Nine Observations on The Eve of Breeders’ Cup Entries

[Wandering Eyes]

The Week In Review

1) Not only will this year's Breeders' Cup championships feature the 1-2-3 finishers from each of the 2024 and 2025 GI Kentucky Derbies, but the two champion 2-year-old males who each won the GI Juvenile in the past two seasons will also be in action.

Sovereignty (Into Mischief), Journalism (Curlin) and Baeza (McKinzie) all finished within 1 ¾ lengths of each other in the Derby six months ago, and will all hook up in Saturday's GI Classic.

Mystik Dan (Goldencents), 'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) and Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}) were the top three in the '24 Derby. Mystik Dan is headed for the GI Dirt Mile, with the other two aiming for the Classic.

'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness (City of Light), the 2023 Eclipse Award and Juvenile winner, goes in the Classic, while the '24 champ and fellow 'Rising Star' Citizen Bull (Into Mischief) contests the Dirt Mile.

2) We've heard the reasoning about the alleged need for television slotting around college football while trying to maximize viewership exposure ever since the Breeders' Cup first relegated the Classic to a mid-program post time back in '23. But the Classic's placement as the sixth of nine championship races on Saturday at 3:25 p.m. (Pacific) still resonates as an aesthetic letdown. Having the main event go so early minimizes the anticipation, buildup and focal point of an otherwise-fascinating feature while lending “afterthought” status to the races that follow.

Last year's Dirt Mile was a case in point: It went off as the last of Saturday's championship races, four races after a dramatic renewal of the centerpiece Classic. Full Serrano (Arg) (Full Mast) uncorked one of the more powerful performances on the Breeders' Cup program, yet his emphatic win got lost in the shuffle because the championships had already lost steam by that point.

3) Full Serrano will be back to defend his Dirt Mile title, but the Bob Baffert-trained 'TDN Rising Star' Nysos (Nyquist) is likely to be favored.

There aren't many Grade I dirt races that have proven elusive for Baffert, but the Dirt Mile is one of them: He's 0-for-12 in that stakes.

4) Baffert on Saturday scratched Desert Gate (Omaha Beach) from the Juvenile because of a hock infection. With only nine pre-entered for the Juvenile, that means the field will be no more than eight when entries are drawn Monday.

The Juvenile has never dipped below eight starters, but has gone with that many on three occasions: 1997 (Favorite Trick), 2004 (Wilko) and 2019 (Storm the Court).

5) Believe it or not, beyond the obvious favorite, 'TDN Rising Star' Ted Noffey (Into Mischief), this year's Juvenile won't include any other entrant that ran at least once in New York.

6) Would the GI Juvenile Turf and GI Juvenile Fillies Turf be better races if they got extended from flat miles to 1 1/16 miles, matching the distances of their dirt-stakes counterparts?

Both annually draw large fields, and the extra real estate might help mitigate the disadvantages of extreme inside or outside post positions.

Of the 19 United States-based pre-entrants for those two stakes, 12 will be cutting back in distance this year after having already at least once raced at 1 1/16 miles.

By contrast, none of the 13 entrants originally based in Europe (including two who have already raced at least once in North America) will be turning back in distance, because the major prep stakes there haven't yet been carded beyond a mile.

7) When handicapping the Juvenile Turf and the GI Mile, remember that in a switch from previous seasons, the grass races on Woodbine's Turf Champions Day Sept. 13 were conducted over the seven-furlong inner course because of construction on the 12-furlong E.P. Taylor course, which has a demanding stretch run of 1,440 feet after starting from a backstretch chute.

This year, Woodbine's “Win and You're In” qualifiers for the Breeders' Cup started in front of the stands and were two-turn runs over a shorter-stretch configuration of 978 feet that more closely matches the 919-foot layout of the host track at Del Mar.

Mile contender and 'TDN Rising Star' Notable Speech (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) earned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure for his winning run in the GI Woodbine Mile, although the 2-5 favorite probably would have bested the field that day regardless of the length of the stretch.

But the GI Summer Stakes could have turned out differently for runner-up and 'TDN Rising Star' Wild Desert (Ire) (Too Darn Hot {GB}), the 1.65-1 favorite who was flying belatedly but ran out of ground just a head behind winner Argos (Nyquist). The two will meet again in the Juvenile Turf.

8) Trainer Richard Mandella's decision on Saturday to run Kopion (Omaha Beach) in the GI Sprint against males over six furlongs instead of in the GI Filly and Mare Sprint over seven furlongs, where she would have been favored, will keep her separated from Spendthrift Farm stablemate and 'TDN Rising Star' Tamara (Bolt d'Oro).

Kopion will attempt to become the fourth female to win the Sprint, joining Desert Stormer (1995), Safely Kept (1990) and Very Subtle (1987).

Remember, each of those victresses had no other short-distance Breeders' Cup option at the time, because the Filly and Mare Sprint didn't exist until 2007.

Eventual Hall-of-Famer Xtra Heat almost joined that exclusive club in 2001, when she led late but was beaten only half a length in the 2001 edition of the Sprint. (She also ran sixth in the 2002 Sprint).

The last female to attempt the Sprint wasn't that long ago. Kimari, a six-furlong specialist, ran seventh in the 2022 championships.

9) Trainer Brad Cox doesn't have an entry for this year's Classic. But looking ahead to post-Breeders' Cup, he could have two of the division's heaviest hitters priming for 2026 campaigns.

The 2-for-3 Tappan Street (Into Mischief), last seen handing Sovereignty his only defeat of '25 in the GI Florida Derby, on Saturday at Keeneland posted his sixth published workout since being sidelined with a condylar fracture the week before the Kentucky Derby.

Later that same afternoon, also at Keeneland, the Cox-trained Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}) won the GIII Fayette Stakes for the second straight year. Last year Hit Show also skipped the Breeders' Cup but went on to win the G1 Dubai World Cup in April of '25, one week after Tappan Street captured the Florida Derby.

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