O’Sullivan: Ka Ying in class of his own

[Wandering Eyes]

Ka Ya Rising’s (NZ) (Shamexpress) first-up rating has him right where he needs to be for the upcoming Everest, says form guru Daniel O’Sullivan.

While his returning figure of 107 was a few points off his absolute best, it keeps him in a class of his own compared to the rest of the world’s sprinting ranks.

Add to that the prospect of Ka Ying Rising improving from his first-up run – a very real possibility according to trainer David Hayes and jockey Zac Purton – and the numbers make it hard to see any of the local sprinters taking the necessary leap to challenge him by October.

“Ka Ying Rising returned on Sunday with a 107 rating, a mark he has now produced four times across his last eight starts,” O’Sullivan said.

“It sits about 1.5 lengths short of his peak 110, achieved twice earlier this year in the G1 Centenary Sprint Cup (January) and the G1 Chairman’s Sprint Prize (April), both over 1200m at Sha Tin.

“While the 107 doesn’t indicate he’s gone to a new level, it confirms he remains in a class of his own among global sprinters.

“With The Everest still five weeks away, it’s also reasonable to think he wasn’t fully wound up, which makes the prospect of another 110 performance on Everest day a realistic expectation.”

O’Sullivan concurs with the widely held belief that if Ka Ying Rising is to go under in the Everest, it will be due to the travel, which was the undoing of champion Romantic Warrior (Acclamation) when he ran first-up in the  2023 Turnbull Stakes as a notable yard drifter.

But on the current figures, he will need to regress some two to three lengths, or have some horrid luck in running, for the local hopes to cause a boilover.

“The one unknown is travel. Ka Ying Rising has yet to race outside Hong Kong, and history shows that not every horse reproduces their best after a trip overseas,”O’Sullivan said.

“That is the key angle for the local brigade to cling to, because the ratings gap is clear. At his best, Ka Ying Rising’s 110 figure puts him 2.5–3.5 lengths clear of Australia’s best sprinters, who sit in the 102.5–104 range on exposed form.

“While some might improve to a new peak on the day, it would be a major shock to see any reach 110, and even a rating of 107+ would be a surprise.

“Conditions, luck in running, or the uncertainties of travel could all play a role, which is what will still make the race compelling. As things stand, though, the gap between him and the locals is significant.”

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