The Week in Review: Back to the Drawing Board for Maximus Mischief

[Wandering Eyes]

Trainers have faced this dilemma since the beginning of time. A very good horse turns in a lackluster performance and, afterward, you can’t find any major excuses for why they failed to show up. So, what do you do?

In the case of Butch Reid and ‘TDN Rising Star’ Maximus Mischief (Into Mischief), the answer is scratch your head, come up with a new plan and just hope things turn out better next time.

With two major preps for the GI Kentucky Derby run over the weekend in the GII Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream and the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. at Santa Anita, the biggest story of the weekend was not who won, but who lost.

Three for three coming in, including a cakewalk victory in the GII Remsen S., Maximus Mischief was considered the top 3-year-old candidate based in the East and, perhaps, the only horse out there who could keep Bob Baffert out of the Kentucky Derby winner’s circle. About 45 minutes before the race, his credentials looked even stronger than they did 24 hours earlier as Tax (Arch), who was third in the Remsen, won the GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct.

But the storyline changed dramatically in Saturday’s Holy Bull as Maximus Mischief finished third, beaten 1 1/4 lengths. While such a narrow loss might ordinarily not be that alarming, that’s not the case with this one. The horse was not good. He was under a stiff drive from jockey Jose Ortiz at the half-mile pole to get past 12-1 shot Epic Dreamer (Orb) and then couldn’t hold off late rallies from winner Harvey Wallbanger (Congrats) and runner-up Everfast (Take Charge Indy).

Consider: Harvey Wallbanger (terrific name for a horse, by the way) was coming off a maiden win in his fourth start and he recorded a 64 Beyer that day. He was 29-1. Everfast was beaten 12 1/2 lengths in a first-level allowance race at Gulfstream in his previous start. He was 128-1. It was clearly the worst performance of Maximus Mischief’s career.

“We’ll give him a mulligan,” Reid said. “We certainly haven’t lost any faith in him. We know he’s a really good horse. Those kinds of things happen.”

Reid went over the colt from head to toe and while he found a few minor issues, none that really explained why his horse didn’t show up.

“He was fine this morning,” Reid said Sunday. “But he was a little tired. He’s usually a little more chipper in the mornings. He was quiet. He ate up his dinner last night and was cold and tight everywhere, so all those boxes were checked. But since he was tired I must not have had him as tight as I thought I did.”

Reid said the colt also acted up before the race, something he had not seen him do before.

“It was a combination of things,” he said. “He got a little excited pre-race. He raised some hell on the way over there and was a little broke out and did have some flank sweat going, which I didn’t like to see. I don’t know what it was, but something had him off his game yesterday.”

Reid’s plan had been to skip the GII Fountain of Youth S. and go right to the GI Florida Derby. With Maximus Mischief likely getting little out of his race Saturday, Reid has decided to change things up and will not give the horse the layoff he had planned on. The Fountain of Youth is now his likely next start.

“We were talking about that with [owners] Chuck [Zacney] and Glenn [Bennett] this morning,” Reid said. “The Fountain of Youth is back in play. It was a good two months between races and he was extra fresh going into race and I think that ended up taking a bit away from him. I’d love to find a race five or six weeks from now, and the Fountain of Youth might be right in his wheelhouse.”

The Holy Bull could not have been a stranger race. It featured two horses in Maximus Mischief and Mihos (Cairo Prince) that the pundits considered serious Derby threats. Some were also high on the Todd Pletcher-trained Federal Case (Gemologist) The other six entered looked like nothing more than filler. Mihos was fifth and Federal Case seventh.

So should we all just draw a line through the race? Probably.

Baffert and His Bench

Sometimes it looks like Bob Baffert is Duke and everyone else is Kennesaw State. The eighth guy on his bench is better than the competition’s best player.

Mucho Gusto (Mucho Macho Man) is not his best 3-year-old. He is not his second best 3-year-old. He may not even be his third best. But he was good enough to win the Robert B. Lewis, and win it easily. Under Joe Talamo, he rolled to a 4 3/4-length win over GIII Sham S. winner Gunmetal Gray (Exchange Rate). What was most impressive about the victory is that he rated this time. In his prior three starts he had shot to the lead, a tactic that failed when he tired in the stretch and finished second in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity. Talamo had him relaxed and sitting in third before he took over nearing the top of the stretch.

While Eclipse Award winner Game Winner (Candy Ride {Arg}) still merits the No. 1 spot among the Baffert team of 3-year-old prospects, few will be surprised if Improbable (City Zip) turns out to the better of the two. His resume looks that much better after the Lewis. He whipped Mucho Gusto at Los Alamitos, drawing off to beat him by five lengths. It’s the only time Mucho Gusto has lost.

TIF Has Spoken. Will Anybody Listen?

The Thoroughbred Idea Foundation released its third white paper last week and it was a sobering one. An organization created by Craig Bernick to act as an industry think tank, it tackled the issue of sports betting and how it is likely to affect horse racing going forward.

The paper concluded that if racing doesn’t make major changes, sports betting has the potential to greatly diminish racing’s total handle.

The authors wrote: “While sports betting has long existed in an unorganized fashion, its legalization will swiftly lead to a massive development of supporting infrastructure–including marketing, data services and customer management–that will transform the competitive landscape of the gaming industry. Racing’s existing customers, including our best customers, will be wooed by fabulously funded sports betting agencies, while future generations of potential customers will be avalanched by customized fixed-odds betting products Adding to this competition for bettors, the cost of a sports bet is significantly lower than horse racing’s takeout, typically two-to-three times cheaper.”

It’s hard to argue with any of their conclusions, particularly when it has become apparent that only a small handful of racetracks, perhaps only Monmouth and Delaware Park, will receive any additions to their purse accounts due to sports betting.

The TIF concludes that if you can’t beat them, join them–that some of the primary reasons why sports betting is more popular than betting on horses is because, with sports, the takeout is so low and the odds are fixed. Calling on horsemen’s groups to lead the charge, the TIF says racing has to start taking a serious look at getting rid of the pari-mutuel system and switching over to fixed odds. Lowering takeout is also necessary.

These are smart people and they’re right on target on this matter.

But this is horse racing, where you could get 10 industry leaders in the same room and they wouldn’t agree on what to have for lunch. I hope the TIF keeps pounding away on the major issues that dominate the sport, but I will forever remain skeptical that their voice is more than just a voice in the wilderness.

 

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