Pedigree Insights: It’s a New Day for Maximum Security

[Wandering Eyes]

When the votes were cast for the 2013 Eclipse Awards, we had the unusual situation where the winner of the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile did not land the 2-year-old male award, even though he was to top the Experimental Free Handicap. The Juvenile winner, New Year’s Day, garnered 99 points, compared to Shared Belief’s 115. The voting was arguably swayed by the fact that Shared Belief looked hugely promising, having won his three starts, including the GIII Hollywood Prevue and GI CashCall Futurity, by a combined margin of 20 1/2 lengths. New Year’s Day, on the other hand, had already been retired because of a non-displaced chip to his left hind sesamoid.

Although the commentary for the Juvenile said that the runner-up Havana “did everything but win it,” there had still been plenty to like about New Year’s Day’s effort, which was his second victory from three starts. The way he finished had suggested he’d have few problems with the extra 330 yards of the GI Kentucky Derby. All he had to do was overcome the hoodoo surrounding Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners in the Churchill Downs’ Classic!

When I reviewed New Year’s Day’s performance for the TDN, I began as follows:

That was a pretty scary statistic that the NBC team trotted out after the 30th edition of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile–than not a single horse from the 2012 Juvenile had made it to the Kentucky Derby only six months later.

   Then there’s the fact that only one of the first 29 winners of the Juvenile has gone on to take the Kentucky Derby. This statistic highlights the huge chasm which separates the two races which, more often than not, fall to the future winners of their respective age-group’s Eclipse Award. Perhaps it was a shrewd decision by the connections of Honor Code to reroute their very promising son of A.P. Indy to the GII Remsen S., rather than subject him to the demands of a trip to Santa Anita.

   However, before anyone writes off the Kentucky Derby prospects of New Year’s Day, the 30th winner of the Juvenile, it is essential to point out that he shares the same sire–Street Cry–as Street Sense, the only colt to break the Juvenile hoodoo in the Derby. It’s easy to forget that Street Sense was an unexpected winner of the 2006 Juvenile at Churchill Downs, starting at 16-1. Although New Year’s Day’s trainer Bob Baffert made it clear that he had higher hopes of his other Juvenile contender, Tap It Rich, he wasn’t blind to New Year’s Day’s potential.

   “He can get the distance,” Baffert said as they entered the starting gate. “Also he’s got a little bit of speed and he’s tough and durable and he’s one that we should hear from down the road.”

Of course New Year’s Day and Street Sense have more in common than just their sire. Whereas Street Sense is out of a daughter of Dixieland Band (also broodmare sire of another Kentucky Derby winner in Monarchos), New Year’s Day has a dam by Dixieland Band’s son Dixie Union.

I should add that Nyquist has since emulated Street Sense’s double, but there is still a gulf between the two races. Only three of the 13 runners in New Year’s Day’s Juvenile contested the Kentucky Derby, finishing sixth, eighth and 10th behind California Chrome, but New Year’s Day has now entered the picture for the 2019 Derby. He’s the sire of the former claimer Maximum Security, who maintained his unbeaten record in plundering the GI Florida Derby.

In starting his stallion career soon after topping the Experimental, New Year’s Day followed in the footsteps of Hail To Reason and Raise A Native, but he wasn’t to enjoy these great stallions’ immediate success–Hail To Reason’s small first crop featured the champion mare Straight Deal, while Raise A Native’s 11 first-crop foals included Exclusive Native, who was to give us two winners of the Kentucky Derby.

Needless to say, today’s crops are generally much larger than they used to be. New Year’s Day covered 77 mares at a fee of $12,500 in his first season at Hill ‘n’ Dale, for 52 live foals. Reducing his fee to $7,500 in his second season boosted his book to 98 mares, for 60 foals, and year three saw him cover 92 mares at $5,000, for 56 foals. Then things became difficult. Even with his fee reduced to $3,500 in 2017, he covered only 32 mares for 21 foals, and his 2018 book comprised only 25 mares. It therefore came as no great surprise when an announcement was made in January that New Year’s Day had been sold to Brazilian owner/breeder Luis Felipe Brandao dos Santos.

Prior to Maximum Security’s breakthrough, New Year’s Day’s best representatives included Yesterday’s News, runner-up in the GI Starlet S., and the black-type winners Dat Day, Day Raider, Cafe Du Monde and Parade of Roses.

It is important to mention that Maximum Security’s achievements have come well before his actual third birthday, which occurs May 14. His dam Lil Indy has been sold several times, including for as little as $2,200 as a yearling in 2008. Although her price was $80,000 when she sold in foal to Pioneerof The Nile in January 2014, it fell to $11,000 when she was offered in foal to New Year’s Day last November.

Lil Indy’s giveaway price as a yearling came before her half-brother Flat Out had become a multiple Grade I winner, taking the Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 5 and 6-year-old in 2011 and 2012 and the Cigar Mile as a 7-year-old. Lil Indy is a three-parts-sister to this son of Flatter, as she too was sired by a son of A.P. Indy. Her sire Anasheed–like Flatter–failed to win a black-type race but he was third in the GIII Arlington- Washington Futurity as a juvenile. He was also very well connected, coming from the female line which had provided A.P. Indy with the Grade I winners Mineshaft, Runup The Colors, Tomisue’s Delight and Little Belle and his pedigree was strong enough to earn him a place at stud in Florida.

Anasheed made little impact with his 112 foals, but his presence in Maximum Security’s pedigree doesn’t rule out a bold Kentucky Derby bid by the Florida Derby winner. In recent years we have seen Kentucky Derby winners out of mares by Yankee Gentleman, who won nothing better than a restricted stakes race, and Not For Love, who failed to win a stakes race of any sort.

I was quite impressed by Maximum Security’s performance at Gulfstream, even if his rivals’ riders helped him dominate. With his May birthday, he’s entitled to improve further and it’s going to be interesting to see how he progresses, especially when he isn’t given an easy lead.

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