Merlin rated a $2.20 chance in Friday’s Holmes D G

[Wandering Eyes]

By Michael Guerin

How much difference can 500m make?

Well, maybe that question has two parts, the other being how much fitter will Merlin strip for the Holmes D G at Alexandra Park on Friday night after his first-up defeat to stablemate Sooner The Bettor.

The pair clashed two weeks ago and Sooner The Bettor found the lead over 2200m in the Spring Cup and never looked like being headed while Merlin remarkably secured the one-one soon from his 20m back mark after the start but could manage only third.

No surprise in either of those things as Sooner The Bettor is a wonderful sprinter and Merlin was always going to be vulnerable fresh up off 20m over 2200m.

So how much will change this Friday?

Merlin has to be fitter, albeit he looked pretty fit before the Spring Cup, and the extra 500m should give him more time to get handy. But how much handier can you get than the one-one he enjoyed last time?

It worked this time last year as Merlin finished second in the Spring Cup then bolted away with the Holmes D G from 20m behind, leading home a Purdon/Phelan First 4, which could be on the cards again this Friday.

The bookies are being careful though, rating him a $2.20 chance and having Sooner The Bettor at $5 and Jolimont a very short $5.50 in the opening market.

The race also doubles as a win and you are in for the IRT New Zealand Cup and while that doesn’t matter for Merlin it does for just about any other horse in the race if they hope to be in the biggest race of all.

With the two Western Australian pacers (Minstrel and Heza Sport) pulling out last week Sooner The Bettor is as good as guaranteed a Cup start but the Arna Donnelly-trained trio of Jolimont, Little Spike and The Surfer would all need to win this Friday to be certain of being at Addington on the second Tuesday in November.

To see Friday’s fields at Alexandra Park click here 

 

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