Logical Favorites, Playable Longshots Face Off In Commonwealth Turf

[Wandering Eyes]

There appears to be something for everyone–pari-mutelly speaking–in Saturday's GIII Commonwealth Turf Stakes, the final age-restricted contest on the grass on the Kentucky circuit for 2025.

Donamire Farm's GI Franklin-Simpson Stakes hero Troubleshooting led home a top-four sweep for the outstanding Not This Time when last seen in the GIII Bryan Station Stakes at Keeneland back on Oct. 25, and he looms the one they'll have to beat at or around his 7-2 morning line. Placed once from three tries on the dirt to begin his career, he has conversely missed the trifecta just a single time in seven starts on the turf. The homebred took out the July 4 Dade Park Dash at Ellis and was just touched off in allowance company in Henderson Aug. 4 ahead of his heroics at Kentucky Downs.

Giocoso (Not This Time) saw off Simulate (Blame) in the GII Secretariat Stakes at Colonial in August and led the field into the final furlong of the Sept. 6 Gun Runner Stakes at Kentucky Downs before settling for second behind Plensa (Caravaggio). The dark bay exits a troubled third in the Bryan Station.

Montadore (Nyquist) would otherwise be three for four on the grass but for a disqualification in his turf bow in Virginia July 24 and he annexed his lone appearance over the Matt Winn, taking a nine-furlong allowance by two lengths just shy of three weeks ago.

Mansetti (Collected) upset the Aug. 16 King's Plate and just missed in the Sept. 9 Prince of Wales Stakes before finishing runner-up in the GIII Ontario Derby Oct. 18. There is enough turf in his female family to give this a shot, but the flow of the race may not suit.

If seeking out a longer-priced alternative or two, Three Diamonds Farm Anegada (Midshipman) endured a checkered passage when fourth, two lengths adrift in the Secretariat and there were clear issues in the Gun Runner. The gelding bounced back in no uncertain terms in the Oct. 5 Hawthorne Derby, benefitting from a truly run race to score by a half-length.

Outrunner (American Pharoah) hasn't really run a bad race in five starts on the turf, including a runner-up effort in the Tale of the Cat Stakes in June, and was most recently third to Grade I winner World Beater (Oscar Performance) in the GIII Old Dominion Derby at Colonial Sept. 6.

A distant seventh in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic, Pegram,  Watson and Weitman's Nevada Beach (Omaha Beach) looks to have four other rivals over a barrel in Saturday's GIII Native Diver Stakes at Del Mar. The open-lengths winner of the Los Alamitos Derby in June and of the GI Goodwood Stakes Sept. 27, the dark bay is the 3-5 morning-line choice ahead of Indispensable (Constitution), fourth in the GI Pacific Classic here in August and a latest third in the GIII Ack Ack Stakes going Churchill's one-turn mile Sept. 27.

The final of the weekend's three graded events is Sunday's rescheduled GIII Pebbles Stakes at Aqueduct. Fast Market (Volatile) required no fewer than nine starts to win her maiden, doing so with some authority when reporting home a 2 1/4-length winner going a mile here Sept. 21. Stepped up in class for the GII Sands Point Stakes Oct. 18, the $350,000 OBS June graduate nearly got the job done and she has the benefit of the rail and Flavien Prat this time around.

Twirling Candy was represented by GIII Jockey Club Oaks heroine Fionn just last weekend and has a good chance for a new graded winner in the form of Sweet Treasure. Fifth when first-up for nearly 11 months in Churchill allowance company Sept. 27, she stripped fitter when kicking away to score by two lengths beneath the Twin Spires on Halloween. Florent Geroux will need to work out a trip from an outside draw.

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