So Which Baffert Horse Will Win the Kentucky Derby?

[Wandering Eyes]

No one has ever saddled the first three favorites in the GI Kentucky Derby, but that’s exactly what’s going to happen if Improbable (City Zip) wins next week’s GI Arkansas Derby.

Of course, there are no guarantees that Bob Baffert will win the Derby, but at the conclusion of the GI Santa Anita Derby, the third of three major Kentucky Derby preps run Saturday, it’s hard to imagine that he won’t. His horses are just better than everyone else’s.

Not that that is some sort of shocking news. Baffert has won two Triple Crowns, five Kentucky Derbies and nine Santa Anita Derbies. He is one Kentucky Derby win away from tying Ben Jones as the winningest trainer in the race’s history. When it comes to developing quality 3-year-old males and winning big races with them, no one else comes close.

Only Baffert could come out of a Derby prep where he ran two horses and both ran so well that either one could be the favorite at Churchill Downs.

That said, Santa Anita Derby winner Roadster (Quality Road) looks he might be the narrow favorite May 4. Back in July, he was the one Baffert thought was his top hope for the major 3-year-old races. He dominated in a maiden special weight race at Del Mar and then came back in the GI Del Mar Futurity. He was the 7-10 favorite that day. Game Winner (Candy Ride {Arg}) was Baffert’s “other” horse, sent off at 8-5. Game Winner won, but it was later discovered that Roadster, who was third, had a breathing problem and needed corrective surgery. Once recovered, he began training again and Baffert had him ready for a 2 1/2-length win in an allowance race.

Roadster was even better Saturday, winning over 1-2 favorite Game Winner. With Mike Smith aboard, he was patiently ridden and didn’t appear to have much of a chance on the far turn as he was about eighth lengths back. But Smith obviously knew what he had underneath him. When he called on Roadster, the colt took off. Smith was just a passenger as he flew by Game Winner and third-place finisher Instagrand (Into Mischief). He won by a half-length.

Yet, you could argue that he was not the best horse in the Santa Anita Derby and that Game Winner was. Last year’s 2-year-old champion was a hard-luck loser in the GII Rebel S., losing the head bob to Omaha Beach (War Front). Ironically, it was Smith that also engineered that upset of Game Winner, riding the Richard Mandella-trained colt. This was not jockey Joel Rosario’s finest hour. In a six-horse field, he had Game Winner four-wide on the first turn and three-wide on the second. Meanwhile, Smith hugged the rail on the first turn and stayed there until about midway on the second turn, when he wheeled out for a clear run at the leaders.

According to the Trakus chart, Game Winner ran 38 feet further than Roadster did and his average speed for the entire race was a bit faster, 37.1 miles per hour to 37.0 for Roadster.

In just another week, we’ll get another look at Improbable, who could turn out to be even better than Game Winner and Roadster. He lost for the first time when second in one of the split divisions of the Rebel, but , like Game Winner Saturday, he took the scenic route under young Drayden Van Dyke. Four wide on both turns, he lost to a horse, Long Range Toddy (Take Charge Indy), who saved all the ground.

As for Instragrand, he remains the biggest disappointment among this year’s crop of 3-year-olds. With a perfect trip loose on the lead, he had no answer when Game Winner and Roadster came after him.

He looked like a superstar after winning the GII Best Pal S. in August when owner Larry Best made an unorthodox decision and ordered trainer Jerry Hollendorfer to give the colt the rest of the year off. Plenty of good 2-year-olds peak early and don’t develop at three, and that may be the case with Instagrand. It’s more likely that Best’s decision backfired and that sitting in the barn for three months when he should have been gearing up for the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was something that set the horse back.

It was a great day at Santa Anita, where the card also included a thrilling finish in the GI Santa Anita H., which was won by Gift Box (Twirling Candy). But it wasn’t just the races. There were no breakdowns or incidents of any kind, and had there been, it would have been disastrous, not just for Santa Anita, but for the entire sport. The last thing the anti-racing people needed was more fuel for their fire, especially fuel that came from the biggest day of the meet.

Few expected that the GII Wood Memorial S. or the GII Blue Grass S. would overshadow the Santa Anita Derby or produce a horse that would be among the top three or four choices in the Derby. They weren’t wrong.

Both races have been hurt badly by Gulfstream’s decision to move the GI Florida Derby to five weeks before the Kentucky Derby. When it was seven weeks out, the horse that came out of that race would be given another prep for the Derby, often in the Wood or the Blue Grass. That doesn’t happen anymore as the Florida Derby starters don’t race again until Derby Day.

That’s left the Blue Grass and the Wood relying on late-developers, GII Tampa Bay Derby starters and second-stringers, the reason why both were downgraded.

In the Blue Grass, Vekoma (Candy Ride {Arg}) raced a bit greenly in the stretch, but was a clear winner over Win Win Win (Hat Trick {Jpn}), who had a troubled trip. He’ll likely be in the 15-1, 20-1 range for the Derby. Kudos to trainer George Weaver, who passed the $1 million Florida Derby in order to find an easier assignment. He got everything he wanted, a starting spot in the Derby and a $600,000 check for his owners.

Over at Aqueduct, Tacitus (Tapit) won the Wood Memorial, which will give Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott a certain starter in the Kentucky Derby. He’s a beautifully bred horse and did what he had to do to collect the win in the Wood. But much as the case will be with Vekoma, come Derby time, handicappers probably won’t be impressed by the quality of horses that he defeated.

Neither are horses Baffert needs to fear. That may not be the case with Omaha Beach, and with a win in the Arkansas Derby, he will pose a serious threat to the Baffert trio.

In the meantime, the Baffert assembly line keeps cranking them out and it sure looks like the 145th Kentucky Derby has his name on it.

 

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