Handicapping the Kentucky Derby Preps: Coolmore Fountain of Youth, Gotham & Rebel

[Wandering Eyes]

TDN's Senior Racing Editor Steve Sherack provides analysis for this weekend's trio of GI Kentucky Derby preps–Saturday's GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Park and GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct and Sunday's GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn Park.

GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S. – Commandment (Into Mischief) is a deserving favorite and the horse to beat in this absolutely loaded renewal of the Coolmore Fountain of Youth. He kicked off the New Year in style, splitting horses at the top of the stretch en route to a runaway win in the one-turn mile Mucho Macho Man S. Jan. 3. The bay continues to get better with every start for Brad Cox and figures to sit a fantastic trip beneath Irad Ortiz, Jr. from his inside draw in this first try around two turns in a race packed with speed. Produced by GI Spinaway S. heroine Sippican Harbor (Orb), Commandment is bred on the same Into Mischief x A.P. Indy cross as 2025 Horse of the Year and last year's Fountain of Youth winner Sovereignty.

The two-for-two, $1.3-million KEESEP yearling Jackson Hole (Nyquist) is still learning on the job and took a major leap forward with a front-running, 'Rising Star' performance around two turns for Todd Pletcher at second asking at Fair Grounds Jan. 17. His final time of 1:44.71 for 1 1/16 miles was faster than Golden Tempo (1:44.98) in the GIII Lecomte S. and the highly regarded Reagan's Honor (1:45.03) in a maiden special weight on the same program.

Fellow 'Rising Star' Chief Wallabee (Constitution) heads straight to the big leagues off a visually impressive debut win (came home in a remarkable :11.99) going seven furlongs at Gulfstream Jan. 10, a move you just don't see from Bill Mott.

Selection: #4 Commandment (2-1).

GIII Gotham S. – Hammond (Charlatan) is very playable at a price off a better-than-it-looks, third-place finish behind his unbeaten Saffie Joseph, Jr.-trained stablemate and FOY-bound Solitude Dude in the seven-furlong Swale S. Jan. 31. Off to a slow start while making his first attempt in two-plus months, he made a sweeping, four-wide blitz from last of six on the far turn into very easy early fractions and just couldn't keep the momentum rolling in the stretch. He'll have much more pace to run into this time around and should only benefit from having that race under his belt if he can handle the stretch to a mile here.

Impossible to look past 6-5 morning-line favorite Iron Honor (Nyquist)–and that gaudy 95 Beyer Speed Figure earned as a debuting 2-year-old for Chad Brown at the Big A Dec. 13–in this first attempt versus winners. He defeated two next-out winners going six furlongs that day, including the re-opposing Right to Party (Constitution), who will be motoring home late at a price.

Selection: #2 Hammond (5-1).

GII Rebel S. – Willing to take a shot against the two likely favorites with the lightly raced and well-drawn Class President (Uncle Mo). Looked like a promising two-turn prospect striding out beautifully for a smart debut win for Todd Pletcher over next-out winner Easterly going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Dec. 27, then turned back slightly and was a solid runner-up in the aforementioned Swale. Should be forwardly placed beneath John Velazquez and is bred to handle (produced by a MSW & GSP Quality Road mare) every bit of this 1 1/16-mile Rebel distance.

Very much looking forward to the 3-year-old debut of GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity runner-up and 'Rising Star' Blackout Time (Not This Time), who will vie for favoritism with the returning GII Los Alamitos Futurity winner and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile fourth Litmus Test (Nyquist).

Selection: #3 Class President (10-1).

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