The Week in Review: More Seasoning Adds Welcome Spice to Derby Chase

[Wandering Eyes]

The 107-day wait is over. Finally we’ve had a powerful performance in a meaningful stakes race on the 2019 GI Kentucky Derby trail.

Did War of Will (War Front)’s beastly score in Saturday’s GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds set into motion a seismic shift within the top tier of Classics-caliber sophomores? I certainly think it did. Not everyone will agree.

Either way, the stylishly aggressive victory by the rapidly improving colt is sure to spark welcome winter debate in an era in which the 1-2-3 pecking order of Derby contenders annually solidifies once the horses cross the wire for the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and doesn’t thaw until many of those hopefuls fail to dominate off long layoffs at age three.

In the most recent edition of TDN‘s Derby Top 12 published earlier this month, six of the top-ranked seven horses had yet to start in 2019. The lone exception was War of Will, who earned a No. 4 charting after his four-length manhandling of a decent GIII Lecomte S. crew on Jan. 19.

The less-is-more approach on the Derby trail now means two prep races before the first Saturday in May is evolving as a norm. And last year’s undefeated romp from the maiden ranks through the Triple Crown series by Justify in only 111 days will likely embolden other owners and trainers to test the long-held belief that some form of a 2-year-old foundation is desirable/necessary for Classics success.

That leaves well-meant contenders who have, say, five races at age two and maybe four scheduled races post-Breeders’ Cup prior to taking aim at the Derby a bit out of vogue at the moment.

Yet that describes War of Will’s increasingly impressive past performance block, and owner Gary Barber and trainer Mark Casse have no reason to want to trade places with any lighter-raced rivals, regardless of their juvenile credentials.

“I think [seasoning] is important for him,” Casse said in the post-race winner’s circle interview broadcast by Fair Grounds. “He needs to get the experience. As I said to Gary Barber when we drew the [14] post, ‘You know, all this stuff is going to help down the road.'” Rather than scratching as soon as the pill-pull yielded a gate draw perceived as disadvantageous, Casse viewed the next-to-outermost post assignment as a learning opportunity for his even-money favorite.

A turf-pedigreed $298,550 ARQMAY purchase, War of Will began his career on the grass at Woodbine, and even though he ran third in his seven-furlong debut, Casse thought highly enough of the colt to run him in the GI Summer S. He was beaten only three-quarters of a length against a top-notch field that day, then led until deep stretch at Keeneland in the GIII Bourbon S. as the beaten favorite.

Those efforts were good enough to merit a try in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, and being caught four wide on both turns cost the 15-1 War of Will precious real estate that might have made the difference in his 3 1/2-length defeat.

Three weeks later, War of Will broke his maiden by five lengths in the slop in a Churchill Downs MSW that was clocked only .16 slower than the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. later that day.

By the time the Lecomte S. rolled around nearly two months later, the generally low-key Casse was openly proclaiming how gifted he thought War of Will was as a dirt horse. He said he confidently told some friends “We have a big chance to win the Derby this year,” underscoring how “I don’t usually say things like that, so that tells you what I think of him.”

The 8-5 War of Will was a pent-up threat in the Lecomte before blasting by the overmatched pacemakers in hand and being kept to task to win by four lengths and galloping out robustly after the finish.

In Saturday’s Risen Star, jockey Tyler Gaffalione did, in fact, have to manage a learning opportunity straight out the gate when War of Will broke sharply but Dunph (Temple City) to his inside and Gun It (Tapit) to the outside were both intent on attaining the lead.

“The horse inside of us broke pretty well, and then we had the horse outside of us showing some speed,” Gaffalione said. “So we just took [back] off of them, and once I got behind those horses he relaxed nicely and took the dirt well.”

Once it became clear that the resisting-restraint Gun It would be the backstretch target, the into-the-bit War of Will tracked him with metronomic precision, seizing the lead when cued to quicken three furlongs out. Gaffalione roused him for run entering the long Fair Grounds stretch to keep the colt’s mind on business, and a right-handed crack of the crop resulted in a noticeable switch to a higher gear that likely does not represent the deepest reserve of War of Will’s overdrive.

“He’s very professional. He does everything the right way,” Gaffalione said. “He gets out of the gate well. He puts himself where he needs to be, and the rest is up to just getting him to relax and switch off [from being keen]. I made the lead a little bit earlier than I wanted to. He was kind of waiting on horses, but he still had plenty of run left.”

Casse agreed. “I have the utmost confidence in [War of Will]. Tyler had to hit the gas pedal a little early, and it got him cranking. My biggest concern, because he did it the first couple times he ran, is he’ll make the lead and start pulling himself up.”

Casse has started six Derby horses in his career but has yet to finish in the top three. Two years ago, he started the 2017 Derby season with the top-ranked Breeders’ Cup-winning 2-year-old champ, but the learning curve turned out precariously steep. Classic Empire (Pioneerof the Nile)–known to be a bit of a head case–flopped in his sophomore debut, suffered setbacks from a foot abscess and then a back ailment, then redeemed himself in the very last prep race of the season by storming to victory in impressive fashion. Classic Empire’s fourth-place try in the Derby was remarkable considering he got slammed and cut up leaving the gate. He rebounded to run second in the GI Preakness S.

To win the Kentucky Derby, Casse said on Saturday, “You’d better have some seasoning. This was another step. I’ve been fortunate to train a lot of good horses, and [War of Will] is one of the best. I think he’s a superstar.”

It’s been quite a month for Casse. In addition to War of Will’s emergence as an A-list Derby threat, another trainee, Dream Maker (Tapit), asserted himself as a Classics candidate with a commanding first-level allowance win at Fair Grounds Feb. 9. Five days later, Casse himself was announced as one of three trainer finalists who will appear on the 2019 Hall of Fame ballot.

But on Saturday, Casse was fully focused on War of Will, and he wasn’t being smug when he matter-of-factly summed up his colt’s projected path to the Derby by deadpanning, “One down, a few more to go.”

When asked if the GII Louisiana Derby would be next for War of Will, Casse saw no need to keep his next-race plans opaque.

“Oh, I think so,” Casse said without hesitation. “You know me, I like to run, and we don’t really shy away from anybody.”

 

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