Give The Equibase Ratings System a Chance

[Wandering Eyes]

In an industry that always seems petrified by the idea of change, the announcement that a new performance-based rating system based on an Equibase algorithm is about to debut at Santa Anita probably didn't go over too well with horsemen.  Each horse will be assigned a number generated by Equibase and then races will be written using the system. One of the first races that may come up, if it fills, is open to horses rated between 80-95.

The rating number is different from Equibase's speed figures.

Santa Anita is hoping the Equibase races will help solve some of their problems with small fields because so many horses will be eligible for each race.

While this may seem like a radical concept, it is not. Few countries outside of North American have claiming races. Instead, a rating system similar to what Equibase is putting together here are used to group horses and ensure competitive races. The difference is that the ratings in most places are derived by the racing office and they do not used computer-based numbers.

Then there's the Meadowlands. Many of the Standardbred races there are based on grouping horses based on ratings provided by TrackMaster. Eight of the 15 races held Saturday night at the Meadowlands were TrackMaster races. All but one drew a full field of 10 and the winning payoffs were all over the place, a sign of good, competitive racing. The lowest priced TrackMaster winner paid $5, while there were three winners who paid $23 or more.

“I was critical of them at first,” said Dave Little, a handicapper who is part of the Meadowlands simulcast team. “But now I see that they create competitive fields The TrackMaster ratings create evenly matched racing, which is what we all want.”

Scott Warren is the Standardbred racing secretary at the Meadowlands and he too is a fan of the ratings system.

“Some people were totally against it,” Warren said. “For me, as the racing secretary, It's another tool for a racing secretary to utilize. It's been successful. With Freehold closing, that was one of the tracks that utilized it, and we gained some of their horses and the ratings helped us know where those horses belonged. With TrackMaster, they could move up for a start after a win and then drop down the next time out if they lost. It's all decided by whatever algorithm TrackMaster uses. Sometimes they may disagree with the number a horse gets, but it's worked out well. It's helped us. The tracks surrounding us in Pennsylvania and New York don't use TrackMaster, so those horses are either going to have to race in a claimer or race way above their heads. It will be interesting to see how this works for Thoroughbreds. I've used TrackMaster for a while, first at Vernon Downs and now at the Meadowlands. A lot of horsemen were against it at first. My job as a racing secretary is to have a race with a 3-1 favorite and these horsemen want their horses to go off at 3-5. If it works for us, I don't see why it wouldn't work for the Thoroughbreds.”

The first Equibase races scheduled for Santa Anita are on the card for Friday. The first race is set to go on the 6 1/2-furlong downhill turf course and is open to fillies and mares rated between 80 and 95. According to Matt Hegarty of the Daily Racing Form, there are 140 horses based in Southern California that qualify, but many may not want to enter in a down-the-hill turf race.

You can easily find the ratings for your horses on Equibase, which now lists the number. For horses gearing up for the Breeders' Cup Classic, Forever Young (Jpn) (Reel Steel {Jpn}) is a 106. Among the American based horses Journalism is on top with a 104, somehow getting a better rating than his rival Sovereignty (Into Mischief), who got a 103.

By way of comparison, Chief Buckeye (Trappe Shot), the morning line favorite in a $5,000 claimer Tuesday at Mahoning Valley is rated as a 59.

One complaint that is circulating is that people fear the Equibase races will replace claiming races. That's not going to happen, but would it be such a bad thing if it did? One of the many problems of claiming races is that some trainers will enter unsound horses hoping that someone claims their damaged goods. Claiming races are also where the suspected juicers are most likely to show up. Horses come and go from barns, which is not good them, and often land in the hands of someone who looks like they have an edge.

If this is successful at Santa Anita, you'll likely see it spread to other tracks. Having so many problems filling races, Santa Anita has nothing to lose and management deserves praise for trying something that might help fill the entry box.

 

CAW Players and the Breeders' Cup
Sorry to see that during the Breeders' Cup, the CAW players will be allowed to make win bets up to the very last second. Shortly after the traditional summer meet began, Del Mar, like NYRA, would not let the CAW players make win bets within two minutes of a race. That takes away their edge and eliminates the constant problem of seeing horses go into the gate at 4-1 and then they go down to 8-5 as they cross the wire in front. From a perception point, it's a terrible look, not something that the Breeders' Cup needs.

It also doesn't really hurt the CAW players all that much. They are still allowed to make their last-second bets in all the other pools.

 

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