TDN Derby Top 12: February Kicks Off With Four Stakes, Six Ranked Contenders

[Wandering Eyes]

Last week's news that juvenile champ and 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard' Ted Noffey (Into Mischief) was off the GI Kentucky Derby trail because of bone bruising resulted in a No. 1 vacancy.

I went right down to deadline trying to figure out which of the top three listed below should be the new kingpin. I felt I could have made a cogent case for any of them being No. 1.

However, I also feel that from No. 4 on down right now it's a kaleidoscopic free-for-all to round out the Top 12.

The Derby prep races yet to come will far outweigh the value of those we've already seen. There are points-awarding stakes this Friday (Aqueduct, Oaklawn) and Saturday (Tampa Bay Downs and Santa Anita) featuring six of the contenders ranked below.

1) DESERT GATE (c, Omaha Beach–Theogony, by Curlin). O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Twin Oaks Bloodstock (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $125,000 Wlg '23 KEENOV; $100,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP; $260,000 2yo '25 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-2-0, $246,000. Last start: 2nd Oct. 4 GI American Pharoah Stakes.

Among the races that never came to pass last year that I would have liked to bet on was the matchup of Desert Gate and Ted Noffey in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

The undefeated Ted Noffey still would have been favored over fellow 'Rising Star' Brant (Gun Runner), just like he ended up being in that Oct. 31 stakes.

But Desert Gate would have made for an intriguing third choice considering his final prep, the GI American Pharoah Stakes, was a lot better than the runner-up finish appeared on paper.

That showdown never happened, because this son of Omaha Beach missed the Breeders' Cup with a hock infection. Ted Noffey won the Juvenile and subsequent Eclipse Award honors.

Now that champ is sidelined and Desert Gate, last month's No 2-ranked contender, has been elevated to the top spot, edging out two other closely matched contenders.

Desert Gate will be in action Saturday, having drawn the rail for the one-mile GIII Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita.

This colt (125,000 KEENOV; $100,000 KEESEP; $260,000 OBSMAR) broke his maiden at first asking June 13 sprinting five furlongs under strong handling (86 Beyer).

Trainer Bob Baffert entered him next in the Aug. 9 GIII Best Pal Stakes over six furlongs, and pace-pressing Desert Gate delivered an 8 3/4-length blowout (79 Beyer).

In the Sept. 7 GI Del Mar Futurity, Desert Gate was second, a length behind his $3-million stablemate Brant, executing several in-race moves to get better positioning, then kicking clear to finish 3 1/4 lengths ahead of the rest of the pack (88 Beyer).

In the Oct. 4 American Pharoah, Desert Gate led as the 9-10 favorite and took pressure from the second fave. He put away that rival when headed, then repulsed a new stretch bid from a different foe. He got nailed at the wire by 'TDN Rising Star' presented by Hagyard Intrepido (Maximus Mischief), losing by only three-quarters of a length (86 Beyer). He fought off multiple challengers and came up just short of victory.

Desert Gate has been let go at juicy odds of 59-1, 68-1 and 58-1 in the first three pools of the 2026 Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW).

2) PALADIN (c, Gun Runner–Secret Sigh, by Tapit). O-Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Peter M. Brant, Brook T. Smith, and Summer Wind Equine, LLC; B-Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY); T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $1,900,000 Ylg '24 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $184,250. Last start: WON Dec. 6 GII Remsen Stakes.

Paladin, at 2-for-2, is the only Top 12 contender to have won at nine furlongs. He'll go that distance again as the likely favorite in the Feb. 14 GII Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds.

This $1.9 million FTSAUG son of Gun Runner took down Aqueduct's GII Remsen Stakes by two lengths (85 Beyer) Dec. 6.

Paladin has recovered from getting roughed up a bit in that win (hind-leg cut, lost right front shoe). Trainer Chad Brown has been breezing him at Payson Park in Florida, where Paladin has recorded five half-mile works since Dec. 28.

Brown doesn't ship many horses to New Orleans. Over the past five years, the majority of them (10/16) have been turf starters.

On the main track there during that time frame, Brown has saddled four colts in the Fair Grounds series of 3-year-old Derby preps. Sierra Leone (2024 Risen Star) was the only winner. Brown's three other sophomore starters on the Fair Grounds dirt since 2021 have been third (Zandon in the 2022 Risen Star and Tuscan Gold in the 2024 GII Louisiana Derby) and sixth (Septarian in the 2025 Risen Star).

Favored at 1.13-1 first time out, Paladin broke his maiden via disqualification in an Aqueduct one-turn mile Oct. 17 (87 Beyer), finishing just a head behind the horse who fouled him, the No. 9-ranked Renegade (Into Mischief).

