Final Two-Turn Remsen Yields a Rivalry, Raises Questions About 9 Furlong Stakes at New Belmont

[Wandering Eyes]

The GI Kentucky Derby aspirants Paladin (Gun Runner) and Renegade (Into Mischief) have a nice little rivalry going after facing each other twice in the span of seven weeks at Aqueduct.

Even though the Chad Brown-trained Paladin ($1.9 million FTSAUG) has bested the Todd Pletcher-trained Renegade ($975,000 KEESEP) both times-once via DQ on Oct. 17, and an outright win Saturday in the GII Remsen Stakes-the two colts might not be as far apart as their records indicate.

Paladin (owned by Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Brook Smith, Peter Brant and breeder Summer Wind Equine) will head to Payson Park in Florida undefeated at 2-for-2, while Renegade (owned by Repole Stable and breeders Robert and Lawana Low) will still be eligible for a maiden race at 0-for-3 when he likely settles in for the winter at Palm Beach Downs.

Yet their one-two finish in the 112th edition of the Remsen showed each can handle two turns over nine furlongs in a stakes, a mark of distinction that is becoming increasingly rare for Triple Crown-caliber contenders at age 2.

In fact, stakes experience at 1 1/8 miles around two turns appears set to vanish altogether from the juvenile-season portion of the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” series once the new Belmont Park opens next autumn and replaces Aqueduct.

That's because nine-furlong dirt races over Belmont's 1 ½-mile oval are run out of a backstretch chute around one turn, unlike at soon-to-be-extinct Aqueduct, where 1 1/8-miles races on the main track start in front of the stands and are conducted around two turns.

This year's Remsen drew 12 entrants and went off with a robust field of 11, the most starters of any of the eight points-awarding qualifying Derby prep stakes so far this season.

After Paladin's victory, Brown described the Remsen as a “good education” because the nine-furlong stakes afforded his colt a chance to “get that two-turn race into him as a 2-year-old.”

But will a one-turn Remsen a year from now be as sought-after a spot for trainers? The distance won't change, but the dynamics of one-turn versus two-turn races are decidedly different.

 

Looking back…

The Dec. 6 two-turn Remsen was a logical landing spot for both colts after Renegade barely out finished Paladin in a one-turn-mile maiden special weight a month and a half ago, a race that subsequently produced one next-out favored winner among its also-rans.

In that Oct. 17 matchup, second-time starter Renegade broke to the back in the seven-horse field, advanced steadily at the fence, but got pocketed at the inside on the far turn and into upper stretch while awaiting clear running room.

Renegade was chasing both the surviving pacemaker from an early four-way speed battle, plus Paladin, who had broken on top in his debut but had conceded the lead to force the issue three paths off the rail while always prominent into the stretch.

Renegade, the 4.93-1 third choice, tipped out and came after the 1.13-1 favored Paladin with a renewed burst of speed inside the eighth pole. But after splitting rivals he shifted outward after receiving a left-handed crack of the crop, leaning into and bumping Paladin, who had attained a short lead.

The stewards lit the inquiry sign after Renegade crossed the wire a head in front of Paladin, and eventually reversed the order of finish.

When the two met again in the Remsen, Paladin was favored at 1.88-1 over Renegade at 2.97-1.

Paladin again broke alertly and opted not to hook up with dueling 53-1 and 29-1 long shots. He settled in third along the inside under Flavien Prat and always appeared to be a pace-pressing threat, incrementally edging closer starting at the half-mile marker.

Renegade broke inward from post nine, then got a midpack trip while three deep through the first turn. He began to advance six furlongs out, then, just before the half-mile pole, he accelerated from sixth to third, with Irad Ortiz Jr. intent on attaining a more forward position by the time the field crested the far turn.

Paladin had to be scrubbed on for run 2 ½ furlongs out, and Prat had to bring him out to the five path in search of clear running room into the lane.

