By The Numbers: NorCal Barns Hit Hard From Consolidation

[Wandering Eyes]

News last week about the loss of this year's GIII Bob Hope Stakes after receiving just three entrants–all from the Bob Baffert stable–wasn't exactly a shock. But is it a canary in the coal mine concerning the health of California's horse inventory?

Not on its own. It is, however, one among a flock of important indicators.

Growing attention has been spent on the implications from the consolidation of top bloodstock between fewer and fewer stables, with many observing how a greater distribution of horses among more stables would help the trainers, the sport's ledgers, and in many ways the horses themselves.

Expanding upon this idea, economists would agree how one major indicator of a healthy racing marketplace is a good cross-section of trainers–spanning the large, medium and small barns–all thriving in a way that makes the entire product competitive and appealing to the bettor.

As we approach the last month of 2025, enough time has passed since the closure of Pleasanton this March–and with it a racing circuit in the North of the state–to gauge the health of a key section of California's racing product, which is those trainers from the North. How important are they to California?

“A horse in the North, and horsemen in the North, [are] as valuable as any horse or horseman in the South, regardless of the price tag,” said president of The Stronach Group's 1/ST business, Aidan Butler, at a California Horse Racing Board (CHRB) meeting a year ago, arguing how a system that didn't involve direct competition would be in the best long-term interests of the state's racing.

Using a California Thoroughbred Trainers' (CTT) evaluation of the fate of these former Northern-based stables since the closure of Pleasanton, as well as earnings and starts statistics available on Equibase, however, three main trends materialize indicating these stables have really struggled to find their footing under this system.

A significant number of barns have currently left the state (12 in total). Another notable number of trainers have called it quits altogether (22).

For the barns that have maintained a footprint in the state, the overall impression has been one of shrinkage–an average 50% decline in both earnings and starts, with only a few weeks left in the year to make up the deficit.

Concurrently, this one-time infusion of horses south has proven a plus for the bottom half of the state. Last month, there were 269 more horses in SoCal than the corresponding month last year. Field sizes have understandably ticked up, including at the current Del Mar meet. But it's the state's SoCal barns which appear to have primarily benefited from this consolidation.

Racing at Del Mar | Horsephotos

Overall Numbers

The TDN asked California Thoroughbred Trainers (CTT) to analyze the impact of the new California single circuit on trainers who were formerly based in Northern California.

According to the CTT's analysis, there were 61 Northern California horsemen and women who were stabled at Pleasanton at some point during their final meet up until the facility closed to stabling in March. Of these:

• 13 trainers immediately retired or disbanded their stable entirely.
• Of the 27 trainers who relocated their entire string to Southern California, nearly all of them downsized. Four of these trainers subsequently closed down.
• During Emerald Downs' 2025 meet, three trainers split their stables between Santa Anita and the Washington track (and some of these horses returned to Southern California when the meet ended in September).
• 17 former NorCal trainers sent their entire string to Emerald Downs. When that meet ended, 11 of these 17 trainers moved their horses to Turf Paradise, while one trainer took their string to San Luis Rey in California. Five of these 17 trainers subsequently disbanded their strings entirely.
• There was one trainer who initially left 10 horses at Santa Anita and sent 40 horses to Texas. In June, however, that trainer took the 10 Santa Anita horses to Lone Star Park.

When asked about the short and long-term implications from these numbers, CTT executive director Alan Balch said it is “especially difficult” to forecast the future.

Santa Anita recently announced increased purses in selected categories to $70,000 for MSW and 1X Allowance for the upcoming Classic Meet, 50% of which are for Cal-breds. The Cal-bred maiden bonus will be increased from $10,000 to $12,500.

“Santa Anita has just announced purse increases, which is positive. On the other hand, purses remain much higher elsewhere,” said Balch. “Perhaps the biggest and most critical unknown is this coming year's California population of two-year-olds, given the declining national foal crop, and particularly California's.”

The Numbers Behind the Numbers

Aidan Molinaro is the son of former Northern California-based trainer Kent Molinaro. He wore several hats at last year's Golden State Racing meet at Pleasanton, including paddock host, handicapper and marketing officer.

