TwinSpires.com Road to the Triple Crown Throwdown: Arkansas Derby & Lexington

[Wandering Eyes]

Ed DeRosa of TwinSpires.com takes on TDN’s Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap each prep race leading up to the GI Kentucky Derby. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets-highest bankroll after Arkansas Derby/Lexington day wins.

DiDonato: Santa Anita Derby, Wood and Blue Grass – Haikal settled for third from far back and Lucky Lee didn’t do much running, but I loved the kick Roadster showed to defeat his more seasoned stablemate in the Santa Anita Derby. Not that he’ll be any kind of price, but he’s looking like my Derby horse at this point. Two more chances to get run down on this final prep day, but it certainly won’t be easy. Let’s keep it chalky… Bankroll: $11,725.

GI Arkansas Derby – Omaha Beach feels like one of those horses for whom the light bulb has come on. He seems to have been very well regarded from the start of his career, but after just missing three times in a row was starting to look like a professional maiden. He put it all together when romping by nine lengths in the slop and on the cutback (ahead of last week’s very impressive turf graduate One Bad Boy), and took another step forward when fending off none other than Game Winner in one of the GII Rebel divisions. It’s worth noting (maybe not depending on who you ask) that Omaha Beach galloped out well in front of Game Winner, and the 2-year-old champ flattered Omaha Beach’s effort with another strong showing at Santa Anita. I also thought Omaha Beach was forced to move a bit too soon last time. Selection: #3 Omaha Beach (2-1). 

GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. – I’ve been pretty impressed with Shang‘s efforts against Louisiana-breds. Obviously, the waters get much deeper for him here, but he seems up to the task. His dam was classy–she hit the board a couple times at the Grade III level and was fourth behind Octave in the 2007 GI CCA Oaks. The pace looks likely to be pretty solid, and he seems like one who could find a good ground-saving spot off of it. Selection: #1 Shang (10-1).

Sherack: Santa Anita Derby, Wood and Blue Grass – Nolo Contesto, Outshine and Dream Maker made for a very rough day at the windows. We’ll see if DiDonato’s out of reach or not, but two more price plays still to come. Nice to clinch showing a profit in here at the least. Bankroll: $5230.

GI Arkansas Derby – Is there enough early pace to see a complete meltdown? The promising Country House made a strong, wide move into a very slow tempo in the Louisiana Derby and has every right to move forward off that fourth-place finish with the proper set-up here. After going all-in on the stretch-running Laughing Fox in the Rebel, he’ll be on some of my tickets at a big price here, too. Selection: #8 Country House (12-1).

GIII Lexington S. – Owendale looked like he was on his way to good things this spring after two strong efforts at Fair Grounds, then failed to fire after encountering a less-than-ideal trip from far back in the Risen Star. He appears to be training quite well with a pair of bullets for trainer Brad Cox since his latest. Let’s see if he can give a better showing getting back to his preferred trip of sitting closer to the pace with the rider change to Geroux. Selection: #8 Owendale (12-1).

DeRosa: Santa Anita Derby, Wood and Blue Grass – Instagrand placed third (Santa Anita Derby); Joevia finished seventh and was DQ’d to 11th (Wood Memorial); and Aquadini was 12th (Blue Grass). Bankroll: $3250.

GI Arkansas Derby – The Arkansas Derby does offer some real price alternatives. Galilean is the horse I’m most excited about from a Kentucky Derby standpoint, and of the favorites I prefer Improbable to Omaha Beach, but we’re going to try to go out with a bang with Jersey Agenda. I saw this horse win an entry- level allowance race in January on the Smarty Jones undercard, and subsequent stakes tries did not go great, but the trips weren’t great, and he always seems to be trying. Call him a Long Range Toddy light in that regard. At 30-to-1, I’ll play that he runs back to the race I think I saw in his 3-year-old debut. Selection: #10 Jersey Agenda (30-1).

GIII Lexington S. – There are only two chances left to catch the leaders, but I can’t in good faith reach too far in the Stonestreet Lexington S. considering Anothertwistafate is my Kentucky Derby #1 and favored to get the necessary points for a run on May 4 at Churchill Downs. Obviously, 30-to-1 on Derby day is a lot more enticing than 2-to-1 three weeks earlier, but I have a lot of respect for this horse’s talent and just see him as being capable of blitzing the field. Selection: #4 Anothertwistafate (2-1).

Click for Arkansas Derby and Lexington S. Ultimate PPs from Brisnet.com.

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