Again well-backed at 1.88-1 odds in the Remsen, Paladin broke running from post two and settled in third along the inside behind dueling longshots. He worked his way closer starting at the half-mile marker, required some far-turn urging from Flavien Prat, but responded well and swept out to the five path for the drive. Paladin finished focused, this time opening up from Renegade.

3) NEARLY (c, Not This Time–Ib Prospecting, by Mineshaft). O-Centennial Farms; B-Wind Hill Farm (FL); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-0, $249,900. Last start: WON Jan. 31 GIII Holy Bull Stakes.

If we were ranking Derby prospects exclusively among those who have made a start at age three, Nearly (Not This Time) would be the division's clear leader.

In this past Saturday's GIII Holy Bull Stakes, this $350,0000 KEESEP colt from Todd Pletcher's stable forced an overheated pace and drilled the favorite into defeat. Nearly had plenty left to swat back an off-the-turn closer before opening up to win by 5 3/4 lengths over a short-stretch configuration.

Nearly has now won three straight at Gulfstream by a combined 20 lengths. He clearly relishes the surface there, and it plays well to his speed-centric style.

Nearly's winning Beyer figure of 98 for the 1 1/16-miles Holy Bull and the 97 he earned winning a Jan. 2 seven-furlong allowance/optional claimer at Gulfstream both rate as the top two Beyers for any 3-year-old so far in 2026.

Visually, Nearly looked good under pressure. He went blitzingly fast yet finished with aplomb.

But the pace profile of the 1:44.52 Holy Bull was so exaggeratedly fast early/slow late (quarter-mile splits of :22.82, :23.14, :24.36 and :27.10, final sixteenth in :7.10) that it's hard to get a handle on how well Nearly might fare at longer distances against better competition.

It's also reasonable to wonder just how much of a home-court advantage he gains from Gulfstream. His only previous race on a different surface was a last-place run in his Aqueduct debut that left his connections baffled.

The Mar. 28 GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream is next.

Nearly | Lauren King

4) COMMANDMENT (c, Into Mischief–Sippican Harbor, by Orb). O-Wathnan Racing; B-Lee Pokoik (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $485,000 RNA Wlg '23 FTKNOV; $475,000 RNA Ylg '24 FTSAUG; $500,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-0-0, $165,459. Last start: WON Jan. 3 Mucho Macho Man Stakes.

Commandment, who dominated the one-turn mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream by 6 3/4 lengths with a 91 Beyer Jan. 3, will target the GII Fountain of Youth Stakes there Feb. 28 for his two-turn debut.

This son of Into Mischief ($485,000 RNA FTKNOV; $475,000 RNA FTSAUG; $500,000 KEESEP) has been slightly slow from the gate in his first three races, but not alarmingly so at this point in his development.

Commandment makes up the difference by settling into a comfortable rhythm, even when covered up in traffic, and has shown he can split horses without hesitation when asked to.

Prior to winning the Mucho Macho Man under confident handling, Commandment rallied from 11th to get fourth going six furlongs in his 82-Beyer Keeneland debut Oct. 4.

Stretched to seven furlongs at Churchill, this Brad Cox trainee won going away by 5 1/2 lengths.

Six horses have since run back out of Commandment's Nov. 1 maiden victory, but none managed better than fourth in their next starts.

However, Commandment's Oct. 4 race has yielded some key performers: Runner-up Rockies Balboa (Girvin) lost his next start but then won back-to-back races at Gulfstream by a combined 10 3/4 lengths. Third-place finisher Gallivant (Into Mischief) won Keeneland's Bowman Mill Stakes by six lengths Oct. 25 while still a maiden. Sixth-place finisher Mesquite (Union Rags) broke his maiden at 4-5 odds at Churchill, then was second, beaten only three-quarters of a length, in the Jan. 17 GIII Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds.

5) BUETANE (c, Tiz the Law–Taboo, by Forestry). 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Merriebelle Stable, LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $150,000 Ylg '24 FTSAUG; $1,150,000 2yo '25 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $148,000. Last start: 2nd Jan. 10 GII San Vicente Stakes.

Buetane was second best as the 1-2 beaten favorite in the Jan. 10 GI San Vicente Stakes. But considering he hadn't raced since finishing second behind Ted Noffey in the Sept. 1 GI Hopeful Stakes-and considering he was not hammered on for run by Juan Hernandez in the late stages of the San Vicente when it was evident he wouldn't catch the leader-that two-length defeat sprinting seven furlongs shouldn't be held against him.

We'll get a better read on Buetane ($150,000 FTSAUG; $1.15 million OBSAPR) in Friday's 1 1/16-miles GIII Southwest Stakes, his two-turn debut.

Trainer Bob Baffert had cross-entered this son of Tiz the Law in both the Southwest and last Saturday's Holy Bull Stakes, but scratched out of the Gulfstream race.

