Not Too Much Of A Good Thing

[Wandering Eyes]

Stallion book sizes are making headlines again after the U.S. Jockey Club mooted the prospect of curtailing them in an effort to protect the gene pool. Whatever the pros and cons of large books may be, one often cited is the negative effect oversupply of yearlings by the same stallion can have on yearling prices. It has been put forward countless times in recent years. But the facts don’t exactly bear it out.

Here are some statistics to prove the point. In the three years 2016 to 2018, there were a total of 2,663 yearlings sold in Europe sired by stallions with 50-plus sale yearlings and who stood for between £10,000 and £30,000. As many as 59% of this group of yearling sold for a price equal to or higher than the conception fee, plus £20,000. A second group of yearlings–2,322 in all–by sires who stood within the same price range but had between 10 and 49 total yearlings at the sales fared less well, producing only 36% of yearlings to sell for the conception fee, plus £20,000.

In practice this makes complete sense. Yearlings by the same stallion are not like cars, each identical to the other. True, they may have some broad similarities, but different dams mean they are completely different propositions for buyers. Even full brothers and sisters can be vastly different in appearance. Buyers simply don’t pass up on yearlings they love, just because there are more by the same stallion in the catalogue. No, each is judged on its own merits. That is why there is always a range of prices for every sire at a sale, including the highly desirable stallions with a small representation.

It is not the number of yearlings by a sire at the sales that is key, it is the buyers’ perception of the sire that is important. Yes, more yearlings means more unprofitable yearlings, but that is offset by more profitable yearlings, too. There may be other good reasons for curtailing the supply of yearlings by the same sire at the sales, but a reduced opportunity to make money, it seems, is not one of them.

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