandering Eyes]

With the commercial breeding sector being so selective and polarised at present, now more than ever Thoroughbred breeders have to take great care with their matings. With buyers less willing to take unnecessary risks, the formerly popular focus on unproven sires is seeming to thaw, with the pendulum swinging back in favour of more proven stallions.

Of course, the traditional issue for breeders that are involved at the lower end of the market is that “proven and affordable” tends to translate into “unfashionable” when it comes to selling the offspring of such sires. However, there is a sweet spot to be found in this segment of the market. They don’t work out every time, but focusing on stallions that showed enough promise with their early crops to attract increased support from breeders, thus having scope to improve their value and appeal when those stronger crops hit the track, can be a strategy that bears great reward for breeders.

The ultimate example of a sire with this profile of progression is Kodiac (GB). Having stood for €5,000 or less in his first four seasons, the promise of his first couple of crops saw him attract a much higher quantity and quality of mares, with his fee rising to between €6,500 and €7,500 in his next three seasons. When those bigger and better crops hit the track, he really began to fly, with many of those that had sent mares to him in those fifth, sixth and seventh years reaping great rewards. The story has only continued to get better since then, with his fee having risen relentlessly to its current level of €65,000.

It goes without saying that Kodiac is an exceptional example of just how well taking a chance on a young sire with the potential to progress in the years ahead can work out, and there have been plenty of other relevant examples. Indeed, back in 2015 when I first started writing for this publication I put forward two sires with similar profiles in Dandy Man (Ire) and Camacho (GB). While neither have taken off quite as dramatically as Kodiac, in the three years that have followed both subsequently sired Group 1 winners and have seen their nomination fees rise, with Dandy Man now standing at €12,500 from €8,000 in 2016 and Camacho now standing at €12,000 from €7,500 in 2016.

So, enough of what has come before: who is the next young sire that could potentially come alive in the coming years? There were a couple of candidates on the short list, but the one that stands out from the rest is Elzaam (Aus) (Ballyhane Stud).

A son of the leading Australian stallion Redoute’s Choice, he was bought for €280,000 as a yearling by Shadwell and was trained by Mick Jarvis and later Roger Varian. Beaten a nose in the G2 Coventry S. at Royal Ascot on just his second start, as a 3-year-old he won a listed race at Newbury by six lengths and finished close up behind the leaders in the G1 Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot and the G1 Haydock Sprint Cup.

Having retired to Ballyhane Stud at a fee of €4,000 in 2013, he attracted enough mares in his first year to produce 73 live foals. A quieter second season followed that resulted in just 39 live foals, but after a few of his first foals sold notably well, he had an upturn in his third season that resulted in 58 live foals. It was when those first crops started hitting the track that people really began to take notice of him.

For the sake of comparison, we run Kodiac’s numbers from the same stage of his career. As can be seen, Elzaam is slightly ahead of Kodiac’s equivalent curve at this stage of his career despite having a lower nomination fee in each of their first five years at stud.

It must also be said that as well as Elzaam’s numbers read, he has arguably been slightly unlucky in that a number of his most talented offspring such as London Icon (Ire), King Electric (Ire) and Vincy (Ire) have been sold to race in Hong Kong. As well as that, his most promising 2-year-old from last year, Playa Del Puente (Ire), has already been sold to Hong Kong-based connections and is likely to be shipped out there in the coming months.

Of course, there is nothing wrong with racing in Hong Kong, but purely from the point of view of advancing Elzaam’s reputation in this part of the world, he would have been better served by those horses staying put and winning big races domestically. That those horses were exported just as they were delivering on their promise has perhaps contributed to less appreciation for Elzaam’s achievements by the wider market as of yet, but the numbers don’t lie.

Thus, the case for Elzaam is a very clear one. His first three crops have statistically fared very well indeed given the lowly standard of mare he would have received at the very bottom of the nomination fee ladder. Since those initial crops have hit the track, Elzaam has received significantly bigger and higher-quality crops of mares. He has 98 2-year-olds to run for him this year, at least 112 yearlings on the ground and he covered 115 mares in 2018. Those that send mares to him this year will be selling the resulting yearlings in 2021, by which point all three of those big crops will have raced for at least a season. Thus, he will have great numerical opportunities to advance his standing by the time the 2021 yearling sales come around.

Elzaam stands for just €4,000 in 2019. That appeals as being the stand-out piece of value amongst affordable stallions anywhere in Great Britain or Ireland.

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