Racing in 2036: Horseplayer Mark Stanton

[Wandering Eyes]

What will horse racing look like in 2036 from a horseplayer. I see TDN has had some of the major power brokers respond, most of whom didn't mention anything about the gamblers. Last I checked the racetrack ecosystem, maintenance/upkeep, improvements, purses, etc. are paid by takeout (which is a percent of handle bet, for the owners out there that I shockingly have found out a vast majority of don't know) and subsidies.

I responded on my X account about the lack of horseplayer representation in this hypothetical racing question of the year 2036 and was pleasantly surprised when TDN responded asking me to send my prediction. Well, here I am to respond for good or bad.

About me: Horse gambler since a young age, horse owner in the last 10 years, and I won't mention my ownership accolades (you wouldn't believe me and they are driven by people smarter than me when it comes to picking out equine talent). The gambling side, however, I will comment on. I won't sit here and tell you how much I lost as a kid (good thing my bankroll was much smaller then), but I will say I have evolved into a sharp player (both in contests and live bankroll). It took time, hard lessons, being a sponge of reading and constantly educating myself and changing how, and more importantly when, I play. I have taken down the two largest Pick 6s ever paid at the Spa in the last few years for a combined $1.3 million and 90% of my wagering takes place in California.  The other 10% goes to Pick 5 and Pick 6 carryovers wherever they are.  While my handle hasn't decreased, my selectivity has. I bet more on certain days and nothing on the other 24 or so days each month–and the large players I speak to are doing the same or leaving.

So here is my prediction for 2036– two actually: one from the Grinch (my brain) and one from Santa (my heart, as I have met too many friends that are employed by the greatest gambling game on the planet):

 

1. Nothing changes for the next 10 years, all participants remain greedy (except the retail gamblers) and take the slow kill. Nobody (states/tracks) talks to anyone because the bottom line and the next quarter is all that matters. Zero forward thinking.

Retail gamblers on racing go away in the U.S. as they are completely ignored and priced out from large takeouts and other things to make wagers on. The large retail bettors that probably make up 50% of the retail wagering start telling the smaller ones, “If I can't survive on rebates of being a 'high roller,' you have no shot.” These large retail players ($10M annually) move their handle to Europe/Hong Kong/Japan as the World Pool sees the weakness in the U.S. market and the opportunity to capture market share. Large retail players want a challenge –and a fair game–and they learn the nuances of international racing.

The CAWs will not eat each other but rather move on to the next money making advantage game. They were well ahead of us retail players but the word got out about them (I'd say to the racetracks' demise), but if CAWs can't see last-second action (they are looking for ineffiencies in pools and churn millions with large rebates), they lose their edge and leave. Handle goes down 40% (sorry, I am just guessing because no track shows CAW handle. Maybe it is 80%. Why is it that no track breaks out retail vs CAW play? Perhaps it would scare the industry to death is why?).

So handle plummets–remember what handle drives right? The industry gets weaker.  Jobs are lost. Tracks close. People wish the foal crop was what it was in 2026. Government ends slot subsidies. It goes to things deemed more 'worthy' like education/seniors. HHR (Historical Horse Racing (slots based on prior races run) is no longer. There are new games like HNFL (Historical NFL slots that revenue goes to the NFL that pay out better). Parx has slot welfare, but whoops, when they signed that deal it didn't include revenue from mobile phone wagering which has grown significantly over the years. Tech changes.  Prediction markets are next and they are not going to violate the Interstate Horse Racing Act of 1978 (I'm serious, the Act is from 1978). There are 20 trainers and six tracks.         Finally, racing continues to ignore their core customer–the retail gambler. (Fans are great, but they don't all bet and they show up a few times a year to spend some money on tickets, food and beverage, and some mementos.)  If you can't exist without subsidies you won't exist. Socialism, that is what that is, and socialism is 0 for pick a number.

– The Grinch

 

2. It is 2036. Horses, aftercare, and racing's overall product have never been better. Ten years ago, industry stakeholders realized they were slowly ruining a great game and they all agreed to take a financial hit to better the product and ensure its survival. They formed an allegiance in 2026 as they knew if they went after each other instead of working together, the end of U.S. racing was imminent.

Tracks that were owned by people or entities not interested in racing, but for casinos/condos/etc. were forced to sell to those that were, by government mandate, as it would cripple jobs and the 'agriculture industry.' Those that refused learned what Eminent Domain means. The government comes in and takes your property. They earmark it a state park that can never be built on except for racing's best interest.

The tracks are not just for racing. It is space for other forms of non-gambling entertainment.  The industry understood the threats to the parimutuel pool established in 1867. They brought in new customers through the World Pool. Anywhere in the world a person could bet a U.S. track –in return U.S. citizens could bet into other countries' tracks but it would all be commingled (large pool, higher liquidity). Fixed odds are everywhere and there is no max bet. If you want to be in this game to take bets, you don't get to take off risk. Learn to hedge. Tracks/ADWs worked with prediction markets in 2026 and signed deals. Retail gamblers have multiple options now.

Handle thrives and with that purses, foal crops and field sizes as well. You can cross-bet every sport (including racing) with parlays.  When a race is over, the results are immediate, as are the photos pending it official. Jockeys are required to give 15 second interviews of their race. Races are never run on top of each other. There are stall limits. The cost of betting a race (takeout) has decreased significantly as the game grew the prior 10 years.  And all of us retail gamblers laugh about when tracks would advertise 'retail- friendly wagers' a decade ago.

– Santa

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