Leaving the gate in the San Vicente, Buetane broke in and bumped the eventual winner, So Happy (Runhappy). He was last in the field of five down the backstretch and got second run at the lead in deep stretch after So Happy collared a tiring pacemaker at the eighth pole. Buetane finished up ridden out but by no means fully extended in an effort that upped his last-race Beyer by 10 points to 92.

Joel Rosario, who is based at Oaklawn, gets the call in a jockey change. He's ridden only sparingly for Baffert over the past four years, with just 10 mounts since the start of 2022. But the most recent one was a winner, with Baffert and Rosario teaming for victory with Goal Oriented in the Grade I Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita on opening day of the 2025-26 meet.

6) LITMUS TEST (c, Nyquist–Study Hard, by Malibu Moon). O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Bashor, Dianne, Determined Stables, Golconda Stable, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Donovan, Catherine; B-Machmer Hall (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $875,000 Ylg '24 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-0-1, $350,188. Last start: WON Dec. 13 GII Los Alamitos Futurity.

Litmus Test, an $875,000 FTSAUG colt by 2016 Derby winner Nyquist, is the 5-2 morning-line favorite for Friday's Southwest Stakes. The 1 1/16-mile prep got rescheduled from this past Saturday, when winter weather wiped out a weekend's worth of racing at Oaklawn.

With five lifetime races at age two, including three at two turns and two in Grade I stakes, this Bob Baffert trainee has a broader foundational base than many of his Top 12 counterparts.

Litmus Test has enough speed to be a pace-pressing threat, but being right up on the lead isn't a requirement for this colt to fire his best shot.

Although he was third, then fourth, behind the now-sidelined Ted Noffey in both the GI Breeders' Futurity Stakes and Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Litmus Test really wasn't in the same league as that eventual divisional champion back in October.

But his 1 1/4-length clawback score over five rivals in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity Dec. 13 did put Litmus Test the same Beyer ballpark (96) as the division's fastest horses so far in 2025-26.

Litmus Test | Benoit photo

7) SCHOOLYARDSUPERMAN (c, Practical Joke–Tizlegal by Tiznow). O-Hit The Bid Racing Stable and CMNWLTH; B-Woods Edge Farm, LLC; T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $150,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP; $295,000 RNA 2yo OBSMAR. Lifetime record: 3-1-1-0, $63,750. Last start WON Dec. 6 AQU Maiden Special Weight

This big, strapping gray from Chad Brown's stable will attempt to win Friday's nine-furlong Withers Stakes at Aqueduct coming off an 86-Beyer, 5 3/4-length wiring of a one-turn-mile maiden special weight field there Dec. 6.

Brown has won the Withers twice, with Risk Taking in 2021 and Early Voting in 2022. Both of those colts then had two-month layoffs until the GII Wood Memorial Stakes and then started in the GI Preakness Stakes.

Risk Taking (who is still in training as an allowance-level steeplechaser) was seventh in the Wood and eighth in the Preakness. Early Voting ran second in the Wood and won the Preakness.

This son of Practical Joke (150,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP; $295,000 RNA OBSMAR) clipped heels and fell in his favored Sept. 13 debut over 6 1/2 furlongs, then returned Oct. 26 to finish a pressing second at the same distance as the 4-5 favorite.

The stretch to a mile benefitted Schoolyardsuperman, who was allowed to drift up to 3.61-1 odds for career start number three. He handled pace pressure down on the inside and drew off under strong urging.

8) LIBERTY NATIONAL (c, Maxfield–Virtuoso, by Awesome Again). 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. O-Brookdale Racing, Inc. & Fern Circle Stables; B-Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales history: $525,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-1-1-0, $90,675. Last start: 2nd Dec. 20 Gun Runner Stakes.

At first glance, Liberty National's 80-Beyer, runner-up try as the beaten 13-10 favorite in the Dec. 20 Gun Runner Stakes doesn't resonate as a productive effort.

This closer from Kenny McPeek's barn was afforded a fairly quick early tempo, yet the field chased home a caving pacemaker in a tepid fourth quarter of :26.30 and a dawdling last sixteenth in :7.48, with that latter fraction representing the slowest final half-furlong of any points-awarding 1 1/16-miles Derby prep in at least the past 3 1/2 seasons.

But look beyond the abbreviated chart comment of “rallied inside, short,” and you'll see that this $525,000 KEESEP colt got sideswiped leaving the gate by the eventual winner, then gained good ground up the fence and ended up galloping out several lengths in front of the field after the wire.

Considering that McPeek has described Liberty National as a large-framed colt with an “aircraft carrier body type,” plus a pedigree that suggests longer distances could be more to his liking, his under-the-lights experience when facing winners for the first time might not be as poor a stepping stone as it seems on paper.