Renegade was just to his inside, and although he initially appeared to be tailing off while shifting and drifting in upper stretch, his mid-stretch kick was similar to the effort he uncorked in his maiden DQ: He both re-engaged at the eighth pole and appeared to be emboldened by splitting rivals, again with a tiring leader to his inside and the onrushing Paladin outside.

But this time Renegade didn't interfere with Paladin, and Renegade didn't have that final bit of oomph to propel himself to the front. Paladin finished straight and with purpose, opening up by two lengths under the wire.

The quarter-mile splits for the first mile of the Remsen were :23.32, :24.15, :25.06 and :25.72, with a final eighth in :12.72. The nine-furlong clocking was 1:50.97, which equated to an 85 Beyer Speed Figure for Paladin (a dip of two points off the 87 that Paladin and Renegade co-earned in their maiden race).

Notably, for the second straight year, 2-year-old fillies in the same-day GII Demoiselle Stakes ran faster than the colts in the Remsen. The 2-for-2 Zany (American Pharoah) covered nine furlongs in 1:50.55 (89 Beyer) when demolishing the Demoiselle field by 8 ½ lengths.

But the slower Remsen clocking shouldn't detract from the “how they did it” aspects of the race. Additionally, Brown said post-win that Paladin lost a front shoe at some point during the Remsen, and Renegade had reportedly missed a November workout leading up to the race because of a quarter crack.

 

Looking ahead…

Assuming that the New York Racing Association (NYRA) implements a schedule for the new Belmont Park that keeps the traditional first-Saturday-of-December Grade II stakes (Remsen, Demoiselle and Cigar Mile) on the dirt track before moving to the Tapeta surface for the winter-and then reverting to the main track in time for the GII Wood Memorial Stakes on the first Saturday in April-the 2026-27 “Road to the Derby” qualifying series will be without a two-turn, nine-furlong dirt race until mid-February's GII Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds.

Under such a template, not only would the Remsen become a one-turn, 1 1/8-miles dirt race, but another current points-awarding, nine-furlong NYRA stakes, the early-winter Withers, would become a Tapeta race.

Because it's not a graded stakes, the fact that the Withers would no longer be a dirt race might seem inconsequential. But in each of the last five runnings, the sophomores who won the Withers (which has been run in both January and February during that time frame) were held out of further racing until the Wood Memorial, with the logic being that an affinity for the Aqueduct dirt might translate to same-surface success in a final prep before the Kentucky Derby.

There were some fairly relevant “headline horses” in that group. Notably, the Brown-trained Early Voting (Gun Runner) won the 2022 GI Preakness Stakes after capturing the Withers, running second in the Wood, and being held out of the Derby. And in 2023, the Brad Cox-trained Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}) won the Withers and ran second in the Wood. He didn't flourish during the rest of his 3-year-old season, but Hit Show, now approaching age 6, is on target to defend his 2025 victory in the G1 Dubai World Cup.

Even if you don't think it's a big deal that the Remsen will become a one-turn, nine-furlong race deep on the juvenile-season calendar, or that NYRA will likely be switching its January-March preps for the dirt-track Wood Memorial to Tapeta, consider that the Wood itself is also slated to become a one-turn, 1 1/8-miles dirt prep for the Derby when the new Belmont Park opens.

That's relevant because the Wood, with its Grade II status, already faces tough competition by having to go up against two other Grade I preps (Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass Stakes) that are traditionally run on the same date at the very same nine-furlong distance.

In 2027, NYRA will be trying to not only lure entrants for a lower-graded stakes without the benefit of any prep stakes over the Belmont surface, but it's logical to think that trainers of top contenders might not want to be running nine furlongs around one turn in the Wood as a final tightener four weeks before the two-turn, 10-furlong Kentucky Derby.

 

The post Final Two-Turn Remsen Yields a Rivalry, Raises Questions About 9 Furlong Stakes at New Belmont appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

View the full article