This past summer, Molinaro worked on the Wyoming racing circuit as a clocker and morning-line maker. He has a Master's degree in communications from St. Mary's College of California.

Given his long roots in the north of the state, Molinaro was curious how the loss of a Northern racing circuit had impacted those horsemen and women he had grown up around.

Using statistics available on Equibase, Molinaro sat down and compared the fates of 41 trainers based at Pleasanton last winter.

Using earnings and starts data for these 41 stables, Molinaro found what he describes as a landscape of “massive earning declines, premature retirement, stable closures, and a restructuring of nearly every Northern California operation.”

Mirroring Molinaro's approach, the TDN examined all the former NorCal stables that have kept a presence in California (as per the CTT's analysis), 27 trainers in total.

This comprises all trainers that relocated their entire barns to Southern California; those trainers that split their stables between SoCal and Emerald Downs; and the one trainer who took his string to Emerald Downs but returned to SoCal when the Washington track closed for the year.

Using Equibase, the TDN found the following trends (with the caveat there's still more than a month left of racing in Southern California):

• The average earnings of these 27 stables have dropped just over 50% this year over last. Last year, the average stable earning among these trainers was $558k. This year it's around $261k.
• The average number of starts these stables have made has also dropped around 50% this year over last–from an average 165 starts in 2024 to 81 so far this year.
• Taking into account potential earnings during the last few weeks of the year, 12 of these 27 trainers are on track to see both their annual starts and annual earnings drop over 50% comparing 2025 to 2024 figures.

In terms of earnings, trainer Andy Mathis has arguably done the best of the larger barns, earning so far this year $874,896, a slight uptick over his total of $843,998 last year.

SoCal-based trainer Bob Baffert | Horsephotos

Horse Inventory

Though the number of statewide race days this year is expected to be 155 as compared to 298 last year (a 48% decline), California's daytime Thoroughbred handle is down only 3% through October, which included one day of the Breeders' Cup (as per a report at the most recent California Horse Racing Board meeting).

Using a comparative cross-section of trainers, however, the rewards of this consolidated system appear to have largely benefited those primarily Southern-based trainers.

The TDN used Equibase to look at the top 20 trainers from Del Mar's 2024 summer meet (not including Eric Kruljac in this analysis, as he retired early in 2025, nor Todd Fincher, as he's primarily based elsewhere).

Among these top 20 SoCal stables, there was just an 8% decrease in individual stable earnings–from an average of $4.09 million last year, to an average $3.77 million this year (with weeks left to run).

We also see an average decrease in the number of starts among these 20 trainers of just 11% (from 319 last year to 282 this year).

Looking at overall horse inventory numbers, it strongly appears that some of the horses formerly under the auspices of Northern-based trainers have been recirculated among their Southern-based compatriots.

Referring to figures provided via a monthly analysis from Thoroughbred Owners of California (TOC), Balch said that horse numbers in California have understandably declined this year over last, given the loss of a racing calendar in the North.

When looking at horse population totals on a month-by-month basis this year over last, the declines have shown ebbs and flows rather than proving uniform, Balch said, pointing to fluctuations from “younger horses arriving” and “trainers replacing older stock.”

The smallest decline was a fall of 13% in January (comparing 2024 to 2025). Pleasanton didn't close its doors to Thoroughbreds until the end of March this year. August constituted the largest population drop of 24%.

In the last available monthly totals, there were 2544 horses in Southern California in October, said Balch. This constitutes a drop of 17% in California as a whole from the corresponding month in 2024, when there were 2275 horses in Southern California and 778 in the North.

Asked what he'd like to see come from his analysis, Molinaro said in the short term at least, fair racing dates should be granted next year to Ferndale and Fresno, to capture the horses from the Oregon fair circuit and from Emerald Downs respectively.

“The California racing industry can return to statewide racing by integrating these two race meets, which have historically been very successful,” Molinaro wrote in an email.

“I believe they will continue to be, if given the opportunity to race by the state of California's industry leaders and most important stakeholders,” he added. “Hopefully these raw numbers and facts will serve as a stark call to action.”

The post By The Numbers: NorCal Barns Hit Hard From Consolidation appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

View the full article