Liberty National is entered in Friday's rescheduled Southwest Stakes with a 10-1 morning line and a gate seven draw in a field of 14.

9) RENEGADE (c, Into Mischief–Spice Is Nice, by Curlin). O-Robert Low, Lawana L. Low, and Repole Stable; B-Robert Low & Lawana Low (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales history: $975,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-0-2-1, $79,000. Last start: 2nd Dec. 6 GII Remsen Stakes.

Although still a maiden, this $975,000 KEESEP colt has kept good company in New York.

Renegade was third behind a 17 3/4-length winner at Saratoga in his Aug. 16 debut. He finished a head better than No. 2-ranked Paladin, but was disqualified for stretch interference, in a one-turn-mile maiden special weight win Oct. 16. He then was second, beaten two lengths by Paladin in the Dec. 6 Remsen Stakes.

This son of Into Mischief from Todd Pletcher's stable is expected to be entered Wednesday for this coming Saturday's Sam F. Davis Stakes going 1 1/16 miles.

Pletcher told DRF.com last week that a possible path to Louisville for Renegade might include the GI Arkansas Derby Mar. 28 if he runs well at Tampa.

10) IRON HONOR (c, Nyquist–Orenica, by Blame). O-St. Elias Stable, William H. Lawrence and Cathi Glassman; B-Mike Freeny and Pat Freeny; T-Chad C. Brown. Sales history: $230,000 Ylg '24 KEEJAN; $475,000 Ylg KEESEP. Lifetime Record 1-1-0-0, $46,750. Last start: WON Dec. 13 Aqueduct Maiden Special Weight.

Iron Honor, a May 1 foal by Nyquist, has been breezing at Payson Park since a 95-Beyer debut win at Aqueduct Dec. 13. The second- and third-place finishers out of that six-furlong sprint both came back to win their next starts.

In that win, Iron Honor ($230,000 KEEJAN; $475,000 KEESEP) tracked, engaged the favorite, then edged away to a 1 1/2-length score.

Brown said in January that, “He's a horse that mentally needed time to come around, but now I'm seeing the best of him.”

11) GOLDEN TEMPO (Curlin–Carrumba, by Bernardini). 'TDN Rising Star, presented by Hagyard'. O/B-Phipps Stable & St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Cherie DeVaux. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $183,000. Last start: WON Jan. 17 GIII Lecomte Stakes.

Golden Tempo, a Phipps Stable and St. Elias Stables homebred son of Curlin out of a Bernardini mare, won the Lecomte Stakes in last-to-first fashion, letting loose with a three-furlong run while weaving through the pack prior to diving down to the inner rail to prevail by three-quarters of a length (81 Beyer).

Trainer Cherie DeVaux ended up running one-two in the Lecomte, as stablemate Mesquite (Union Rags) came flying six wide to complete an exacta of the race's two favorites.

DeVaux said the plan will be to keep Golden Tempo and Mesquite separated on the Derby trail from here on out.

“I don't feel either one of them is even close to their top yet,” DeVaux told TDN the day after the Lecomte. “We have time. Going into a race like the Derby, you want them peaking at that time. Also, in these races, you always want to win, but if they run a big number then they are probably going to regress the next time they run. Showing improvement each time and getting there and winning is the best-case scenario.”

Golden Tempo winning the Lecomte | Hodges Photography

12) MY WORLD (Essential Quality–Quebec, by Into Mischief). O-Robert V. LaPenta & Madaket Stables LLC; B-Cove Springs, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '24 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MSW, 4-3-0-0, $217,750. Last start: WON Jan. 3 Jerome Stakes.

My World (Essential Quality), a hard-trying gray who has won two straight one-turn-mile listed stakes at Aqueduct, is being sent overseas in search of yet another one-turn-mile engagement.

This one's far more ambitious than either the five-horse Nashua Stakes or the four-horse Jerome Stakes: The G3 Saudi Derby Feb. 14 carries a $1.5-million purse and 30 Kentucky Derby qualifying points (15-9-6-3).

This $350,000 KEESEP colt has punched above his weight, so to speak, like when bullishly bouncing a rival off the inside rail to make a winning move in the Nashua, or when becoming emboldened after brushing with the heavily favored runner-up in deep stretch of his Jerome score.

But My World also has caused some of his own in-race adversity by lugging in and not being fully focused. His connections have stated that although the colt has grown up a bit, there is still room for improvement.

So after having recently shipped from New York to Florida, My World will now have to fly to Riyadh and then back, presumably in time for another points-earning prep if he is to stay on the Derby trail.

That's a big ask for a lighter-framed horse who needs to be a bit more mentally dialed in. But My World's tenacity has been appealing enough to keep him on the Derby radar for now.

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