The whys and why nots of backing two returning stars at Addington tonight

[Wandering Eyes]

By Michael Guerin

The two most complete pacers in New Zealand return at Addington tonight with the same problem.

Because both Marketplace and Republican Party are so good they are supposed to win but both could easily get beaten without losing their crowns.

It is a common story in modern harness racing: wonderful horse gets bad draw or tough handicap in comeback race and connections want him driven conservatively so he starts his campaign with a positive experience.

If you think you might have read this story before you have. Last Friday, when Merlin returned off a 20m handicap in the Spring Cup at Alexandra Park. 
He was a warm favourite, he was driven perfectly. He got beat.

Republican Party faces that exact same problem tonight, when he kicks off his New Zealand Cup campaign from a 20m handicap in a $22,500 race.

Genuinely good pacers in We Walk By Faith (front line) and Alta Meteor and Mo’unga (10m) get a head start and perhaps more importantly field position over Republican Party in tonight’s 2600m.

Republican Party’s co-trainer Cran Dalgety wants him to win but doesn’t think he will yet he is the Auckland Cup and Messenger winner and everybody loves him so he opened $5 and name recognition alone could drive that price lower tonight.

“We are really happy with him and he has had two trials so he is ready as he can be,” says Dalgety.

“But I want him to be driven to fully exert himself over, say, 500m, not exert himself for 500m in the middle of the race to get around them then have to exert himself again.”

Translated from trainer-speak to punter-speak that means: He can win, but probably won’t and you shouldn’t back him.

We Walk By Faith and Alta Meteor are better bets while Don’t Stop Dreaming could win or finish last without surprising anybody because at his best he is very good and at his worst he seems very uninterested.

Like Republican Party, Marketplace is a son of the great Bettor’s Delight and he might be a little bit special.

He could be our best pacer in a year which could be almost enough time for him to escape the jet wash of Leap To Fame and Swayzee that has caused so many Kiwi pacers to crash and burn in the last two years.

A fully fit, on the speed and angry Marketplace would win tonight but he won’t be any of those things because tonight is a step down a path toward races like the $500,000 Velocity, NZ Derby and Flying Stakes, races Marketplace is long odds-on to win.

Adding to his issues tonight are the three really good rivals in Rubira, Got The Chocolates and Bettors Anvil who are fitter than him and drawn inside him.

Trainer Regan Todd doesn’t waste his words.

“In all likelihood he will go back at the start and hope for the right cart into the race but we are also aware that might not come,” says Todd.

Marketplace can still win as he only has six rivals and could easily be in the one-one with 800m to go and if he is his $1.80 opening price will feel like theft.

But if he is four back on the outer with one of his rivals ready to unleash a 55-second last 800m then could be both exceptional yet expensive.

Between now and when the harness racing season ends on December 31 both Republican Party and Marketplace are almost certain to win more stake money than any of the horses they race tonight.

But that doesn’t mean they should be carrying yours this time.

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